Harsha Kakar
Afghanistan has remained an enigma for the US from the moment it entered the country. It defeated the Taliban, formed a government, but has never been able to establish control. Its casualties continue to mount, even though it has reduced its role from fighting to training. It cannot walk away leaving the country to its fate, as the Russians did, failing which Afghanistan can rapidly deteriorate and become a haven for global terror.
In fact, throughout its history, Afghanistan has never been controlled by any ruler. The terrain coupled with fierce tribal and feudal loyalties led to creation of states within a nation, each controlled by a feudal lord. The Government in Kabul only controlled cities and arteries leading to it, the countryside and rural areas were always small fiefdoms. The Russians had to withdraw in haste after struggling to control the country. The Taliban then took control, provided sanctuary to al Qaeda, enforced Sharia law and brutalized the nation, finally overthrown by the US led coalition.
For the US, Afghanistan has been its longest military engagement. There is still no way out and peace remains an illusion. With the ISIS gaining a foothold, the country faces a series of suicide and terror strikes from both, the ISIS and Taliban. The reality is clear. The US, irrespective of incrementing its force levels would never be able to defeat both and bring a sense of normalcy in the country. The Taliban is also part of the geopolitical game involving Russia, China, Iran and Pakistan. The Afghan government is ready for talks, but within its constitution, which is unacceptable to the Taliban.
The US has yet to announce its latest strategy for Afghanistan. Questions remain on whether it would decide to boost its army strength, continue with its present holding and change rules of engagement for them or enhance support of air power alone. In either case, as has been stated by mass of US think tanks and strategists, peace and victory in Afghanistan is intrinsically linked to the manner it handles Pakistan. It must also be noted that US troops are supplied by the Karachi port for hardware, hence it needs to tread carefully.
For any strategy to be successful, the Taliban and Haqqani network need to be isolated and moved away from their present support bases. Thus, enters Pakistan, where both these groups have safe havens and receive support from the deep state. Once pushed out from Pakistan or faced with a two-pronged strike, from Pakistan and Afghanistan, their capabilities can be reduced. For Pakistan, Afghanistan is its strategic depth, an area where India cannot be permitted to establish a presence. If India does gain a foothold, it would open a new front and enhance internal problems by supporting terrorism and freedom struggle in provinces. Hence, it banks onthe Taliban and Haqqani network to prevent that from happening.
The US declared Pak as a state providing ‘safe havens to terrorists’, cut down its share of coalition funds and has even threatened it with sanctions, sadly, nothing has worked. It has declared leaders of anti-India terror groups as global terrorists; however, they still roam freely, protected by the deep state. The fact that they openly address media and large public gatherings as also collect funds for terror activities is a slap on the US, but simultaneously, project the true image of Pakistan, a global exporter of terrorists. The Pak national policy, dominated by the army, of establishing terror factories to export products to India and Afghanistan, cannot be easilyshut.
Pakistan cannot turn against the snakes which it has created, for if it does so, they would turn against them. It is already battling the TTP, the Pakistan Taliban, which is a breakaway faction of the Afghan Taliban and has roots across the country, resulting in suicide strikes as deep as Lahore and Karachi, apart from targeting minority Shia’s and security personnel in remote locations. Pak has launched a series of military operations against them and the ISIS, each being proclaimed a success, till the next terror strike, post which another name is chosen and area of operations changed.
Thus, for the US, it is a catch 22 situation. They are also aware that additional ground troops may not be the answer. Pushing in a few battalions, one for each sector, may strengthen defence, however would be insufficient for an offensive. What may work is additional firepowerand special forces. Firepower implies enhancing air and drone strikes.
The first set of targets should be training bases of the Taliban and Haqqani network in Afghanistan and Pakistan. This could be supplemented by raids involving special forces, however, fear of their capture could be a limiting factor. Violation of the border between Pakistan and Afghanistan should not be a constraint. In fact, this is the message which should clearly flow. Either you push them across or we engage them in your territory, the choice is yours.
Pakistan is already firmly in China’s lap. No other means would work, as it has diplomatic, military and economic support from them. Thus, cross border strikes may result in Pak crying hoarse, but unless resorted to, Pak would never act. The west is aware that most Taliban leaders are based around Quetta and even referred to as the ‘Quetta Shura’, however restricted from acting to avoid collateral damage.
Earlier US Governments attempted a carrot and stick strategy of getting Pak to cooperate against Afghan terror groups. Nothing worked and coalition forces continued to suffer losses. The lesson ultimately drawn was that possibly only a stick, implying military force applied across the border, to seriously harm the image of the Pak deep state, would compel it to act and push terror leaders across for elimination in Afghanistan. The last successful drone strike in Pakistan had opposition leaders in the Pak Senate questioning their army chief on his ability to defend their territory. More strikes may force them to act.
Pak’s reason for supporting terror groups to counter growing Indian influence will soon begin to bounce back, as the US has limited options. It could have achieved its aims of keeping India away, had it adopted better cooperation and enhanced diplomatic engagement, however its misconstrued policies have come back to haunt it. The US has almost no option, but to engage across the border. Pak may cry hoarse, but will either have to cooperate or be defamed.
(The author is a retired Major General of the Indian Army)
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