Shiban Khaibri
Could it not be called an economic misadventure and an enticing manoeuvring to guarantee “minimum income” to the poor and if it could be possible for the Congress Party in 2019 with “more” existing problems , why it could neither be conceded nor even promised during UPA1 and 2 rule of ten long years with “no problems” or is it an acknowledgement of the BJP led NDA Government having built a comparative strong economic base with sound fundamentals with a vision of a strong $5 trillion economy within next 5 years, so as to enable the next government embark upon such a step of far reaching consequences. While Rahul Gandhi must have done a thorough home work and sought ‘expert advice’ from his expert advisors on the subject, P. Chidambaram must spill the beans and make it clear as to why such a decision was going to attain “historicity” in 2019 as he has termed the “decision as a historic one” and not earlier during the long tenure of ten years preceding the NDA rule. It may be noted that Rahul Gandhi has promised minimum income guarantee to poor if Congress was voted to power and that the Party would ensure ‘minimum income guarantee’ for every poor person in the country . The big question is as to whether Rahul Gandhi can deliver this promise, hypothetically assuming, Congress came to power in 2019.
Haze, mist and uncertainty of many hues are heaping it all for the Party in using every possible way, every measure and every means to attempt to win the next elections which under democratic set up like any other party they are otherwise entitled to but floating such ideas as the one under reference seem quite untenable . The utopian idea of the Government guarantee of a fixed monthly income under Universal Basic Income (UBI) could be in a diluted way successfully implemented by the Direct Transfer Benefit (DTB) by the present dispensation by first universally adopting Banking accessibility for the prospective recipients which it took the shape of the mass movement of Jan Dhan Yojna. Not only various benefits and subsidies could be transferred direct into the beneficiaries’ accounts but areas of leakages , corruption and inordinate delays could successfully be managed. That in itself is no mean achievement when late Rajiv Gandhi with mammoth support in the Lok Sabha could not help lamenting about one fourth of the Rupee only reaching the targeted groups out of the funds sent by the Central Government, to arrest which, he could apparently do nothing absolutely and the system continued to operate as it is.
The basic difference between the Universal Basic Income and the Minimum Income Guarantee is that while every citizen is guaranteed a monthly income regardless of social , educational or economic standing under Universal Basic Income , on the other hand , under the scheme of the things of Rahul Gandhi it is to do in respect of just 20 percent of the population. Now the term “every poor” is ambiguous as to with what yardstick is the poverty of an individual to be measured and whether an up-to-date data is ready to identify and benefit one under the proposed scheme notwithstanding the source of financial arrangements expected to cross Rs. 800000 crore annually as per initial estimates. Rs. 8 lac crore means nearly three times the budget on defence, very easy said than done. Assuring that “there would be no hungry nor any poor people in India any longer”, Rahul Gandhi claimed to always do what he promised. However, on ground, there is hardly any achievement of the sorts to make this claim.
Rather upset with the 10 percent reservation to economically backward sections in the general category announced recently by Modi Government and apprehensive of affecting their poll prospects , this “promise” has been made and assured to be fulfilled provided Congress was voted to power in 2019 , a quid-pro-quo while claiming sympathy for the poor simultaneously which right from Indira Gandhi’s “Garibi Hatao” in 70s and early 80s to Rajiv Gandhi down to Dr. Manmohan Singh remained just on papers or with marginal changes. Manmohan Singh’s “within 100 days’ turnaround of economy” as promised in the elections of 2009 proved just promises unfulfilled like “Garibi Hatao ” slogans raised by the Old Party due to which it won elections after elections on that count. Prudence and propriety demanded an elaboration on details of the proposal of MIG by the Congress President. However, an unskilled labourer in most of the cities and towns earns anywhere between Rs. 400 to Rs.450 or Rs. 500 per day which means Rs.12000 per month considered otherwise to be insufficient and unmanageable to run a dignified life and even if only 20% of the households were targeted, arranging such a whooping amount annually would perhaps come from taxing middle and higher income groups coupled with curtailing other vital expenditures of the Government on developmental activities which would set in a chain , pressing an urgent economic and development oriented projects suffering enormously.
We have seen the fate of MGNREGA scheme providing 100 days employment which if critically appraised, has proved no better in totality as apart from its various shortcomings, it did not paint a better picture on the canvas of economic development as we watched double digital inflation during the UPA regime . The “game changer Scheme” for Congress could not , at least help to a minimal extent, in preventing farmers suicides or mitigating farm distress. The question is whether MIG was an economic solution both of fighting unemployment as well as taking on earning less than the minimum amount as wages by the workers in both organised as well as unorganised sectors. Is our country in a position to require such a scheme and can we afford it? Will the poor actually receive the benefits intended for them ? We have not only more mouths to feed with the limited rather than very limited means but the condition in farm sector is really a cause of concern and merely by loan waivers, the condition could not be ameliorated of the general farming community. It would have been rather interesting had instead the Congress President promised better price support for farmers unveiling the source of Governmental income or revenue to pay from.
Attacking the Government very “liberally” by Congress and other like minded opposition parties on the two major economic reforms , viz the demonetization and the GST, has proved not only motivated but has been debunked by the actual data of growth and other economic achievements. In fact, the year of demonetisation registered a GDP growth of 8.2% while it slightly climbed down to 7.2% in 2017-18. Hence, the view that demonetisation slowed down economic growth during and as an aftermath of demonetisation has been proved utterly wrong.
Anyway, looking to the major decisions taken and proposals envisaged in the Budget 2019 have in concrete ways deflated the promise of MIG as Rs. 6000 per annum would be deposited in the account of every marginal farmer holding 2 hectares of land under PM Kissan Samman Nidhi Scheme. Not only this, Finance Minister Arun Jaitley has assured the farming community to have the amount increased to by Rs.500 a month or in total Rs.12000 instead of Rs. 6000, in the very near future. Mazdoors, Fishermen, those engaged in animal husbandry, Anganwadi workers, are all going to be benefitted in one way or the other forming the base of our society otherwise needing special treatment. Unemployment is really a problem but an air of mistrust and deception is spread as if like unfortunate “Atma Hatyaeen of Kissan ” , problems like unemployment too were born only under the present dispensation . In the Budget of 2019-20 , it has been revealed by the FM in the Parliament that the government registered coverage of employees under EPFO by 2 crores during the last four years . Not only this, EPFO , NPS data show more than 21 lac formal jobs were added in just last six months which bolsters Government’s credentials on job creation.
However, equally important is what stand is taken by the Congress party on various avoidable but sensitive issues like the recent incident in West Bengal where the elected Government itself violated the propriety of federalism and tried to hoodwink the process of investigations in respect of an alleged chit fund scam of hundreds of crores of Rupees where the premier investigation agency, the CBI’s officials were not only prevented to do their duty but arrested as well. Should corruption and loot of public money be legalised?
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