Shiban Khaibri
Indian voter is emerging increasingly matured politically day in and day out and is proving many political equations and alliances thrust on it for purposes of running Governments as irrelevant and overspent. Yes, the voters tut- tut opportunistic alliances and of late, prefer decisive and clear cut mandates. Mere political rhetoric sans promises of performance and accusations and counter accusations indulged in by many political leaders do not appear to motivate voters any longer in a decisive way. The election results of Assam, Kerala, Tamil Nadu and West Bengal have proved the point.
The BJP has made inroads into Assam, the nucleus of the North East with a sweeping verdict and dislodged the Congress government there. Tarun Gagoi was heading the Congress Government for the last 15 years and the massive mandate given to the BJP remains the central focal point of political analysis in as much as the lotus blooming in Assam for the first time could herald, and the same is expected, into a new political dispensation in the near future in other adjoining states in the region. The ruling Party has many “firsts” to cheer at from the poll results apart from its “first” in Assam, it has for the first time opened its account in Kerala and also done the same for the first time in West Bengal. It is worth noting that in a state like Kerala, its vote percentage has shown a promising number of 15%. In West Bengal, Mamta Banerjee has come up with more flying colours than in her previous Assembly elections and the left – Congress combine lost miserably to impress the voters there. In Tamil Nadu, J. Jayalalithaa has rendered most of the psephologists and political pundits irrelevant in predicting her losing to the DMK – congress coalition tailored by the Congress leader Ghulam Nabi Azad and she reversed a trend in Tamil Nadu prevalent there since 1984 that of a Government in office not being re-elected for the second time in succession. She has, thus, conveniently defeated the anti incumbency factor also. In Kerala, the ruling Congress led UDF lost to the left led LDF while BJP led NDA has for the first time consolidated its position. The third front there consisting of the Janta Dal (U), Kerala Congress and the RSP have drawn a blank. All the results are now out and known but the same cannot be taken lightly in the context of many political analysts calling them as a trailer and trend setter for the general elections of 2019 in the country. These results have put a big question mark on the much hyped “anti BJP front” sponsored by Nitish Kumar and towards which he has started to work on, right from now. It has given yet another verdict against the grand old Party, the Congress as in all the four states, it has miserably lost while in UT, Puducherry, it has come up with a faint hope in 30 member Assembly.
It may be observed that the policy of the BJP under Narindra Modi had been a concerted focus on Assam and other adjoining states as these were conveniently ignored in matters of economic development or resolving their Geo- political problems. The people over there felt that at least someone from Delhi after nearly seven decades had shown sincere intentions to start the process of the reversal of their perpetual neglect. Massive electrification of Indian villages, the foremost point of the infrastructural development of such villages and road connectivity shall change the landscape of neglected states in the country and Assam could be in the forefront now. It goes without saying that now the BJP led alliance under Surbnanda Sonowal as Chief Minister in Assam shall have to perform and work hard as with poll results, scripting the history of Assam means making it a model state of fast development as also show some ground work on identification and deportation of Bangladeshi immigrants which is the bane of the problems of Assam disturbing its demographic, political and cultural spheres. Massive and large scale violence and sufferings of the people have been witnessed for years together in many areas under Congress rule and the dictum of “defer, avoid, feign innocence” attitude has been adding to the alienation of the people from both the state and central governments. Economy has been not picking up despite abundant natural resources, large scale floods are intermittently adding to the woes of the people, some unlawful outfits are sporadically creating violence. Therefore, there is definitely a hard work ahead for the new government and it must come up to the expectations of the people.
In West Bengal, Mamta Bannerjee has swept the polls and she calls it a “mammoth victory” which “we fought and won on our own”. She complained of having been scared many a time (indirectly referring to Saradha chit fund scam and controversial issue of paintings) and “many ask me as to why I wear no smiles and I say peoples’ smiles are my smiles”. Maa, Maati , Manush , however, have not gained much apparently under her rule but on economic, industrial and agricultural front breakthrough success cannot be claimed by the TMC rule. Besides, her brand of secularism, and the vote help from Bangladeshi immigrants too have played a significant part. The BJP has gained a foothold in Bengal for the first time with 11.5% vote share. However, the Left shall rue for its folly of having entered into an alliance with the Congress as it got shrunk miserably while its votes were pocketed by the Congress. Their critics hold the view that “it was not an alliance but a nexus”. Likewise the DMK shall repent for quite some time for having entered into an alliance with the Congress and the spongy family feud for political succession paraded brazenly on streets did not auger well for the Party. The Party, thus, did series of political hari-kari by making wrong choices. Like this, it appears that the Congress Party seems to be looking like a liability rather than a coalition partner and as of now, none of the Political Parties could be interested to do political business with it. It is interesting to note that the Congress could be content with 17 seats win in the union territory of Puducherry. The Party is in denial mode despite being rejected by the people in all the four states results of which were recently announced and while it accepts defeat, it at the same time, defends Rahul Gandhi. Ajay Makan attributed the Congress win of three municipal seats in Delhi to “all the efforts of Rahul Gandhi as he sat on Dharna along with the striking municipal safai Karamcharis”. This is the evaluation of political performance of the Vice President of a National Party like the Congress.
It is worth noting that the TMC may turn out to be the third biggest Party in the Rajya Sabha and it is made known by Mamta Banerjee that her party would support the GST bill which the Congress has been holding back under one pretext or the other. J. Jayalalithaa too may have more say in the Upper House making things easier for the BJP led NDA Government in doing legislative business without unnecessary hurdles. Otherwise also, her Party seemed not objecting to every issue in both the houses of the Parliament like the Congress was seen in almost all the sessions of the Parliament since Modi Government took over.
It is interesting to see that the Congress Party has lost as many as 158 Assembly seats over the period and as per an estimate it is now “ruling” over just 6% of the area in the country as against 64% by the ruling BJP and BJP led NDA. In Assam and Tamil Nadu, the urge for “Son -rise” has backfired and people have rejected promotion of “very nears and dears”. Family rule and political hierarchy or the”Son- rise” openly or in disguised form shall continue to become the greatest hurdle in achieving political “Sunrise”. The “grand old Party” has increasingly become dynastic in character over the years and it is curious that the strength of the Party coincides with the “strength” of the family or the dynasty. Congress would be well advised to have a capable leader at the national level acceptable to the people. It must be very aggressive and appear so from now onwards against acts of corruption, kick backs and the like. It must revise its policy and concept of (selective) secularism and its “adage” of keeping the largest minority on tenterhooks on elusive threat to “secularism and composite culture” from the BJP, RSS and the like. It must gracefully discharge its duties as an opposition Party in both the houses of the Parliament and avoid disruptions and trooping into the well at the drop of a hat. People, the voters, are watching with eagle eyed surveillance.
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