Sameer Rekhi
Addressing a two day party convention at Minar-e-Pakistan grounds in Lahore on December 05, 2014, the UN-designated terrorist, Jamat-ud- Dawah (JuD) chief Hafiz Saeed criticised India for conducting what he termed were sham elections in Kashmir and said “the battle of Indian subcontinent is inevitable”. “The BJP wanted to win in Kashmir by foul means to give an impression to the world that Kashmir was not a disputed territory”, said Saeed, who also questioned why Prime Minister Narendra Modi was “visiting Kashmir again and again”.
Saeed’s rally was held in a national monument in Pakistan and for which a large number of police persons were deployed, which is why the Government of India has termed Pakistan Government’s support to Saeed and his internationally proscribed terrorist organisation, JuD, as nothing short of “mainstreaming of terrorism”.
This along with some other recent developments suggest that the neighbouring country and its de-facto ruler, the army have let their nervousness and desperation take over whatever little good sense they had earlier. Visibly unnerved by the phenomenal turnout of the voters in the assembly elections of Jammu and Kashmir (J&K) despite the boycott calls of their stooges in the Kashmir valley, the Pakistan establishment has once again started looking up to the terrorist outfits especially the Lashkar-e-Toiba (LeT) to fight its proxy war in J&K.
The unease and desperation of the Pakistan army which had started surging after Prime Minister Nawaz Sharief’s visit for the oath taking ceremony of the new Indian Government has only been growing ever since. Having failed to attract the attention of the international players and the UN towards its renewed, reinvigorated K-rhetoric, the Pakistan army resorted to heavy shelling on the International Border and the Line of Control in the months of September and October, 2014 only to be beaten back by the unprecedented hard, “no holds barred” response of the Indian Army.
According to Media inputs, after the hard hitting response of the Indian army on borders, Hafiz Saeed, the blue eyed boy of spy agency ISI, was asked to assess if his jehadi cadre was in a position to undertake some ‘never before’ suicide missions against the Indian army in particular. Saeed and the LeT cadre avowed to avenge Pakistan’s loss of face. In this backdrop, the symbolism of the Arnia attack is too obvious to be missed. This is the theatre which saw maximum border bombardment. The Uri attack on Dec 05 also indicates not only shifting tactics but a renewed fervour and operational skill.
The new strategy it seems is to have two sub groups in a battle hardened suicide mission squad of 4-8 terrorists designated for each identified targeted locations. One for forcing their way inside and causing large-scale destruction and the other for occupying pre-reconnaissanced bunkers and keeping off the reinforcements with war-like firepower.
Even as these fidayeen operations were being given the final touch in the training camps across the LOC/IB, assembly elections in Jammu and Kashmir were announced in the last week of October 2014. The infiltrations of these groups was in all probability synchronised with the polling dates as this might have been thought of as operationally the most suitable time.
A critical analysis and evaluation of the situation as it obtains today leads to the following three conclusions:-
* The recent attacks and their lethality indicate that a new operation has been launched by the Pakistan Army to avenge its defeat on the borders through proxy means as there is hardly any other recourse left.
* The Pakistan establishment is excessively un-nerved by the huge participation of masses in the elections. The rebuff to the separatist stooges over their boycott calls is even more hurting for Pakistan. The attacks are meant to scare the people away from the polling booths as a last ditch attempt to salvage whatever is left of Pakistan’s lost cause of Kashmir.
* Having failed on all fronts, this is a serious attempt to provoke India into some kind of re-tariatory action so that the tried ‘nuclear blackmail’ can be resorted to and international attention is drawn towards Jammu and Kashmir.
That the Pakistan Army has once again put in all its eggs in the proxy war basket is amply borne out by the recent spurt in terrorists attacks. While expressing his opinion on a talk show of a news channel on December 5, 2014, Lieutenant General Atta Hasnain, the former Corps Commander of Kashmir stated that the recent attacks were a clear message from the Pakistan Army that they still retain the capability to calibrate the proxy war and this being election time was tactically and operationally the best occasion for the terrorists to be sent in.
(The author writes on security and intelligence analysis)
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