Decline of ISIS

Lt Col Krishan Chand (retd)
A lot has been written about the ISIS and its declaring itself a caliphate on 29 Jun this year, calling upon all Muslims in the world to pledge their allegiance to it and join in the fight to establish and spread the caliphate to lands ruled by Islam in the past. Much has happened before and since 29 Jun 2014 to alarm and awaken the world to the dangers inherent in the budding caliphate, leading to the UNSC declaring ISIS as a terrorist organization and the US followed by many others committing to fighting it. ISIS has had a dramatic success in spreading itself at lightning speed in Northern Syria (with its headquarters at Raqqa ) and North West Iraq, in Sunni majority areas,  where it overwhelmed the state forces with astonishing speed and ease. Its early successes in battles jolted the powers in the area and the world to take urgent notice of the danger inherent in its rise. Its fighting prowess, ferocity, the idea of caliphate and the fall of large quantity of sophisticated weapons, ammunition, equipment, resources from the conquered areas in its hands, its organisational and fighting skills,  Lure of strict Sharia based rule in the face of sectarian ineffectual govts in both Syria and Iraq, lent urgency to checking its advance, leading to many nations led by US coming together to defeat it.
Let us consider what ISIS has going in its favour in the region and the world.1. It has mass support among the fundamentalist Sunni sect which comprises over 70% of approximated 1.6 bn Muslim populations. From among these however only the poor (including orphans from madarsas), uneducated tribals motivated by the Ulema ( funded by the rich and crime proceeds) constitute the foot soldiers. There is sprinkling of educated and skilled from upper classes including new converts from western countries in positions of command and control, but, the foot soldiers and suicide bombers are from among the poor.2. Dynastic/ military regimes propped by western powers, colonially drawn borders where conflicting sect, religious and tribal loyalties conflict in hot spots like Palestine , Iraq and Syria also help ISIS and other terror outfits like Al Qaeda and Al-Nusra. 3. Ferocity, organisational ability, fighting prowess, skill in urban guerrilla warfare, huge quantities of warlike materials captured/ seized from Govt forces, loyalty of population in area under control and huge income from sale of oil, taxation, donations, extortions and other crimes. 4. Turkish opposition to Kurds and Syrian Govt of Bahar A- Assad. 5. Exclusion of Iran and Syria from the fight against them due pressures from Saudi Arabia and other Middle East Sunni countries.
Let us now consider what is ranged against the ISIS at present. 1. No country in the world including Afghanistan wants fundamentalists with promise of Sharia rule to come to power. Some of them like Saudi Arabia want to use terror outfits to contain Iran and spread their version of Islam, but, even they too don’t tolerate them in their midst/ hand over power to them. 2. Well -off, moderate and  educated Muslims dread the fundamentalists coming to power and all co-operation from them is  through extortion and fear. 3. The resources at the command of powers ranged against the ISIS are very high in arms, money, reach, communications, intelligence etc. 4. The initial advantage of ISIS in speed, local support and fighting power is getting blunted with even lightly armed (but supported from air) Kurd Peshmerga fighters and Iraqi Militia and army becoming increasingly able to provide the much needed boots on ground for the end game. 5. Installation of inclusive govt of Mr Haider Al- Abadi as PM of Iraq which is likely to muster loyalty of both Sunni and Kurd population in place of Sectarian Govt of Nur Al- Maliki. 6. Growing fatigue from stress among the population in the area under ISIS control due deprivation and harsh rule. 6. Shrinking stocks of arms, ammunition, resources etc due attrition caused by ever growing superiority of coalition forces.
From the few factors listed above it should be clear that the ISIS is in decline mode and it is only a matter of time before they’ll cease to be a force in both Iraq and Syria like the once feared Al- Qaeda was in Af-Pak region. This is becoming clearer with lightly armed Kurd Peshmerga holding and pushing it back in Kobane, Mosul dam, border Xing of Rabia and Sinjar mountains among few others. Iraqi forces also with support, training and guidance of US instructors have begun recapturing areas from ISIS and keeping it from getting within range of Baghdad. In Lebanon also a joint operation by Al Nusra and ISIS has been beaten back by Hezbollah and Lebanese army with heavy casualties to ISIS in dead and for the first time mass surrender of 162 ISIS fighters. With the fighting joined now by opposing ground forces in the entire region, the air supremacy enjoyed by coalition forces is going to be more and more lethal and effective against ISIS due better identification and location of targets and holding of seized territories. Once the news of reverses suffered by ISIS spreads in the area, more and more people from the areas under its control are likely to defect and help in better targeting of its facilities. Lastly the attrition effect of fewer resources, restricted mobility and waning morale are sure to precipitate its collapse much sooner than the long haul predictions of US President Mr Obama. The unity and solidarity shown openly by most western countries, Islamic and Muslim majority countries, Russia,  Australia etc and  little subdued by Pakistan,  Afgahnistan, India,  Bangladesh among many others is bound to be a discouraging factor in the rise of any such organisation in future. The end of terror epoch in world affairs is in sight and all right thinking, peace loving development minded persons and nations need to feel encouraged and enthused by the prospect. Strategy of sustained attrition and preparing the local forces to fight ISIS has begun pay offs earlier than expected.

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