Dr. Sudershan Kumar
Recent announcement from White House about the meeting of President Donald Trump with North Korean dictator Kim Jong-Un some time in the first of week of June elicited mixed reactions and political whiplash. On one side, Trump’s admirers applauded the initiative whereas another section became skeptical about it seeing it as a risky gamble made in haste.
This meeting is important keeping in view of the aggressive postures adopted by both the leaders and the escalating conflict between them. As is evident from the war of words between the two where on one side Donald Trump had called Kim-Jong-Un a Rocket man and threatened to rain fire and fury, while North Korean dictator reciprocated by calling Trump a doctored old lunatic. This battle of words between the two has it’s inception from the time, when North Korea tested Hydrogen Bomb and Inter Continental Ballistic Missile which it developed despite UN sanctions suggesting support from some nations. As per claims made by North Korea, its missile had a range to knock out important cities of United States of America. American announcement to impose stricter sanctions against North Korea was to exert pressure on North Korea to forgo this nuclear program and to bring it to the negotiation table did not yield desired results. It was only the fear of fire and fury from US President that promoted South Korea to evolve strategy to avoid nuclear confrontation between the two. In the whole episode South Korean President and his National Security Advisor(NSA) played a key role to bring both of them on negotiation terms. In fact Donald Trump taking different line now, expressing openness for talks with Kim seemed unimaginable especially when he had threatened to completely destroy North Korea during his UN speech in September 2017. Experts feel it is the success of South Korean President’s impetus for “any time and any where” diplomacy with Pyongyang. Moon’s efforts got major boost during winter Olympics at Pyeongchang. South Korean leader used this occasion to set the stage for unprecedented USA-North Korea summit. Ironically and significantly, no Amercian president has ever met his Northern Korean counterpart over a span of seven decades.
Therefore, this immensely volatile initiative of diplomatic talks with an adversary by the US President is an outcome of an impulsive President’s desire to sort out one of the most historic and contagious issue with North Korea even without gauging its gravity and impact on world order. Contemplating such summits should be based on prolonged thread bare discussions evaluating it’s pros and cons and sufficient progress being made on ground between seasoned diplomats of the two countries. Generally the meeting between the two heads of state is either to kick start the dialogue or to crack the ice between the drawn red lines and also to keep the momentum going. If one looks at world scenario, in earlier occasions also American Presidents have met to resolve the complicated issues. President Richard Nixon visited China to open its diplomatic relations in 1972. President Jimmy Carter forged Isreal- Egypt peace accord in 1978. President Obama called on Iranian President to discuss the nuclear deal. All these meetings have happened after the completion of complete ground work between one of the most experienced diplomats of the countries and there was no political vacuum. But with Donald Trump’s unpredictability, it is very important for US strategists and policy makers to hold discussions with their counterparts to arrive at some sort of mutual common ground in terms of issues and successfully materialize this meeting, otherwise it may end up in virtually opposite direction. Hence Donald Trump’s present team members Mike Pompeo and John Bolton are working hard to make this summit a success but stakes are very high. As per earlier reports there has been no official statement from North Korea. It was only South Korea which claims that Kim has agreed to for denuclearization, no missile testing etc. But this is under what terms and conditions, is under clouds. Moreover USA’s risk and prestige are immensely at stake specifically if Kim asks for withdrawal of troops from Korean Peninsula against denuclearization.
In such circumstances, its allies South Korea and Japan have also to be taken on board. The China, which is emerging as a global and economic power will not like to remain isolated from summit and will ensure that Kim does not succumb to US pressure. Hence the visit of North Korea dictator Kim Jong to Beijing by train was a step in that direction. Although Chinese did inform Americans about the visit yet discussions between the two leaders Xi and Kim were not made public. From this whole scenario it emerges that President Donald Trump is highly optimistic on the outcome of this summit. As per reports, each stakeholder is interpreting complete denuclearization in his own way. US may be keen that Kim will agree to cap its nuclear program, dismantle its nuclear infrastructure and destroy its present war heads besides also enabling verification of its nuclear facilities. Some of these may be agreed by Kim against the hard bargain of complete withdrawal of US troops from Korean Peninsula. This will always be associated with a degree of scepticism and threat to US security.
Besides, Kim’s earlier statements that possession of nuclear capability in terms of missiles/war heads is like an insurance policy which can be en cashed at the time of need in future furthers raise eyebrows about its commitment. On the contrary, North Korea may not concede towards annihilation of its war nuclear war heads as it is well acquainted that there are around 14200 war nuclear war heads available around the globe with US being in possession of around 6400 and Russia having around 6600 while the remaining are with six other countries including China and Pakistan.
Besides, sighting Donald Trump’s policy of “America First”, the results of the summit can have immense repercussions in global arena and may create some vacuum globally. This may be filled by China, who is trying to catch up America militarily also. Even Russia being a formidable nuclear force will also poke its nose. America’s present policy of review of earlier agreements has not been viewed positively by other countries including its close allies. Notably among them being withdrawal from WTO climate change Paris agreement and withdrawal from Iranian nuclear deal. Therefore author is of the view that Trump- Kim summit may not yield desired results but will certainly change the world dynamics.
(The author is former Director General DRDO & Special Secretary MOD GoI)
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