Col J P Singh
In Berkley University US, a student asked Rahul Gandhi, “when are you getting married to which Rahul said, “mein destiny mien believe karta hun, jab hogi, hogi”. The destiny, which had eluded him for too long is currently on his side. He has been elevated to the Captaincy of Congress(ship) on 16th December 2017. Having done 13 years of internship under mother cum Congress president Sonia Gandhi, Rahul, the dynast of India’s grand old political party was declared President of the Congress unopposed. That is a big step forward for a dynast and one giant leap for the Congress Party. But two days later, he got a near miss from an electoral victory. Though he lost fiercely contested Gujarat and Himachal electoral battles, he seems to have won the war. I don’t see Rahul’s simultaneous rise & fall an unusual phenomenon in politics because nature is a unique balancer. It gives one as much as one deserves. Such had been the fate of many other political dynasts such as Akhilesh Yadav, a similarly placed dynast. Finally Rahul is the 6th in the Nehru-Gandhi line of succession to become President of the grand old Indian National Congress, an event cherished by the family and the party.
The demographic dividends have eluded Congress since 2014. The trend continued even after he was appointed vice-president of the party and virtually given full command of the organisation. Rahul takes over formally at a time when Congress has seen many sets backs electorally one after the other under his command. Presently it has lowest ever tally in the current Lok Sabha. It lost the popular mandate in states like UP despite teaming up with SP led by another popular young Yadav dynast. Teaming up with three budding leaders in Gujarat has favoured Congress. My take is, young leaders have started reposing faith in him and the coalition politics has started favouring his captaincy.
Finally the ‘crown of thorns’ is on his head. What does Rahul do now. He may change the political discourse of the country which he couldn’t do as vice president. Destiny is offering him opportunities but the times are certainly not in his favour because the hard times have fallen over the party after it formed the govt in Delhi in 2004. It got embroiled in corruption which became free for all. The bogies of corruption and policy paralysis which stung the Congress led to its miserable fall in 2014. Having lost Gujarat and Himachal now, the future is not very bright for him.
Now that he is the president of an old and most populous opposition party, there are certain expectations from him. Common citizen, particularly elderly lot still seeks a connect with the famous Gandhi-Nehru dynasty. Gandhi-Nehru name carries a great deal of weight in India. Even if Rahul’s surname Gandhi is no way linked to Mahatma Gandhi, it is his asset. Rahul’s surname comes from Feroz Gandhi, the husband of his grandmother Indira, who was not a public icon. Yet his surname favours him as much as it did to his predecessors. Youth want to connect to the young dynast. Hence the question arises what does the nation expect from Gandhi dynast? It expects him to win coming elections, not win by mere electoral mathematics, but also by offering an alternative to BJP and when the need arises to replace Modi as prime ministers. Congress leaders expect him to revive the Congress to its pristine glory. They want an alternative that can give them their plural, multicultural individuality against the Hindutva homogeneity being imposed by Modi led BJP. Congress worker is wanting him to become prime minister in 2019. Having narrowly lost Gujarat, Rahul has a long way to go upto May 2019. He has eight significant assembly elections before him in 2018. Expectations are high, the job is difficult. Rahul has to cover lot of bumpy ground before reaching the destination. It is here that the destiny should come to his help.
When BJP talks of ‘Congress Mukt Bharat’, Rahul Gandhis’s job becomes more difficult ie to lift Congress fortunes to the level to make it an alternative to the BJP. He has to keep Congress connected to his cadre and core vote bank as he has managed to do in Gujarat by encashing on anti BJP sentiment. He needs to strengthen local leaders and extend his personal outreach to the masses. His priority task should be to rebuild a grid of popular base, take full command of the electoral battles and enforce extensive door to door campaigning by the party workers in the forthcoming elections. During the past Congress rule, the govt and the party became synonymous with red tape which Modi exploited to great effect. He needs to roll the red-tape, listen to people and instead of fanning the deep communal / caste divisions, offer a harmonising narrative of socio-economic inclusivity at the national level.
Next year there are Assembly elections in Karnatka, MP, Chhatisgarh, Rajasthan and four northeastern states. The first four are BJP strongholds. In all these elections the contest will be direct between Congress and BJP. There is an opportunity and a challenge to revive his party’s fortune and fuse it with his destiny. After 18 months there are Lok Sabha elections in which Rahul will take Modi head on singly or in coalition. That is a great job ahead.
Another task before Rahul is to favour the merit. Earlier the Congress didn’t reward merit. Pranab Mukerjee should have been the PM but it preferred lesser deserving Dr. Manmohan Singh. As a result many horrendous scandals and scams plagued Congress led UPA regime which finally led to Congress waterloo in 2014. Defeats in UP, Assam, Goa, Himachal and Gujarat are attributed to the same. Hemanta Biswas, most popular Congress leader of Assam, was ignored and the results was defeat. It did the same in Gujarat as a result one of their tall leader left congress before the election and two tall leaders lost the election. Despite it, from here on, Rahul looks gaining strength with two things happening simultaneously ie his rise in the party and drop of BJP numbers in Gujarat. Gaining 18 / 19 seats in Gujarat against Modi is great recovery.
Congress revival is important as the nation needs a strong opposition to apply various checks and balances on the ruling party. When in the near future it faces the election heat in Karnataka, Rahul’s leadership will be put to test. If he succeeds in Karnataka, he succeeds in 2019. If he fails there, he fails in 2019. It is here that the destiny will play its part. Seeing Congress rise in Gujarat under Rahul leadership, it will be fifty fifty in Karnataka which Rahul should exploit. He has to rise to the level that he can match upto charismatic prime minister Modi who enjoys high popularity domestically and a high profile internationally. Various popularity polls held earlier put Modi’s popularity at 88 % and that of Rahul at 58. That is to be noted. Rahul has to strive hard to overtake Modi in popularity rating. It is here that the destiny has to favour him and Rahul himself has to raise the stakes higher and remember;
Kar khudi ko buland itna, kih har taqdir se pehle, Khuda bande se pooche bataa teri raza kia hai?
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