Anil Anand
The identification of Gujarat for the past over decade and a half has been with the then chief minister Narendra Modi’s model of politics and governance. The acid test for Modi-Gujarat synonymy began as soon as he led BJP to a spectacular victory and became Prime Minister.
His larger than life image had made it easier for Mr Modi to transfer power to his close confidant Anandi Behn Patel without an iota of protest or murmur. The sole reason was the focus of entire BJP clan in Gujarat at that point in time on Modi’s sojourn to Delhi and his no-nonsense tolerating image. Surely, no one could have afforded to antagonise him.
As is now very well known Anandi Behn was no great shakes as a politician cum chief minister but had no problems despite reports of corruption involving her family members trickling down. Modi-Amit Shah duo preferred to continue with her till the rich and dominant Patel or Patidar community to which she also belongs hit the roads demanding reservation.
Gujarat might not be electorally as important for Modi and BJP as UP is. But certainly has significance with the insignia of “Modi model of Governance or Gujarat Model” attached to it. And there is an added significance when Assembly elections are round the corner.
Patidar agitation followed by Dalit uprising in the aftermath of cow vigilantism has threatened to take the sheen out of Modi or Gujarat model. So the worry to quick-fix things and redo the electoral calculations to ensure BJP is voted back to power.
The selection of Vijay Rupani, who belongs to a miniscule but influential Jain community, as chief minister did not spell a surprise but came as a thunderbolt more for the BJP’s apparatus within its Gujarat unit than anyone else. No doubt Rupani is non-controversial and had cordial relations not only with Modi as chief minister but also his predecessor Keshubhai Patel and all party factions. But that certainly does not make him politically important to ensure BJP’s victory.
It is seldom that someone’s weakness becomes his or her strong point. The best case in study on this is Rupani as his weakness mostly on account of representing no powerful vote bank or dominant community has catapulted him to the chair of chief minister. He is an experienced administrator and can deliver as head of the government. That becomes irrelevant firstly when elections are round the corner and secondly when leaders as powerful as Modi and Shah would be breathing on his neck.
Rupani’s significance lies in being a low profile politician with no base of any consequence. This image aptly fits-in in the scheme of things of Modi-Shah duo. Even the BJP insiders and Gujarat watchers strongly feel that back-seat driving would be much more easier for the two with Rupani at the helm. Not that Anandi Behn was throwing her weight around but unfolding circumstances and electoral compulsions had necessitated the change.
Contrary to expectations both Modi and Shah very boldly decided to overlook the powerful Patidar community which is traditional supporter of the BJP and has never deserted the party. The basic premise behind looking beyond a Patel chief ministerial candidate has been that Patidars have nowhere else to go and ultimately vote for the BJP. Secondly, Modi-Shah combine, known for their arrogance and aggressive style of politics, ostensibly did not wish to be seen as succumbing to Patidars pressure that could ultimately be seen as erosion of Modi’s authority in his home state and repercussions elsewhere also. Rupani’s selection and elevation has amply proved, or at least Modi-Shah duo has given strong impression, that authority rests with them. The message is loud and clear to the Patidars to remain within their limits and not stretch it too much. There is simmering discontent within Gujarat BJP with a sulking Anandi Behn not taking the elevation of Rupani very kindly and that the claim of Patel community being ignored. There is a remote possibility of the simmer bursting into a flame but it can cause some cracks.
Much more important would be the reaction of Patidars or Patels notwithstanding the fact that Nitin Patel, whom even Anandi Behn had backed for CM’s post, has been made the deputy chief minister. The question arises that whether Nitin would be able to pacify his community or whether Patidars would look for a new destination other than BJP after decades of association with the saffron party.
There is an element of taking far-granted in BJP high command (read Modi and Shah) banking on the premise that Patidars would never desert the party they had served so loyally. This is so because the community is under a transition phase so far its leadership is concerned. The new kid on the block Hardik Patel had successfully led the agitation demanding 10 per cent reservation and in turn was jailed and slapped with sedition charge which had deeply incensed the community.
These factors would be high in the minds of the Patidars when their future course vis-a-vis assembly elections is decided. Hardik currently is on a six month exile from Gujarat and is camping in neighbouring Rajasthan viewing developments from a distance.
The electoral road would certainly be more bumpy this time than Modi’s rollercoaster ride during the last three Assembly elections. Will the Rupani card ultimately deliver or will Patidars finally bid good bye to BJP? The electoral politics of Gujarat would hinge on these questions apart from how Congress recoups or how strongly Aam Aadmi Party makes its debut in the coastal state.
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