India and Afghanistan

M K Dhar
US President Barack Obama’s re-election holds out hope for the people of Afghanistan, whose country has been devastated by insurgency, of continued international support for their efforts to restore normalcy and rehabilitate their shattered lives. Even as Washington stands committed to withdraw its forces, together with those of NATO countries by 2014, it has assured Kabul of continued help in protecting its security and sovereignty against continued threat from the Taliban with support from Pakistan. President Obama has already signed a Strategic Partnership Agreement with Afghan President Hamid Karzai and is currently negotiating a Status of Forces Agreement to ensure presence of some US troops to back up the fighting capabilities of the afghan National Army.
Among neighbours India has made the maximum contribution to Afghanistan’s infrastructure building with commitments of upto $ 2.5 billion. During his recent Indian visit, President Karzai acknowledged India as a very generous and frontline supporter and asked Indian entrepreneurs to invest in his country and profit from exploitation of its rich mineral wealth including oil, gas, iron and gold. He reminded them that China already moved in and signed several lucrative deals and that Indian corporates should not shy away from investing as security would not be a threat to their business. Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, with whom he had a detailed discussion on the situation in his country and regional developments and their impact on Afghanistan, assured him of intensification of strategic economic partnership which would build on synergies for mutual benefit. Afghanistan’s regional economic integration would contribute to overall prosperity and stability in the region.
Ignoring what Russia, China and Pakistan have been dinning into his ears, Mr. Karzai admits he will need foreign assistance in several forms after the 2014 deadline for their withdrawal. He was in discussion with Washington over the format of US troops presence. ‘Yes, we need their presence; in what form and under what conditions we will find out”. Kabul has put some conditions under the Strategic Partnership and also on future security agreement. The International Security Assistance Force is gradually transferring security duties to the Afghan National army in several places which now directly faces the Taliban, hezb-e-Islami and other militants, giving a good account of itself in many encounters. The ANA is expected to reach its maximum strength in the next two years but will need equipment, ammunition, transport and other logistic facilities, in addition to expert guidance and an integrated chain of command. It should be able to stand on its own in the near future and fight off insurgency, which is bound to increase post -2014, and protect country’s security and sovereignty.
During his Indian visit, Mr. Karzai clearly stated that the terrorists troubling his forces and the ISAF came over from Pakistan. “It is no longer a secret and Pakistan does not deny that anymore. The region is infested with sanctuaries”, he said, adding that this has been repeatedly conveyed to the US, officially and through the media.  He would have a frank discussion of this subject with President Obama.  The war on terror could not be fought in Afghanistan, because it was not in Afghanistan, wherever they are. Replying to a question he regretted the failure of the region to provide for itself in terms of security and the clarity to fight against extremism and terrorism. “The region itself has provided reasons for America and NATO to come. We are to blame for what is happening. Clearly, the region has brought the trouble that pains us so much today, upon ourselves”.
In what is obviously a tactical move, Afghanistan’s Independent Election has invited the insurgents to participate in the next Presidential election scheduled to be held on April 5, 2014. President Karzai has opted out because he cannot seek a third term under the Afghan Constitution. The Taliban have so far rejected all overtures to negotiate a political settlement and join the mainstream and they are less likely to take the bait now, when the international forces are to leave the country soon. This will be the third democratic election since the Taliban were ousted by the US and Northern Alliance forces, though there were complains of rigging in the last election in which karzai’s former Foreign Minister Abdullah was the opposition candidate, but lost.
All attempts to hold serious negotiations with the Taliban on restoration of peace were successfully sabotaged by Pakistan, which wants a settlement on its terms; which means a surrogate government in Kabul wholly dependant on it and carrying out its command. Mr. karzai gave up his efforts as Pakistani agencies got some of the negotiators killed or arrested. The US, which had used Qatar as a venue for talks with the Taliban, too has given up in frustration because the Islamabad-controlled hardliners stick to their conditions — total withdrawal of foreign forces, removal of the Karzai Government from power and scrapping the democratic constitution of Afghanistan to facilitate their taking over the country again.
Much needs to be done to improve governance in Afghanistan and the performance of the Security Forces charged with protecting the population. Unless Mr. Karzai devoted attention to this evil, corruption could remain parasitic in the Central government, as well as, in the provinces.
Mr. Karzai wants India to get more interested in Afghanistan’s development lest it is edged out in competition with other foreign countries. Pakistan has been urging on him to let the Americans go and depend, instead, on China to provide security and develop the country. Islamabad wants to limit Indian influence by its own efforts through the Taliban, who attacked the Indian Embassy and have killed several personnel employed with Indian projects and; secondly, through China, which is not too friendly to us in the region. India has, and will continue to play a role, focusing on providing economic and commercial assistance building infrastructure and social services. Afghanistan is being slowly integrated into SAARC to help generate economic activity to the tune of $ 2 billion a year. The US believes that India should serve as a corner stone of a “New Silk Road” initiative that will entrench Kabul as a commercial bridge between south and Central Asia and promote its political and economic development.
Four more agreements were signed by Mr karzai in New Delhi on small development projects, fertilizers, mines and youth affairs. India has granted another $ 100 million to build small and important infrastructure projects in all the 34 provinces, covering about 100 in all. The objective is to reach India’s influence to various communities and also provide backing to the Afghan government in its development activities. New Delhi will also train more Afghan Army officers in anti-guerrilla warfare and develop their leadership skills.

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