Gautam Sen
The latest international talks on unification of presently divided Cyprus in Greek and Turkish Cypriot zones, under the auspices of Antonio Gutteres, UN Secretary General (SG), has collapsed on 6th of this month in Switzerland. This development has been an anti-climax to a trend set in motion for quite some time, with incumbent Greek Cypriot President Nicos Anastacides and his Turkish Cypriot counterpart, Mustafa Akinci`s favorable postures and policies towards an eventual settlement, since their election in 2013 in their respective territories. The stumbling block seems to have been the Turkish Government`s refusal to provide explicit guarantee of non-intervention and withdrawal of its 30000 troops stationed in the north-eastern Cyprus since its invasion of the island in 1974. The talks had tacit support of the international community, the USA, Britain and the European Union (EU) of which Cyprus though de-facto partitioned, is a member.
There are reports in the Greek Cypriot media and from some quarters in Nicosia – the capital of Greek Cypriot-controlled Cyprus that, president Anastacides had adopted a hard-line stand, which led to the failure of the negotiations. Anastacides had demanded explicit guarantee from Turkish president Recep Tayep Erdogan`s government on non-intervention and complete Turkish troop withdrawal even before the entire scope of the agreement on unification was finalized. Turkey is reported to have agreed in principle on a two-state solution, a joint presidency of the two-state entity with a Greek-Turkish balance in the ratio of 2 : 1 and reduction in the level of Turkish and mainland Greek forces (Greece also has a limited force deployment in Cyprus after Turkey`s invasion in 1974) to 650 and 950 vis-à-vis their present respective strength of 30000 and 1000 under a trilateral guarantee of the governments of Britain, Greece and Turkey. The guarantee of Britain is important owing to its colonial legacy and the two military bases at Akrotiri and Dhekelia it retains in Cyprus.
However, Greek Cypriot Government sources have attributed the failure of the talks on unification on Turkey`s unwillingness to commit to eventual Turkish troop withdrawal, lack of agreement on exchange or compensation for property lost by 165000 Greek Cypriots and 45000 Turkish Cypriots who fled their homes consequent on Turkey`s invasion in 1974 and the division of the island, and the structure of rotating presidency of a confederated republic. The Greek Cypriots wanted a weightage of 6 : 1 in the presidency. While there may be some substance in the views put out by the Nicosia Government, it would have been prudent for president Anastacides to at least strive for a composite deal involving the basic elements of the structure of the confederated state, its presidency, and a time-table for de-induction of the huge contingent of Turkish forces in the island under preferably EU and Britain`s guarantees. Issues pertaining to settlement of property of displaced persons could have dealt with by a prospective unified Presidential Government or an UN-constituted transitional authority or mediator working in tandem with the new Government post-unification.
There is an impression among President Anastacides and his advisers that, notwithstanding the latest negotiations for unification ending in a impasse, they may be resumed again in the near future. This may not be a reasonable expectation because, the UN team including the UN`s Norwegian Special Adviser Espen Barth Aide (appointed by former UNSG Ban Ki-moon) are not likely to remain deployed on the Cyprus unification mission for long. Moreover, the political milieu within both the Greek and Turkish Cypriot regions of Cyprus as well as in Athens and Ankara, may not remain consistent for long.
Anastacides, as the presidential candidate of a political outfit `Conservation for Democratic Rally` came to power in February 2013 with one of the biggest margins since Cyprus`s independence in 1960. The Greek Cypriot president could have leveraged his substantial mandate, to build up an impetus towards a solution of the Cyprus problem, which does not seem to have happened. With the next Presidential election only a few months away, the near future may not be the most propitious for achieving this goal. Furthermore, with the political churning going on in Turkey and President Erdogan`s inexorable drive towards regimentation, constitutional changes on centralization of power and affording primacy to Islamic practices, loosening of Turkey`s hold on Cyprus, a country divided on religious-ethnic lines, seems unlikely.
Greek-Cypriot controlled Cyprus is presently in an advanced socio-economic state with a high income economy and very high human development indicators as compared to the Turkish-controlled portion, known as Turkish Republic of Cyprus. This has been an apparent reason for Cyprus with its government headquartered in Nicosia, being admitted to EU as a full-fledged member in May 2004. Though the EU had given a bailout package of Euro 10 billion to Nicosia after its admission, the EU`s expectations have not been belied. Cyprus`s economy has subsequently shown a degree of resilience. In this backdrop, there is a considerable yearning amongst its younger generation to have a unified country. The Anastacides government does not seem to have capitalized on these developments.
Nicosia is beginning drilling for natural gas in Cyprus`s exclusive economic zone, next week. Though this is unexceptionable in Cyprus`s national interest, the move may attract some opposition from the Erdogan government of Turkey because, there has not been substantive communication in the matter on preliminaries between Nicosia and Ankara. Had the negotiations on unification of Cyprus culminated in a broad agreement, the chances of Turkish cooperation in the matter could have been solicited by the Anastacides government. Therefore, with the negotiations on the Cyprus settlement stalled, some tension may arise between Nicosia and Ankara related to the gas exploration issue, with likely fallout on deliberations connected with the unification process.
Cyprus was under 300 years of Turkish Ottoman rule. The historic legacy of this phenomenon cannot be overlooked. Turkey will always try to assert its influence and indirect control on Cyprus`s affairs and its destiny, as a hangover of its pseudo-imperialistic urge. The Turkish Cypriotic community has been under Ankara`s influence in this backdrop. Therefore, Mustafa Akinci`s political rise in the Turkish -Cypriot part of the island ie. in the Turkish Republic of Cyprus as a social democratic president, was a welcome development. Akinci, as a long-serving mayor of south Nicosia had fostered cooperation between the communities and authorities of both sides of the Green Line (the dividing line between two parts of the capital of undivided Cyprus). President Nicos Anastacides could have dealt with the latest negotiations more adroitly with foresight, by working out a modus Vivendi with Mustafa Akinci and cultivating support from the EU which would have been forthcoming. The failure of the negotiations for unification has therefore been an avoidable lost opportunity.
(The author is a retired IDAS officer)
The views are the author’s own
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