Col J P Singh, Retd
Pak Premier’s recent statement that ‘Kashmir is biggest threat to the world peace’ is highly provocative. Why Kashmir again and again? This comes following President Zardari and Karzai’s meeting with UK Premier. Mr. Cameroon must have directed them to take effective control of terrorism infested Afg-Pak region, the epicenter of world terrorism. Since the world focus is presently on Afg-Pak region and Pakistan as failed state, Pak PM’s pointing at Kashmir as threat to the world peace is undoubtedly a Sino-Pak conspiracy to shift the focus from his door steps to neighbor’s courtyard. Wise move after all, after the Indian strong protests for beheading soldiers at Mendhar and for handing over operational control of strategic Gwadar Port to China. Sino-Pak tie up poses a serious threat to the sub-continent and hence a serious concern for India. After Prime Minister’s warning of ‘business not as usual’ and Defence Minister’s ‘great caution and wait and watch’ for Pakistan,the war of words has commenced.
Western world considers Iran, North Korea, Pakistan and Afghanistan as axis of evil. America and Israel are corroborating action against Iran. Iran continues defying warnings. Civil war in Syria is turning a flash point for pan world confrontation. America is vehemently opposing North Korean nuclear proliferation which China is abetting. France has entered Male and Nigeria to contain Islamic fundamentalism. China has directed its army to get ready to fight and win a war in Pacific. Will the 3rd World War be fought over Kashmir, Pacific Islands or Iran? All the three possibilities are potential volcano; ready to erupt. Clouds of another world war are building up over the horizon. It is better that the nation is confronted with the harsh realities rather than let it live in delusion and thus suffer humiliation in the coming days. Some one has to bell the cat. Security experts from J&K should unravel the dangers.
WW II ended in 1945. Thereafter China invaded Tibet in 1950, defeated its army and declared her sovereignty over it. On17 Nov 1950, Sardar Patel wrote this to Pt Nehru, “Chinese govt has tried to delude us by profession of peaceful intentions. Even though we regard ourselves as the friends of China, the Chinese do not regard us as their friends. We have to consider what faces us today as a result of disappearance of Tibet and expansion of China almost upto our gates. Throughout our history we have seldom worried about our North East frontiers. Thus, for the first time, India has to concentrate on two fronts simultaneously”. China built a road form Xinjiang to Western Tibet through Aksai Chin, proving Patel right. Thereafter Pakistan ceded part of POK to China adding a new dimension to border dispute between the two nations.
India was partitioned in 1947. Soon after its birth, Pakistan invaded Jammu and Kashmir. It has not yet vacated illegally occupied areas. Thereafter three wars have taken place over Kashmir. Pakistan continues projecting Kashmir as threat to peace and stability in the sub-continent; now called it danger to the world peace. Recently Pakistan has handed over its Gwadar Port to China adding a new dimension to Indian security. China is constructing four Dams on Brahmaputra River which will affect water supply to India and Bangladesh, effecting ecology and environment. When the Western World is undergoing economic slow down, China is flexing its economic and military muscle relentlessly.
Sino – Indian border dispute lingers on despite 1962 war. China has not diluted its claim over Arunachal Pradesh. Kashmir is a disputed flash point in the sub continent despite four Indo – Pak wars. The next war over Kashmir / Arunachal, forgetting Iran or Pacific at the moment, if it happens, will be last and decisive. Indian leadership can’t close its eyes over the dangers any more and feel secure after Defence Minister’s caution. All defence acquisitions due this fiscal have been deferred despite Gen VK Singh’s warning. Finance Minster has categorically stated that country’s security is connected to economic growth which remains his over riding priority. Will the outcome be in India’s favour? I think NOT; presumptuous though, because it is a subject matter of urgent national debate. I wish I prove wrong.
Gwadar Port is situated at the apex of Arabian Sea and mouth of Persian Gulf which is very strategic location being closer to the ‘Strait of Hormuz, a key global oil supply route for India. Till nineties Pakistan controlled all the routes from Xinjiang and Central Asian Republics into the Indian sub-continent. Through Karakoram Highway and Gwadar Port, Beijing has got direct and shortest access to Gulf, Central Asia and Africa. Besides Gwadar, China has developed her Naval bases in other Indian Ocean littoral states. Srilanka and Bangladesh have asked China to make new ports on their coast. China is making inroads into this region vigorously. Encirclement of India is nearly complete.
Tension between India and China continue over the status of Arunachal Pradesh in the East and Aksai Chin in the West. China claims Arunachal in the same manner as it is asserting claim over Japanese controlled Sankaku Islands. When India talks of Aksai Chin, a plateau in Ladakh, which was part of Princely State of Jammu and Kashmir, China says this area was part of their Xinjiang Province. In the East, China refuses to recognize McMahon Line which formed boundary between Tibet and Assam in erstwhile British India. It may be recalled that McMahon Line was accepted as the boundary between India and Tibet in 1914 Shimla Conference when Tibet was an independent nation.
Xi Jinping is the ‘Chairman of China’s Central Military Commission’ and new General Secretary. He has embarked upon ‘Great Revival of Chinese Nation’ on the strength of ‘surging economy and strong military’. He has directed PLA to be ‘Battle Ready and Prepare to Win. He seems to be itching for a show down over Sankaku Islands, which may even be a ruse. The real target may be Arunachal and Kashmir. India may be surprised again.
I visualize Sino-Pak abetted great threat to Kashmir in 2016 – 17 emanating from Afghan – Pak Taliban. I feel India will be caught dozing again, as happened five times between 1947 and 1999, because it is neither ready to face the impending danger, nor is willing to look beyond political power and vote bank politics. Moreover India is going through difficult days due to economic slow down while China is surging ahead. To counter Pak rhetoric, India should raise issues of Baluchistan, POK and Northern Areas and start direct dialogue with their leaders. Another break up of Pakistan and POK as buffer State is an option worth considering.
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