Gautam Sen
Prime Minister Narendra Modi is in Myanmar on his second visit and first official visit, to that important neighbouring country. The visit has its significance in the present context of sensitive security milieu on India`s eastern periphery bordering Myanmar as well in the backdrop of India`s `Act East` policy. The China factor also looms large over the entire gamut of India-Myanmar relations in the politico-economic realm and in the strategic perspective. A high level of interaction has been in progress for some time, between New Delhi and Naypitaw. Myanmar`s president, Htin Kyaw and the government`s state councilor, Aung San Su Kyi, had visited India last year. Myanmar`s first civilian national security adviser, U. Thaung Tun had also recently visited New Delhi reportedly to deliberate on upgrading security infrastructure, border fencing issue, etc. Myanmar`s India`s Foreign Secretary and Army Chief have had substantive discussions at Naypitaw.
Of late, the Rohingya refugee problem, the ethnically disturbed situation in Rakhine province of Myanmar bordering Bangladesh, internal displacement and also eviction a huge number of them from the country, of approximately one million of them, seems to have become further exacerbated. The rise of a Rohingya fringe extremist group – the Arakan Rohingya Salvation Army (ARSA) and its second spell of armed assaults recently on Myanmar`s border outposts bordering Bangladesh, is likely to trigger further countervailing Myanmar security forces` repressive action on the Rohingyas and resultant refugee migration to the adjoining countries. The impact of Myanmar government`s policy vis-à-vis Rakhine and the Rohingyas viz. exclusion from citizenship, denial of work permits and physical violence against them, is being felt in many of Myanmar`s neighbouring countries both to its west and east, including India. India incidentally has sheltered nearly 33300 Rohingya refugees including a few in Jammu. This issue may have to be subtly and sensitively broached by the Indian premier and his delegation during the visit with a view to contain its ramifications on India as well as Bangladesh. Bangladesh has become an intermediate zone and sometimes a conduit in the Rohingya migration process towards India. Premier Modi is however expected to convey India`s support to Myanmar`s president and state councilor, regarding their government`s internal security endeavour towards combating extremist and fissiparous ethnic forces.
Government of India has been engaged since August 2015 in a broad-based dialogue process towards an eventual and comprehensive settlement of the Naga insurgency. The settlement may be difficult if the Nagas owing allegiance to the Nationalist Socialist Council of Nagalim (Khaplang) faction, are not made part of the reconciliation arrangement between India and the Naga community in general. The Khaplang faction has been operating in a self-administered zone near Taga in upper western Myanmar. New Delhi has a modicum of understanding with Naypitaw on the extent of autonomy the Khaplang elements are allowed by Myanmar Army (Tatmadaw) without disturbing the security milieu in India`s north-east. It will be interesting to see if the Indian premier can engage Myanmar`s state councillor and her Tatmadaw backed government to pressurise the Khaplang faction for a political accommodation with its rivals – the Issac-Muivah faction to enable the present dialogue between the Nagas and government of India to achieve consummation.
There are many issues regarding trade and economic assistance, which may be reviewed during premier Modi`s visit and expeditious course of execution chalked out. India cannot be expected to match China in terms of gross value of investment in Myanmar. However, it will be of essence to ensure that, there is a wide spread of India`s assistance in financial terms and in the actual process of implementation, throughout Myanmar, so that, not only the majority Burman community but also the different ethnic groups feel the beneficial impact. India`s investment and involvement in Myanmar, should have an effect towards reducing its regional disparities and consolidating that nation. A spin-off of such an effort will impact Rakhine province as well as the northern and north-eastern areas of Myanmar, home to Shan, Kachin, Karen and other communities, bordering China. India`s assistance for enhancing the capacity of the people of Myanmar to manage their small and medium enterprises and even many of the industrial, mining and infrastructural units efficiently, would be a worthwhile effort. Upgrading Indian assistance on vocational training, setting up infrastructure for the purpose, and hand-holding for some time, may be worked out for implementation in a reasonable time-frame. India`s Ministry of External Affairs may have to put in place a suitable oversight or overarching institutional mechanism for the purpose, under its aegis, which presently does not seem to exist.
India`s investment in Myanmar during (2011-12 to 2015-16) was US $ 38.2 million only. Myanmar`s investment in India has been inconsequential. This is notwithstanding a bilateral investment treaty (BIT) between the two countries from 2008 and its enforcement since 2009, and latent opportunities. A Joint Interpretative Statement (JIS) apropos the BIT, for providing a substantial measure of legal assurance to Myanmar`s investors in India without compromising Indian interests, has been submitted by New Delhi to Naypytaw recently. Government of India should attempt to elicit interest from Myanmar`s investors in the matter towards inducing their government to act fast on finalizing the JIS for a positive bilateral investment milieu to be created for mutual economic benefit.
Building suitable linkages between development projects in India`s north-eastern states and regional clusters in Myanmar, is of essence. But, progress in this regard till date, has not been very encouraging. However, India`s total developmental commitment to Myanmar, including the completed and on-going infrastructural projects like Kaladan Multi-modal Transit Transport project (two-third complete) and Trilateral (India-Myanmar-Thailand) Highway project, is around US $ 1.75 billion. These are expected to eventually have a beneficial impact on the contiguous regions of India`s north-east and Myanmar`s north-west and south-west. But, progress towards integrated planning and implementation of growth hubs along these infrastructural links, has been slow. The macro picture is still not clear. If this lacuna is not overcome, development through the above-referred projects will bypass the people and areas of both the countries, where most needed. It will be of essence to take care of this aspect during the forthcoming heads-of -government dialogue and beyond.
There is ample scope for India`s involvement in large measure towards improving Myanmar`s social sector and human development attributes. Different governments of India had expressed willingness to assist to the extent desired by Myanmar in health, education and agriculture sectors under small development projects which contribute significantly to the county`s socio-economic development, public welfare and empowers the communities. In keeping with the commitment conveyed during former premier Manmohan Singh`s visit to Myanmar in May, 2012, Myanmar is being offered 500 ITEC scholarships annually. It may be politically prudent to enable a segment of the Myanmarese students to avail training opportunities in India`s north-eastern institutions like B. Baruah Cancer Institute, Guwahati, North East Indira Gandhi Research Institute of Medical Sciences, Shillong and Regional Institute of Medical Sciences, Imphal. India`s `Act East` policy may then be more meaningfully implemented, promoting greater affinity between contiguous populace.
The thrust of India`s Myanmar policy should be the promotion of goodwill among people of contiguous regions of both the countries, a shared developmental effort reckoning the existence of diverse ethnic communities, and facilitating reconciliation among communities presently in mutually hostile disposition. Furthermore, the need for countering the creeping strategic dominance of China over Myanmar by the former`s huge investment in the latter`s key civil and military infrastructures, cannot be overlooked. Government of India cannot be oblivious to the strategic import of the China`s dominant stake (85%) being literally extracted from Myanmar towards development of Kyaukpyu deep seaport in the Bay of Bengal and the pipelines being operationalized for transportation of imported crude and natural gas to south-eastern China more expeditiously than at present. The presence of a huge Chinese establishment along a strategic north-south axis within Myanmar will have security implications for India. New Delhi may be able to counter this phenomenon only by some balancing investment within the peripheral regions of the port and the pipelines and also through the goodwill and favourable disposition of the Myanmarese whose capacities and expertise have been upgraded in management of their public delivery systems and enterprises which contribute towards their welfare and income generation.
(The author is a retired IDAS officer and a strategic affairs analyst).
feedbackexcelsior@gmail.com
Follow our WhatsApp channel
