T K Singh
As one of the most sensitive states of India is preparing for the Independence Day (ID) celebration, Jammu and Kashmir (J&K) is under multiple threats from both external and internal elements. While firing across the Indian border from Pakistan has been observed in the state lately, separatists leaders from Hurriyat Conference called for general strike on the day. At the same time, threat alerts have been issued by the intelligence agencies about possible militant attack during the celebration. Consequently, security has been beefed up across the state with the help of local police, central armed police personnel and the Army.
External Turmoil: Perhaps to divert attentions from the ID celeberation, over the past few days Pakistani troops have been violating ceasefire in various border locations of Jammu. On 10 and 11 August 2014 Pakistani Rangers opened unprovoked fire at the border out post (BoP) of Nikowal, Bhudwar, Pittal, Pindi Charkan, Kake-de-Kothe, Chinaz, Nowa Pind and Jogna Chak, and also attacked with dozens of mortar shells in Kodwal, Pindi and Sahugh villages.
Such intentional firing is likely to be continued as they perhaps wanted to disrupt the upcoming ceremony. In fact, earlier in 2013 on the day of Indian independence, Pakistani troops opened fire in several locations of Mendhar and Balakote sectors along the Line of Control (LoC) injuring three soldiers. Records have also suggested that such intentionally or unintentionally carried out incidents have been occurred over the past few months. In July (2014) alone, there were eight ceasefire violations against five in June along the LoC and border areas in Jammu. Likewise, in the previous months of both April and May there were such 19 incidents along the LoC. Reacting on the repeated ceasefire violation by the Pakistani troops, Lt. Gen. Konsam Himalay Singh, General Officer in Command (GOC), 16 Corps (Nagrota, Jammu) had recently stated that the Indian Army is ready to afford a “befitting reply” to the Pakistani troops who attempt to infiltrate or violate ceasefire from across the border.
Internal Disorder: Meanwhile, as the intensity of cross firing increases in border areas, senior members including Syed Ali Gilani, Shabbir Ahmad Shah and Mirwaiz Umar Farooq from the Hurriyat Conference called for complete strike in the region especially in Srinagar where the main event is going to be solemnised. On 10 August 2014 Geelani stated that by observing a complete shutdown the Indian rulers would be reminded their false promises and send a message across the world that Kashmiris in any ways do not endorse or accept the forceful occupation of J&K by India. Similarly, Shah claimed that the day is the independence day of India, not for Kashmiris and the nation should fell embarrass to host its flag in Kashmir with the assistance of more than “seven lakh troops”.
Over the past several years, it has been a normal practice that the ID has been regularly boycotted by the Hurriyat members and observed it as black day by sections of the society. Nevertheless, may be because of augmented tough security apparatus no significant untoward activities have been carried out in main ceremonial areas by the separatists. However, disruption on the day was symbolically observed elsewhere in 1999 only when militants have carried out multiple attacks against security forces in different places including Anantnag and Udhampur, killing four police personal and injuring one. Again in 2005, an hour before the then Chief Minister Mufti Mohamed Syed attended the ID event, a bomb was exploded near the Bakshi Stadium (Srinagar) however no casualties were reported.
Revamping Security: As intelligence agencies have issued threat warnings about a possible militant strike on the day, a three-tier security blanket has been set up around the Bakshi Stadium, the main venue for the ID celebration in Kashmir. Consequently, on 09 August 2014 the Director General of Police (DGP) of the state K. Rajendra Kumar chaired a high-level security meeting with senior officials from Border Security Force (BSF), Central Reserve Police Force (CRPF), state police, intelligence agencies and other civil officers in Jammu. However, there are also impressions in this year that the deployment of security forces for the event is not as visible as it was in earlier celebrations. Nevertheless, it was revealed that the extra manpower (deployment) has been substituted by modern gadgetries including Closed Circuit Television (CCTV) cameras and other security devices with reliable support from human intelligence.
While beefing up security arrangement for such national event is critical, routine threat alerts with no specific (actionable) inputs are commonly issuing. And they subsequently lead to create unwanted panic to the community and caused insignificant elaborative duty to security personnel. Similar threat warning on possible terror strike was issued for 2013 ID. However there was no indication of anything based on the disseminated alert. In fact, there was a serious debate amongst the security establishment in 2012 based on an unsubstantiated input which indicates that cadres from Laskhar-e-Toiba (LeT) along with Yemeni were planning to hijack Indian aeroplanes before 15 August. Later the input was found to be uncorroborated and objected by many as security exercises were needlessly carried out increasing hurdles on security personnel besides causing harassment to the public.
Even though there were threat alerts, as the trend follows from the past and considering the robust security arrangement, it is unlikely to happen any untoward incidents perpetrated by either separatist (mass demonstration) or militants (terror attacks) at the prime vicinity (Bakshi Stadium or other main areas). However, as it was observed in the past (2013), firing from the Pakistani troops on the Indian border is likely on this special day. At the same time, considering the unprovoked firing as a divergent tactics of Pakistani troops to create space for militants operating in elsewhere, attacks can take place in vulnerable areas of J&K. But rest assured, both the nations along with their troops and citizens, without any violence may pay respect to national ceremonies of both India and Pakistan to bring the ever lasting peace that is due for long.
(The author is an Assistant Professor at the School of National Security Studies in the Central University of Jammu.)
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