Men, Matters & Memories
M L Kotru
Whatever else it may or may not have achieved one thing that the just ended poll process in Jammu and Kashmir has brought into the open is the harsh reality that divides the Muslim majority valley and the predominantly Hindu Jammu, with the remaining constituents, the Chenab valley and the once majority Buddhist Ladakh offering a stand-out mixed bag.
It’s not that the divide was invented during the run up to the elections; it had been there before, only it has been laid bare during the campaign. The Bharatiya Janata Party in its present fiercely aggressive mode ensured that the long-hidden demons are brought into play. It tried its best to confuse the valley by taking resort to its familiar double speak on issues such as article 370. In Jammu it was totally opposed to retention of the Article. In the valley, on the campaign trail, the Article, granting the State some special privileges, was par, and in Jammu its abrogation was at the very heart of the party campaign. The question was asked in Jammu by party Chief Amit Shah whether the people of that region (Hindus) would want the Abdullahs and Muftis to rule them with that saucy bit about the Abdullah ancestors’ Hindu lineage thrown in to good effect.
In any case, no matter what the composition of the new government is, the division of the State of Jammu and Kashmir along dangerous communal lines did truly begin this fell campaign. A miracle will be needed, nothing short of that, to stop this process, along with a political acumen that transcends electoral calculations in every player.
The BJP dangerously chose to further the division between Jammu and the valley. in failing to recognize the State-level dynamics, it did not appreciate the possibility that Mufti Mohammad Sayeed’s PDP might benefit both from the popular disaffection with the ousted NC Government and from the BJP’s shrill pro-Jammu rhetoric .The BJP had miscalculated that the Congress would lose its vote share which would help it sweep Jammu.
The BJP’s nevertheless was a remarkable performance even as it was well below its dream of +44 with which it had hoped to demolish the valley’s bloated view of its place in the State. Equally remarkable was the surprise Omar Abdullah and his National Conference pulled up, thanks mainly to the BJP’s abrasive rhetoric in Jammu and even Srinagar. The BJP’s anti valley Muslim stance -it was seen as that- persuaded the otherwise sulking NC supporters to turn out in support of their discredited leadership, enabling it to return a surprising 15 (plus two independents supported by it) MLAs. These were not merely tactical miscalculations by the BJP. They were born of a confidence that there are no competitors. In spite of the party surging ahead and seat tallies showing major upsets, the vote share of most parties appears to have remained almost stable. The BJP for the record polled about 23 percent of the vote, almost the same as the PDP. The BJP’s vote share might have improved from the Assembly polls of 2008-9 but it has actually dropped seen against the Lok Sabha numbers of eight months ago.
Non-BJP contestants have indeed picked up quite a few segments from the/parliamentary constituencies won by the BJP in the Lok Sabha polls earlier this year – pointing to a clear erosion of the vote. Poll polemics aside, given the woefully fractured mandate the electors have rendered, it had become clear three days after the results were known that ministry-making isn’t going to be easy. Take the four principal parties in the fray, the Congress only notionally so.
The People’s Democratic Party, the BJP and the National Conference, given their respective commitments, hardly make for an inspiring combination whichever way you look at it. Ideally PDP as the largest single party should have sailed into office but given the nature of the mandate that would have left Jammu almost unrepresented. Together, with the BJP, the two would have ensured stability and proper regional representation, assuming that one or the other elected representatives from Ladakh, was inducted too.
Truth to tell, the election results have brought into the open the sharp divergence of opinion in Jammu and Kashmir regions. The two do not see eye to eye on most issues; they think differently, they identify differently, they vote differently.
The Government that takes on from here, formed ideally by the PDP, the largest single party in the new Assembly and the BJP together would seem to be an attractive one even as one is aware of their sharply defined positions on certain serious issues. The two may ideologically be miles apart but only this combination would ensure stability and a fair measure of good governance provided they work with a sincerity of purpose.
The PDP’s good showing in the valley can be attributed to Mufti Sayeed’s record as the Chief Minister. In the valley the PDP is considered as the most suitable party for the development of the State. The BJP’s presence in the government would, of course, be welcomed by Jammu. That the Bharatiya Janata Party is ready and eager to come to grips with power in the State became evident when it deputed its senior leader Arun Jaitley to initiate talks with parties like the PDP. Omar Abdullah, the outgoing Chief Minister, rushed back to Srinagar from Delhi to be on hand to follow up the overtures he had made to the party in the national capital.
Omar had indeed established a link with the BJP bosses in Delhi, before Jaitley flew into Jammu. Their inner contradictions notwithstanding, both the People’s Democratic Party and the National Conference were inclined to give a link up with abhorred BJP a try.
No need to go into what the negotiators on either side would have said but the truth is many dissenting voices from within the two major valley parties were distinctly audible. This, regardless of the fact that both parties have had reasonably decent working relationships in the past. Mufti Sayeed had got on famously with the Vajpayee Sarkar and Omar Abdullah even served in the Vajpayee government. Yet for reasons not totally unknown a tie-up now, including sharing office in the State, seemed to upset sections within the PDP and NC.
As I signs off for the week this Friday afternoon, the talks to share the fishes and loaves of office were about to come to a final denouement. Whatever the colour of the ruling partnership the road ahead is bound to be tough. No more peering into the crystal ball for me. For the sake of Jammu and Kashmir let us pray for a stable, working partnership even as the divide between Kashmir and Jammu continues to stare us in the eye.
Follow our WhatsApp channel