Vishal Sharma
The year 2019 in Kashmir may not be any different from 2018, which has just bid us good bye. This was messaged in no uncertain terms by the Prime Minister, Narendra Modi, in his interview to the ANI editor on first day of the New Year when he deftly skirted the question on holding talks on Kashmir either with Pakistan or the internal stake holders. His views on Kashmir in that sense continue to be guided by the approach followed by New Delhi post Uri terror attack. As the general elections near, apparently there isn’t strong enough alternate rationale for New Delhi to reconsider its current approach.
While New Delhi appears to have foreclosed other options on Kashmir for the moment, Washington appears to be relooking its policy on Afghanistan. There are at least two indicators, which suggest US may rethink its Af-Pak policy in the immediate future. One, President Trump’s recent cabinet meeting, which was televised and, in which he seemed to berate his generals; calling them out on their failures to accomplish substantial military victories in Afghanistan despite fighting what is perhaps the longest war in US’s history. Second, Trump has recently expressed his willingness to hold talks with Pakistani leadership on Afghanistan. This is a radical departure from condemning Pakistanis as parasites living off the American doles and two-timing cheats not long ago.
There is an explicit message in all of this for inertia stricken New Delhi. If US revisits its role in Afghanistan; reducing its presence or pulling out completely, this will have repercussions in Kashmir. For all its disdain for Taliban, US has been holding talks with the latter in Qatar for months now, although they have led nowhere. US’s engagement of Taliban is itself a measure of the precedence it gives to being flexible when approaching a mercurial opponent like Taliban. These parleys have gone on despite the fact that the two continue to battle each other in the plains and the rugged mountains of Afghanistan.
If US were to look for a negotiated solution, mediated by Pakistan, which holds a significant sway over the Taliban, it could be faced with two possible solutions: One, it pulls out altogether, leaving current Afghan government to deal with Taliban to arrive at a mutually agreed framework of ruling the country or it could get Taliban to be a part of the current Afghan government and also continue to maintain a semblance of presence, more as observers than to hold out any serious threat to Taliban should they renege on their promise.
It does not appear that the second option will be acceptable to Taliban for they would not want to do any business with what they perceive as a puppet government especially in presence of the Americans. Their avowed aim has always been to get every single American out of Afghan soil, which means they would only settle for the first option. Now there could be arguments for and against as to whether US will pull out of Afghanistan completely particularly as that may be seen as a victory of Taliban. But the reality is with Trump anything is possible. Especially as he has on more than one occasion in the past let it known that US should get out of the troubled spots across the world where its presence has far outlived its utility. The recent Trump announcements on Syria and Afghanistan and Mattis’s resignation therefore can’t be ignored outrightly.
While there could be potentially trouble for the entire south asian neighbourhood, New Delhi, least of all, can’t sit smugly ignoring the signs emanating from Washington. Up until now, New Delhi has bet on the side of Washington staying militarily invested in Afghanistan. If Washington were to leave Afghanistan, it is a no brainer that the Taliban will step in to fill the breach almost instantly for the Afghan security forces do not have in them to hold them off even for a day. Already more than 70 percent of the Afghan territory is under direct or indirect Taliban control.
Taliban at the helm in Kabul would be a different proposition altogether for Indians from a present friendly Ghani or the previous Karzai Government. Whatever Indian presence is currently in Afghanistan has been due mainly to friendly American presence there. With Taliban holding Kabul, not only will the Indians be squeezed out of Afghanistan, but the shadow of the Taliban will start appearing on Kashmir horizon as well. Pakistan would have found its lost strategic depth and the supply chain deficit of foreign militants in the Valley could well be a thing of the past as well. Imagine what all of this can lead to in Kashmir.
New Delhi needs to reconsider its present policy on Kashmir for it is zero sum in nature. For instance, there is no value in not talking to Pakistan or internal stakeholders as engagement can give them a sense that India is willing to resolve the issue through dialogue. The dialogue doesn’t necessarily have to be Valley centric in the beginning. If India agrees to talk, it can today even seek to choose its structure and spread it over reasonable time to create consensus within the country. Tomorrow it may not have this luxury. If India continues to look the other way when Pakistan is almost begging for talks, this, in the event of Taliban returning to helm Kabul, would be interpreted to mean that India wants to settle it through the might of gun. This could be disastrous.
In fact, there is a strong case for New Delhi to even open channels of dialogue with Taliban. If US and Russia can talk to Taliban, there is even stronger logic for India to start a conversation with Taliban. There are reports that India has already reached out to Taliban, but this engagement needs to be increased and institutionalized. A friendly Taliban will act as a bulwark against potential disturbance in Kashmir. In realpolitik, it’s the nation’s interests that should determine its policies and not the perceptions anchored in the biblical definitions of good and evil. The sooner New Delhi understands this, the stronger it will find itself in dealing with the Kashmir issue in the coming weeks and months.
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