Gautam Sen
Catalonia, home to 7.5 million people fiercely proud of their language and culture, and Spain`s richest province in its east on the Mediterranean coast, is in turmoil. A large section of the Catalonians wants independence from Spain as evident from the referendum of 1st October this year. Though the referendum was declared unconstitutional by Spain`s constitutional court and the country`s interior ministry deployed national police and Guardia Civil gendarme units in Catalonia to stop the voting, nearly 44 % voted and more than 90 % of them favoured independence.
The independence movement has been rapidly building up, led by Catalonia regional government`s president, Charles Puigdemont and his centre-right conservative Partit Democrata Europeu Catala (Catalan Democratic European party). Interestingly, the provincial government has remained in power in Barcelona, though functioning beyond the scope of legal authority and the national and provincial constitutional ambit in terms of observations of Spain`s king, Felipe VI and premier Mariano Rajoy. Rajoy has been warning of invoking the constitutional process of superseding the provincial Government under Article 155 of Spain`s constitution of 1977, assumption of temporary authority by functionaries appointed by the national government in Madrid, followed by elections in Catalonia within six months.
Puigdemont has of late, been publicly evincing interest in negotiations with Rajoy`s National Government, even though his provincial Government has officially accepted the referendum verdict without unilaterally declaring independence. However, the writ of Madrid`s central authority has been systematically undermined by Puigdemont and his supporters within the province. It is a highly volatile situation of mass hysteria whipped up by the supporters of independence, widespread lawlessness in the region, apart from de-activation of the 16000-strong provincial constabulary, Mossos d`Esquadra (MdE) and threats to those opposed to Catalonia`s independence including to some of the media.
While the central authorities at Madrid still formally had jurisdiction over Catalonia in certain administrative and legal domains as per the constitution, but were unable to exercise the same substantively. Despite MdE`s personnel remaining loyal to the Puigdemont government, the latter did not exert provincial government authority through it for maintenance of law and order in Catalonia. It appeared that Puigdemont was trying to buy time and test international, and particularly reaction in the EU countries, towards support for Catalonia`s independence, while maintaining political pressure on Madrid to decentralise more authority to the province in the political and economic realms. Spain`s governance system is centralist, with some powers on the executive side and in juridical matters decentralized at the provincial level, though not uniformly among the provinces.
A ruling of Spain`s constitutional court in 2010 has set limits to Catalonia`s claim to be an independent state and there is no enabling dispensation under the existing constitutional and legal processes for secession. However, supersession of a provincial government under Spain`s constitutional and legal processes is provided for with checks and balances, though this is a protracted process. A formal invoking of Article 155 of its constitution popularly known as the `nuclear option`, is required to be ratified by the national senate. The Catalonian government of Puidgimont has the option to be heard by the senate, though it is likely to be rejected considering the majority enjoyed by Rajoy`s conservative Partido Popular (Popular Party) in the senate and the broad political consensus at the national level and support of PSOE (Spanish Socialist Workers Party) and Ciudadanos, a new liberal party, to Rajoy`s government against acceding to independence for the province. Even after ratification, the decision can be challenged in court.
Premier Rajoy`s government has since invoked Article 155 of Spain`s constitution, but stopped short of dissolving Catalonia`s parliament. A national government statement has declared inter-alia that, the Puigdemont government has been stripped of its powers and its functions would be assumed by relevant ministries in Madrid. Rajoy`s government has also indicated that, a series of measures will be introduced regarding sensitive issues such as public order forces` management, taxation, budget and telecommunications. As expected, there has been widespread hostile reaction in Catalonia, with the speaker of the province`s parliament declaring that the measures taken by Madrid as a de-facto coup de-tat. At the national level, only the left-wing Podemos party has criticized the central measures, stating that Rajoy wanted to humiliate Catalonia, and the most corrupt party in Europe with 8.5 % voter support in Catalonia, will henceforth govern the province. Madrid has however, received support from the European Union (EU) member countries in the Council of Europe meeting on 21st October, 2017.
Failure to institute Madrid`s authority on Catalonia in a broad-based consensual manner, with a political modus vivendi between the Rajoy government and Puigdemont and his supporters in the interim, on enhanced political powers and economic autonomy for the province, will only harm Spain`s economy and socio-economic status of Catalonia. Catalonia with 16 % of Spain`s population, has been contributing more than 25 % of the national GDP and its exports. The impact of the turmoil is evident from latest data of Spain`s National Association of Registers, indicating decision of more than 1100 companies operating in Catalonia, to re-locate their operations outside the province. This will affect productivity and performance of Catalonia`s economy. A compromise solution may still be feasible between Piugdemont and Rajoy, provided some arrangement for re-deployment of a larger share of the public revenue raised in Catalonia within the province is worked out, with additional investment on Catalonian cultural institutions and protection of its heritage and in its secondary and tertiary sectors. Catalonia contributes 20 % of the total revenue of Spain while only 16 % are spent on public services in the province.
Spain is an important member of the EU and the Eurozone. The crisis is likely to impact the EU, though Donald Tusk, its president has opined that concerning Catalonia there is no space for intervention by EU. While Scotland`s independence from Britain with consequential impact on EU, even after Brexit, is not a closed issue, there has yet not been any case of an EU member country disintegrating politically or a part of it seceding. Should Catalonia secede from Spain, there would be implications for the EU to the extent its relationship with both Spain and the breakaway region will have to be re-determined. Moreover, further commitment from the European Central Bank (ECB) to shore up the Eurozone`s common currency, the Euro (Spain is a part of the Eurozone), may be necessary owing to the contribution of the Spanish economy content in the EU economy, shrinking. Re-working of Spain`s debt to the ECB will also be necessary. Notwithstanding the official stance of the EU president, there will be an impact of Catalonia`s secession on EU, should it finally occur.
There has not been any significant reaction from the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO) of which Spain is a member, vis-à-vis the Catalonia issue. However, NATO may not be adversely affected with the secession of Catalonia from Spain, if both the states are eventually accepted as members of the organization and there is no violence in the separation process ie. armed insurrection by the secessionists countered by attempts at military suppression by Madrid. Violent confrontation within existing Spain may however, have repercussions on NATO, Madrid`s commitment to the alliance, apart from weakening the alliances military posture and strategic presence in the Mediterranean littoral region, at least for some time. With an economy comparable to Denmark, and viable port facilities in Barcelona and Tarragona in the Catalan region on the Mediterranean coast, an independent Catalonia may eventually be in a position to contribute adequately to NATO finances and its deployable military resources. Having functioned effectively during the Cold War period notwithstanding mutual hostility between two of its crucial members in the Mediterranean viz. Greece and Turkey on Cyprus, NATO may be able to manage the new situation to ensure reasonable inter-operability between the contributing contingents of Spain and Catalonia as well as in relation to other establishments and components of the organization.
Premier Rajoy is credited as being a political leader with immense patience and sagacity. Fortunately, the existing Spanish polity based on the democratic constitution of 1977, has enough latitude to resolve constitutional crises. There is a view that, the Catalonian president Puigdemont is really not seeking a traumatic separation but a new understanding with the Spanish state. With the above-mentioned attributes of Spain`s incumbent leadership and in the context of the present political eco-system, a rapprochement may still be possible between Madrid and Barcelona. Even after the assumption of authority by the Spanish national government through the instrumentality of Article 155 of Spain`s constitution, a solution may emerge leading to enhanced and more comprehensive autonomy for Catalonia on par with other areas like the Basque region. The outcome of the forthcoming provincial elections in Catalonia, will also be a crucial determinant.
(The author is a retired IDAS officer who has served in senior appointments with Government of India and a State Government.)
The views expressed are the author`s own.
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