Brig (retd) Anil Gupta
“Impossible is a word to be found only in the dictionary of fools” said the great military leader and French emperor Napoleon Bonaparte. But nearer home, the leadership of the ruling coalition is dead sure that the achievement of Mission 44+ announced by BJP is impossible. Some of them have gone to the extent of putting their political careers at stake. They are so certain that the hardliner Chief Minister in a public meeting at Doda announced, “The day BJP gets majority in J&K assembly elections, I will take retirement from active politics and go into hibernation. I do not want to see that day nor will that day come in the future.” Others have also joined the chorus and are mocking at the BJP for having dared to conceive the Mission. To all of them and others who support this theory of ‘Impossible’, I would only say “because a thing seems difficult to you, do not think it is impossible for anyone to accomplish.”
In the realm of electoral politics nothing is impossible. The coalition would not have thought in the wildest of its dreams that they would be completely wiped out in the 2014 parliamentary elections. Even the final verdict at the centre was totally unexpected. The Congress Party’s worst ever performance and some of its allies failing to win even a single seat and BJP’s sweep in Uttar Pradesh were not expected. But all this did happen. It happened because the supreme authority to decide is bestowed to the electorate in a democracy. If the electorate decides it can make the ‘impossible’ possible. In fact, the word IMPOSSIBLE itself says I’M’POSSIBLE.
One is at loss to understand the basis on which the coalition has decided with certainty to out rightly reject and declare Mission 44+ as impossible and not even improbable. Is the deduction based on some solid calculations or sheer arrogance? Have they decided to ignore the obvious indicators or do they think that with their sectarian and divisive politics they would still be able to turn the tide in their favour. Will that happen? The ground indicators are to the contrary. The electorate in J&K feels cheated and betrayed by the coalition Government. They are looking forward to teach them a lesson. Fed up with rhetoric, false promises and last minute bounties to woo them, they want an early end to their woes. Their dissatisfaction with the present government has reached a point of no return. But still the coalition leaders with blinkers on their eyes are refusing to see the obvious and accept the reality.
But what matters ultimately in a democracy is the number of seats a party can win to form the government. It all boils down to the number game. That’s why the magical figure of 44 and BJP’s Mission 44+. The moot question is how this magical figure would be achieved? There are many things that seem impossible only so long as someone attempts them. To this end, BJP needs to be complemented for having set a mission for itself which its opponents feel to be impossible. To launch a campaign, it’s the first and foremost requirement to enunciate a mission. Once the mission is clear, a plan is formulated for its accomplishment. The plan comprises of various strategies and options that are unleashed once the plan unfolds. I have no doubt that BJP would have also followed the same path and is waiting for an opportune moment to jump into the battlefield and unfold its plan.
BJP’s spectacular performance in the state in the Parliamentary election cannot be dismissed by attributing it to Modi Wave. If that be so, then what explains the loss by the coalition of all the three seats in the Valley? Undoubtedly, the Modi wave was a major factor but not the only factor. There is no denying the fact that there is a groundswell of anger against the ruling coalition. BJP has a support base in about 35-36 assembly segments. All it needs is to convert this support base into vote bank and win these seats. The wind of change in the valley is also blowing against the ruling coalition. The electorate in the Valley wants to get rid of the dynastic rule. They want to leave behind the era of uncertainty and hollow slogans. They want to be part of the main stream and march shoulder to shoulder on the path of growth and development with their brethren in the rest of the country. They want to reap the benefits of a growing economy, they are yearning for a better quality of life, they want employment and above all they want to live a life of dignity. They have realised that only a party with inclusive ideology and development based agenda can help them achieve their dream. They are looking up to BJP, the party that provides them a ray of hope. The biggest surprise in the ensuing election is going to be sprung by the matured and knowledgeable electorate of the Kashmir Valley. Their contribution in the accomplishment of Mission 44+ is going to surprise many political pundits. The electorate of Kargil and Ladakh has already shown their inclination for change and would definitely contribute to the accomplishment of Mission 44+.
One of the major contributory factors in victory is the opponents’ weaknesses. As the things stand the coalition has a plethora of weaknesses. First and foremost is the widening rift between the two parties. The coalition partners are at daggers drawn but continue to pose a semblance of unity for the lust of power. Neither of them wants to break the alliance before the elections are announced for the fear of losing power. The public is keenly watching the leaders of the two parties who miss no opportunity for blaming each other for their down fall. How can a Government function or deliver when its ministers display disagreement on every proposal and pull apart in different directions? Aren’t they playing with the people’s sentiments?
The other major factor is the anti-incumbency. While one of the coalition partners has been in power for nearly 12 years the other has led the government for nearly 6 years. But both of them have hardly anything to show as their major achievement while on the other hand a number of negatives are attributed to them. There have been announcements galore but hardly any attention was paid to their implementation. The people of Jammu and Ladakh that gave mandate to the Congress party are disillusioned with the party. They feel that the party has been reduced to a mere ‘B’ Team of the National Conference and has let them down very badly. It has failed miserably to voice their concerns and fulfil the promises made to the people of these areas in its manifesto. Their cadre is demoralised and disillusioned. The party also lacks credible leadership.
The people of the state also realise that no Government in the State can function effectively without the generous support of the Central Government. The relationship between the two has to be cordial and warm. The coalition has displayed open hostility with the Central Government. This has done no good to them. Putting behind the bitterness of the elections, the coalition Government in the state should have tried to reach out to the newly elected Government in the centre. But for the reasons best known to it, it has continued to embark on the path of confrontation. This would do them no good as the public also understands the need of cordial relationship with the Government at Delhi. The hostile and unfriendly approach of the coalition towards the central government may also go against them in the ensuing elections.
History is witness to the fact that every successful campaign is led by a brilliant leader supported by a team of unsung heroes, the backroom boys, with expertise in their domains who form the think tank of the leader. They advise the leader and assist him in addressing the unexpected by putting into place the contingency plans. Once again one must grant to the BJP that they would have also taken care of this vital aspect before they take plunge into the electoral battlefield. There are a few other positive factors like the dedicated grass root level cadre, inclusive ideology, clear vision, a well- planned strategy and the blessings of the Central Government that go in favour of the BJP and would contribute to the accomplishment of the mission.
The public is no doubt looking for a change and a change for the better. Their alienation with the present coalition government is enormous and is visible. It is now for the BJP to convert this alienation into a solid vote bank throughout the state. What is needed now is more people who specialise in the impossible.
But the bottom line is, the electorate cannot be taken for granted and in the realm of electoral politics nothing is impossible.
(The author is a political commentator, security and strategic analyst. The views expressed in this article are entirely personal views of the author)
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