By Sushil Kutty
Bahraich is Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath’s big test. How does he handle the crisis will be his ticket to success or failure in the 10 bypolls, and within the party? So far, he seems to be doing ‘ok’. Enforcing law & order at any cost and a “danga-free Uttar Pradesh” and the effects of Bahraich on the soon-to-be held 10 bypolls will extend up to 2027, when assembly elections are due.
Those who did not vote for the BJP in Lok Sabha 2024 will also be watching. The PDA, waiting and praying for a repeat of Lok Sabha 2024. When Bahraich broke, it surprised the Yogi. The expectation was Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath would fail in enforcing law & order and ensuring a “danga-free” Uttar Pradesh.
On both counts, the Chief Minister appears to have rebounded with a certain elan. Quick action and tough policing in Bahraich did the trick. There was just the one killing, of Ram Gopal Mishra. The arson and vandalism of the next morning, on October 14, when homes and business establishments in the “Muslim area” were attacked, was brought to a halt without further loss of lives, and injuries to people.
The police brought a surging mob of Hindus to their senses with top police officers leading from the front. Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath couldn’t have asked for more. Then came the bonus: the “half encounters” of two of the absconding killers of Ram Gopal Mishra. ‘Half-encounter’ is firing the bullet at the leg below the knee. Five members of the “killer-family” are now in police custody including the ‘ring-leader’ father.
Sarfaraz’s sister echoed Samajwadi Party supremo Akhilesh Yadav’s “persecution of Muslims” claim. Akhilesh Yadav took exception to Yogi Adityanath’s “half-encounter tactic” to communally polarize the electorate. Not that Yadav’s Samajwadi Party did not attempt to do the same with aggressive Muslim appeasement. In this “Hamam” everybody is without clothes. Actually, the Yogi and the Yadav, they are at the two extreme ends of the political spectrum.
And this is a particularly vulnerable time for both the antagonists. The10 bypolls, whoever wins them will have the upper-hand in 2027. The Lok Sabha elections results gave the upper-hand to Akhilesh Yadav. But the Yogi dumped Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s “sabka saath, sabka vikas” and the UP Chief Minister’s “batoge toh katoge” slogan is the BJP’s calling card for all-time to come.
It is the flavour of the campaign for the 10 bypolls and it is also expected to reverberate in Maharashtra and Jharkhand, just like it did in Haryana, and in Jammu. With “batoge toh katoge”, the BJP has recovered its footing with the Hindu votebank that Prime Minister Narendra Modi had taken for granted. Akhilesh Yadav is no longer his confident self. He faces not only a resurgent Yogi Adityanath, but also the Muslim vote-bank’s newfound fascination for Rahul Gandhi.
There’s a Muslim undercurrent favouring Rahul Gandhi. Even in Maharashtra and in Jharkhand. When the Uddhav Shiv Sena suddenly decided to turn on the Congress after Haryana, it was the UBT Sena competing with the Congress for the Muslim vote in Maharashtra, just like the Samajwadi Party in Uttar Pradesh.
For Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath, he knows the quick-responses and the “half-encounters” have upset Akhilesh Yadav’s plans. Akhilesh is not the sort to beat around the bush, he shoots from the hip and answers no questions. But the Yogi with the system firmly under his belt, with the reputation for tough decisions, is a tough ACT to follow.
What if “batoge toh katoge” works its magic in the UP bypolls? What if Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath succeeds in quelling riot-after-riot? Don’t forget, Bahraich was preceded by Dasna in Ghaziabad, where a “10,000-strong Muslim mob” had descended on the Dasna Devi temple, shouting ‘Sar Tan Se Juda’ at the top of their voices, with mindless violence in mind.
The Yogi’s police dealt with Dasna in the same manner with which it dealt with Bahraich. Quick action and quicker resolution. The majority community believe they always had the right person in Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath to ensure the “balance” that Akhilesh Yadav spoke of on October 17, when taking potshots at Yogi’s “half-encounters”. Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath’s tough handling of law & order is what separates him from Akhilesh who has always had a rather lax outlook on handling law & order issues.
Can the Samajwadi Party’s ‘PDA’ withstand the Yogi’s rigorous application of “batoge toh katoge”, considering that Akhilesh Yadav also has to keep track of Muslim fascination for Rahul Gandhi? In 10 years of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, Rahul Gandhi has been the only politician to get Modi sagging against the ropes. The gist is “Muslim mohallas” in Uttar Pradesh are in flux and the claimants for the Muslim vote are suspicious of each other.
That being said, Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath also cannot afford to take risks. Neither can Prime Minister Narendra Modi. For the Hindu vote-bank, law & order and a “danga-free” life are a must. There will be attempts to disturb communal harmony and it will be up to the government to keep law & order and peace.
The killers of Ram Gopal Mishra are in police custody with two of them battling bullet wounds. Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath’s tough-guy image stands. A visit to the “Muslim mohalla” in the Bahraich locality, where the Durga Visarjan procession was pelted with stones, had only locked doors to show. A burned-out motorcycle showroom with the legend ‘Hero’ on its tin headband and gutted two-wheelers with nothing heroic about them.
The story as it stands is, a semblance of Hindu unity has been achieved. The Samajwadi Party-Congress combine will have to work doubly hard to woo the Muslim vote-bank. And inserting “Constitution will be changed” and “reservation will end” into the narrative will be difficult the second time. The BJP has more or less adopted Yogi Adityanath’s “Batoge toh Katoge”. It will also go into the Maharashtra and Jharkhand assembly elections with the resounding success of “Batoge toh Katoge” in Haryana. (IPA
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