Dr. Sudershan Kumar
One of the biggest Asian business stories is the “One Belt One Road” also known as “Belt and Road initiative” which is a development and economic initiative by Chinese’s President Xi Jinping to further rejuvenate and strengthen its economy. Announced in the year 2013, this has come at a time when the American President Donald Trump unveiled the policy of “America First”, whereas also when the domestic politics of Great Britain (once former empire builder) is beginning to become irrelevant in the present global market. So in the present scenario, this Chinese strategy attains more significance as it mainly focuses on co-operation and connectivity between Eurasian countries, People Republic of China through two prongs -first the land based silk route belt (SRB) and second through the ocean going Maritime Silk Road (MSR). This is a part of Chinese plan to become an international clout by expanding its influence on global market and exporting goods to third world countries, Europe and Middle East. The announcement of this ambiguous mega program One Belt One Road (OBOR) is a step to achieve China’s vision to become economic super giant. The aim of this major initiative is to stimulate the economy, remove major disparities between South, Eastern regions and north western regions of China and also tapping of new and under developed regions of the world to obtain global dominance through trade. Under this mega initiatives, Chinese will built infrastructure in participating countries , in terms of rail, road ports pipeline etc. But bewilderingly even after three years of announcement the operational plan has not been rolled out. But ironically whenever the President and Prime Minister of China visit any country, they invite that country to participate in this 6 trillion US$ budget project.
To further give impetus, the Chinese government recently organized a conference at Beijing on 14th and 15th May 2017. Though ,70 countries participated, the Government of India decided to boycott the conference and became a conspicuous absentee reiterating it’s commitment to safeguard its territorial integrity. Although this raised eyebrows whether the decision was apt or a misjudgement, various reasons can be cited to endorse India’s decision. First being the passing of one segment of corridor (CPEC) through Gilgit Baltistan, which is an Indian territory illegally occupied by Pakistan thus posing threat on its infringement on its integrity.
Secondly, the Chinese till date have not shared the operational details of mega project thus making the Indian experts/analysts skeptical about the transparency of their plan.
Thirdly and pertinently, the sharing of technical details, design parameters and afterward maintenance with Indian counterparts should be undertaken.
Also unlike small countries, Chinese should not expect major giant like India’s presumptive endorsement without blue print.
Also significantly this is a possible snub by India to the organizers of conference in the wake of Chinese concerted effort to encircle India with ports, naval basis and surveillance ports commonly known as “String of Pearls”thus creating a security dilemma.
Besides India’s past experience with China is bitter being laid upon the bed of thorns and trust deficit especially after 1962 war and thereafter China’s tactical indirect support to Pakistan to carry out subversive activities against India, especially in “Kashmir valley. Moreover Chinese have always tried to scuttle India’s entry in to NSG or objected to declaration of Maulana Masood Azhar as terrorist by United Nation General Assembly by using Veto power. But ironically if the above stated reasons are correct then why the strong stable and visionary Modi Government resorts to pick and choose policy towards China. If the Government of India is concerned about China indulging in hostile activities against India, then why Government of India is shy away in ending 71 billion bilateral trade with China as there is a huge deficit of 47 billion US$ in favour of China. However, the decision can only be left to policy experts and analysts keeping in view the long term repercussions. Needless to mention here is that the deals negotiated between People Republic China and other Secretive Governments of the countries for infrastructure development projects are shady. These often have the flavour of East India Company, which this subcontinent has experienced before. Hence there is discussion even in Pakistan whether China Pakistan Economic corridor (CPEC) should be seen as a Gift Horse(which will bring jobs,infrastructure, trade and money for Pakistan) or a Trojan Horse ,which in long run will trap Pakistan into huge debts with infringement on sovereignty and ultimately ending up with Chinese colonial rule similar to East India Company. The fear and jitters regarding benefits to Pakistani Government and the people out of CPEC are further deepened as the Government of Pakistan has not released the master plan agreed between the two countries. It is widely quoted that Pakistan Government has leased out thousand acres of land to Chinese entities in Balochistan against the wishes of local people. Chinese have been granted Visa free entry in that area, whereas there is no reciprocity for Pakistanis into Chinese areas. It is further stated that Pakistan will not levy any duty to Chinese goods which they will export/import through Gwadar Port, whereas Pakistani businessmen will have to pay for that, while transporting their goods to other countries. Besides Pakistan has bound itself to award contracts to Chinese companies as per price quoted by them and subsequent maintenance will be carried out by Chinese only. Everybody can only hope that these reports are not true and Pakistani leaders/authorities have not fallen into the trap and they must have negotiated the projects as per terms and conditions mutually beneficial to both the countries. If it is not so then Pakistan will pay very heavy price for that.
Therefore it is imperative for each participating country to meticulously scrutinize all aspects of this mega program in a threadbare manner before they become a part of it, otherwise these small countries will fall into the traps of Chinese long range policy of capturing the assets created by them for their use in other countries.
Besides Government of India should also keep its option open for discussion on this mega OBOR project initiated by Chinese leadership. . Because this has the potential of providing economic boost, integration with Eurasia, reduce the trust deficit and will also reduce the deficit in infrastructure required for the country. This will add thrust to the major initiative taken by Modi Government to encourage national as well as multi national companies to manufacture their products in India under Make in India category. The goods produced by these companies have to be exported to third world countries. Therefore the OBOR can play a key role for facilitation of transportation of goods But at the same time one should also look for alternative routes through Chabahar Port of Iran. For that India has already signed trilateral agreement between Iran and Afghanistan.
The author is of the opinion that in the present globalized world for sustenance of economies, the countries will have to depend on exports to Eurasia,Europe and Middle East countries. Therefore experts/analysts and strategy planners of the country must examine the viable options of exporting/importing goods to third world countries, Europe and Middle East countries in detail, and the country should work and prepare a well laid out road map of 50 years ahead with present Modi Government’s vision in mind. The situation should not be like a child who aspires to excel in studies but fails in all subjects.
(The author is former Director General DRDO Special Secretary MoD GoI)
feedbackexcelsior@gmail.com
Trending Now
E-Paper
Follow our WhatsApp channel