Nitya Chakraborty
As the year 2024 is ending and India is on the threshold of beginning a New Year 2025, Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his senior officials in both PMO and the external affairs ministry are relaxed and looking for positive developments in the coming year for Indian diplomacy. Narendra Modi has reasons to be politically upbeat after the BJP’s big success in the latest assembly elections in Maharashtra and Haryana as also in by polls in Uttar Pradesh but his real reason for relief is the coming appointment of the PIO Kashyap Patel to the post of the Director of FBI under the Trump administration.
Only six weeks ago, the PMO and the South Block were in jitters as the news broke about the Canadian agencies interception of the Indian officials correspondence regarding the alleged plot to murder the Sikh extremist lawyer S P Pannun. Canadian minister and officials even dared to mention the name of the home minister Amit Shah. Even the US sources gave enough indication that they were privy to the information and the members of the ‘Five Eyes’ collaborate in gathering intelligence vetted by the prime member U.S The external affairs ministry officials were desperate in damage management, but it was an impossible task to tackle the western media.
But then, the situation suddenly changed after November 5 American presidential elections. Narendra Modi’s good friend Donald Trump won. Canadian government got the signal The officials diluted the allegations. Prime Minister Justine Trudeau is disliked by Trump from his first term. He could gauge that he had to slow down on the allegations against India in the new situation and he did that. Now if finally Trump’s favourite Kash Patel takes over as the FBI director, India can look forward to further dilution of the allegations by the Canadians against India and also some steps against the Sikh extremists in Canada in the coming year.
The 44 year old ‘Kash’ is of Gujarati parents. He is a devout Hindu and he was part of Trump’s agenda in his first term. All intelligence information emanating from the United States is vetted by the domestic agency FBI just as all intelligence operations in foreign countries are dealt by the CIA. If Kash takes over, as FBI director, he will have the right to analyse and monitor the intelligence information collected inside the USA. The new FBI director can exercise his right in respect of the allegations involving India also.
This possibility is a major area of relief for the PMO and the South Block at the moment. Apart, there is some good news about Bangladesh developments also. South Block has got clear signals about the trends of the South Asian policy of the second Trump administration. Taking that account, the Indian government has changed its approach to deal with Sheikh Hasina who is staying in exile in India since August 5 this year. Four months have passed since her reaching India.
Initially, Hasina was issuing statements from her residence in India. But soon after, the strong objection by the interim government of Bangladesh, Sheikh Hasina was asked by the Indian government not to issue any statement for some time. Now in the changed perspective, Hasina has been allowed to issue statement defying the request from the Dr. Yunus led Bangladesh Government. Hasina issued a very strong statement early this week to a conclave of Awami League supporters through digital media accusing Dr. Yunus of being the brain behind the developments leading to August 5,
There are indications that she will continue to be active once again and will make efforts to give leadership to the Awami league workers who are hiding in Bangladesh and also to the large base of supporters of Awami League abroad, especially in UK and USA.. This change in India’s decision could not have been possible without getting a signal from the South Asia advisers of the president elect Trump.
As regards Dr. Muhammad Yunus, he took the challenge from Sheikh Hasina seriously. He is already panicky at Trump taking over as U.S. President since Dr. Yunus is known as ‘Hillary man’. He called immediately a three day meeting of the different groups including political parties to focus on what he termed as ‘National Unity’ to meet the challenge. Already, he had meetings with the student groups and the political parties. He will be having a meeting with the leaders of the religious groups on December 4. The Hindu groups have also been invited.
Interim head Dr. Yunus is under tremendous pressure both from his advisory group members, especially BNP and the students groups. Contradictory Advices are coming indicating different directions. Some of the Hindu groups have become militant these days and that has encouraged the fundamentalist Muslim elements to get aggressive. In fact, the ground position is that the recent attacks against the Hindus are not for their religious faith but for the fact that they are Awami League supporters.
Indian foreign policy makers are expecting that even if the Yunus regime survives after Trump take over, the Bangladesh government will be more amenable to Indian position and the environment will be more congenial for the improvement of India- Bangladesh relations. There is a possibility of India-Bangladesh meeting in Dhaka at foreign secretary level on December 10. If the Indian foreign secretary visits Dhaka, he will be able to assess the latest political mood in Bangladesh but no major step is expected now as both India and Bangladesh are waiting for the beginning of the second term of Trump from January 20. (IPA)
Follow our WhatsApp channel
