Dr. Sudershan Kumar
As Pakistan went to polls on the 25th of July, undoubtedly the immense implications these elections carry with the upcoming future political scenario will surely have mammoth bearing on south asia region, specially India keeping in mind its infamous terrorist background. More so the fear and apprehensions raised by the international community is valid in view of the incongenial environment there with plethora of terrorist organisations proliferating. People are divided, intolerance is on rampage, economy is in doldrums and under huge debts with fanatics issuing dictates. This environment is the road towards chaos and anarchy. Even United States of America and the European Union have raised concerns over the participation of parties like Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT) through its political wing Allah-O-Akbar, Tehreek Mallahids Majlis-e-Amal(MMA) and many other radicalized splinters groups. More perturbing to note is that the most wanted dreaded terrorist and master mind of Mumbai attack Hafiz Saeed had also fielded his son Hafiz Tallaha Saeed and his son in law Hafiz Saeed Khalid Waleed from Punjab Province of Pakistan. Pakistan’s election commission also accepted their nominations for NA91 ( Sargodha IV) andNA133( Lahore XI) respectively. Besides Allah-o-Akbar Tehreek party fielded around 265 candidates including these two. Besides, other splinter groups had also fielded around 365 candidates. The participation of these parties associated with militant outfits and fundamentalists vitiated the election environment and posed a formidable challenge to National parties like Pakistan Muslim League- Nawaz ( PML-N), Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP) and Pakistan Tehrek-e-Insaf (PTI). These developments do raise eyebrows making one thing apparent that participation of these fringe elements would not have been there without the tactical support of a certain power centre in Pakistan. Their main aim to be pursued is to keep the democracy in Pakistan in a vulnerable state so that none of the political parties would gain absolute majority in Pak National Assembly. This will in turn facilitate increased dependency of these parties on these fringe elements, which will be remotely controlled by Pakistani army and Inter Service Intelligent agency (ISI). This game plan of Pak army and ISI was very well comprehended by Islamabad High Court Justice Shoukat Aziz Siddiqui, who went upon to the extent of saying, “These military and Intelligence has conspired to manipulate the judiciary and Government. The court proceedings are manipulated from where the strings are pulled and when the power is wielded and maneuvered to achieve the desired results.” He further advised them to refrain from meddling with other departments in the interest of country
All these circumstances and conjunctures do compel us to ask certain questions. Are these elections in Pakistan for its national assembly fair, free and transparent ? Do we need to introspect over the dominance of radicalized Islamists elements ? Is the dubious role of Pak army and the ISI to achieve desired results a matter of grave concern. The above compounding factors would have some repercussions on the globe and especially in South Asia with its neighbours India, Afghanistan and Bangladesh facing the main brunt. To find an answer to all these intricacies , one will have to go back to history of creation of Pakistan. Pakistan was born as an insecure state and it remains so till date. Since the division of British ruled India was on the name of religion, so Pakistan always treated India as their eternal foe. Hence Pakistani establishments always remained under the fear that India, who is larger in size and in population will always dominate Pakistan in international arena and will destroy them as and when the opportunity arises. Hence the army establishment in Pakistan has always justified their role in running the state by arguing that they not only to protect the territorial integrity of the Pakistan but will also protect Islamic Ideology of Pakistan. This narrative of Pakistan army has mesmerized the civilian population and government to extent that the civilian government in Pakistan never made any efforts to have control on Pakistan Defense Policy and also its foreign policy for South Asia.
Hence Pakistan army and its powerful spy agency ISI had full control on these two important departments. The defense minister has always been irrelevant. This has been going on right from the time of creation of Pakistan i.e 14th August 1947 to till date. In this short political history of seven decades, Pakistan as a country has witnessed turbulence and has been oscillating between Military Coups and weak Civilian Government. The Pakistani military dictators Field Marshal Mohammad Ayub Khan, General Yahya Khan, General Zia-ul-Haq and President General Pervez Musharraf have ruled the nation and also ensured that the Civilian government remained a weakling thus fortifying their influence and endorsing their supremacy. As a sequel of this, any Civilian leader either Prime Minister or President, who tried to exert or showed dominance, was implicated on one pretext or other. Even Nawaz Sharif’s elected government faced a similar fate when he tried to sack the then army Chief from his post. Even before the present general elections in the year 2018, the Supreme Court has awarded 10 years sentence to Nawaz Sharif and seven years to his daughter Maryam. So that his political party PML(N) is marginalized in 25th July elections. It is regrettable and worrisome to note from the election rallies and also from the unconfirmed reports that certain power centre in Pakistan have thrown their weight on Imran Khan’s political party (PTI). Moreover, these general elections assume significance even more as the hard liner Islamist group have jostled religion in the centre of Pakistan’s elections. They have fielded nearly 1500 candidates both for national and provincial assemblies. This number is three times more as compared to 2013 general elections. The leaders of these hard line Islamist group are openly spilling venom against India, USA and other Western countries. The leaders of these parties also have strong belief that if voted to power, they will implement stringent shariat laws in Pakistan on the pattern of Taliban rule in Afghanistan. Unfortunately as per the unconfirmed survey reports the prediction of a hung assembly with Imran Khan’s party as a single largest party has emerged. His party may further form the Government with support of small parties who have affiliation with militants / radicalized fundamentalists sections of society. These splinter group will try to dictate their terms which may not be in the interest of Pakistan and also will have long range repercussions on South Asian countries specially India, Afghanistan and Bangladesh.
The author is of the view that Post Election Scenario of Pakistan will not be congenial for South Asia. The weak civilian Government in Pakistan would be crippled and paralysed and would not be in a position to rein in Pakistan under the horrible shadows of militants organizations. The Pakistan will continue to remain as a terror state. Hence the Govt. of India will have to evolve a strategy to fight not only proxy war but also cyber terrorism to counter malicious propaganda and app messages via highly innovative technologies. Also Pakistan will have to be shown the door for its misadventure on the LOC & on IB.
(The author is former Director General & Special Secretary DRDO, MoD, GoI)
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