Col J P Singh, Retd
It was 50 years ago that India and China fought a war resulting in politico military humiliation for India. The disastrous 1962 conflict is still fresh in the Indian mind and deeply embedded in its Army’s psyche. India is much to be blamed for it since Chinese intentions were too obvious to be ignored. The disaster was largely a result of gross miscalculations of Chinese capabilities and own diplomatic and military naivete’s and follies. Pt Nehru had progressively fallen in love with revolutionary China (and Mountbattens) and broadcast the slogan of ‘Hindi-Chini Bhai Bhai’ very loudly. After signing Panchsheel Treaty with China in 1954, Pt Nehru thought it was an end of all conflicts world over. India had to pay dearly for the love affairs and idealist policies of her first Prime Minister who thought, by announcing friendship with China, he will become a modern Ashoka. Hopefully we are now wiser and more realistic than we were five decades ago. China presents great security threat today besides greater economic opportunities to India and the Indian subcontinent. Critical analysis of the existing geo-strategic scenario would reveal that in the coming times, may not be in the too distant future, the threats will overtake the opportunities. Breakdown in diplomacy, misjudgments or over reaction by one of the two could end up in a conflict of serious repercussions. Yet another Sino-India military conflict, whenever it might happen, will be an unnecessary evil and hence better be avoided.
The Chinese are extreme realists and understand the logic of power. It is unlikely that China will consider it wise or beneficial if it were to launch another military adventure after its once glorious victory. Hence we need not be unnecessarily alarmists or demonise China on the grounds of potential combustible irritants on this occasion; yet not to be dismissive of existing tensions between the two on the one hand and evolving trends on the other. Chinese may celebrate the Golden Jubilee of the event, (no such indications as yet) which we too would have done, like we do for 1971 victory, had we won that war. While they celebrate the victory; our political and military leadership should be sitting down in Ops Rooms to plan to celebrate similar victory 50 years now on if we have to be reckoned as a world power. It would greatly help, if India is able to come face to face with certain truths. Pt Nehru could have avoided misjudgments about China’s intentions and miscalculations about own military preparedness; all his own doings. Within the coming 50 years, India will be well prepared, Gen V K Singh’s leaked letter of unpreparedness not withstanding. As we pursue our diplomacy imaginatively, sustain a high rate of growth, India will have to plan to be a strong military power of the subcontinent.
History has proved that whenever two great powers exist close to each other, chances of conflict increase greatly because their areas of growing influence overlap. This phenomenon, which earlier was more prevalent in Europe, is unfortunately becoming more pronounced in Asia where rising China and resurgent India have started claiming their interests in the same areas. South China Sea is a stark example of clash of interests where Vietnam sought Indian assistance in exploring oil from its coastline. China started accusing India of entering the areas which do not belong to Vietnam and warned both countries to desist from such activities. Thereafter China has increased its presence and interference in South China Sea. Besides this China has been strengthening her military and economic alliances with our neighbours with a view to distance them from India. India has, in the meantime, started cultivating alliances with China’s competitors Japan, Australia and United States. United States on the other hand is extending her Asian influence by increasing her presence in and around Indian subcontinent. Asia thus is bound to present a highly conflict prone scenario where India and China are likely to clash as much and as often as China and Japan do. The Indo-Pacific region will be the area of geo-economic and geo-strategic conflicts in the 21st century.
China has chosen Pakistan as a conduit in its game plan of bleeding India continuously besides cultivating good relations with other neighbours to encircle India. Knowing that Pakistan figures prominently in China’s strategy to increase its presence in the Indian Ocean, it is foolish to think that India can, in any way, curtail her activities there or in POK where more than an Army Division of China is already operating. If our neighbours have become a battleground for China to encircle us, it is because of Sun Tzu’s dictum “Contain an adversary through the leverage of making its neighbours hostile”. It is amply clear that coming decades will witness an intensifying strategic conflict between India and China. Besides military threat of greater magnitude there are unprecedented dangers from China supported insurgencies in the North East and Maoists in Red Corridor. Whether there will be a healthy competition or a combustible conflict between the two Asian powers, will largely depend upon the extent to which China will restrict its military presence around us and support to the insurgents. The fear is, by the time Chinese intentions become really clear, it may be too late for India to salvage its interests. This is the reason why India must plan to win a possible military conflict 50 years ahead, even though it does not want a conflict, but cannot afford to lose. Though India cannot stop China from developing infrastructure opposite the Indian borders, similarly none can stop us developing our border areas. One of the option lies in reducing Chinese threat by intensification of own military capabilities and strengthening ties with friendly nations in Indian subcontinent while entering into geo-strategic alliances with Japan and United States. At the micro level; latest govt decision to give out control of ‘Attack Helicopters’ to the Army from the Air Force on the grounds that it is an ‘inescapable operational necessity’ as infrastructure along the borders with China is far from satisfactory is welcome. Such assets with the army will enhance its mobility and cut down its timings for deployment.
Wars have been lost by the best equipped armies with all the tactical advantages in its favour because of poor civil and military leadership. In 1962, professional honesty and competence was lacking in the commanders at the higher level which was the main cause of debacle. Here I am reminded of Maharaja Hari Singh’s command to Brig Rajinder Singh, his Chief of Staff, to stop Pak invasion at Uri, “You will fight to the last man and the last round” due to which Kashmir valley was saved. This is how the wars are fought. Had Indian Army not abandoned strong defensive position of Se La on seeing being outflanked by Chinese, the consequences of the 1962 war would have been different. Se La was a very strong position which could have been held by the Infantry Bde for months together like Skardu garrison held on till August 1948 without any reinforcements or replenishments. Yet the vital defensive position was abandoned. It was a classic example of military incompetence at all levels which was not commensurate with the valour and reputation of Indian Army and the commanders on the spot, most of whom were the veterans of WW II and 1947 – 48. Main operational requirement to win a future war against China, in my view, is to issue a written command to all officers passing out of military academies “When attacked, fight to the last man and the last round to defend your Motherland” and the teaching / practice of withdrawal should be totally banned in the armed forces. In a future war with China, our young officers and men will certainly outsmart Chinese and prove their worth like they did against all odds in Kargil.
Fight to the last Man, last Round, should, in my opinion, be the lesson drawn from a debacle five decades ago.
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