Lt. Gen Syed Ata Hasnain
India has repeated the surgical strike but this time with a difference. Instead of a shallow surface strike across the LoC by the Army it has chosen to calibrate higher by many notches with an air strike deep across PoK into Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. 12 Mirage 2000 aircraft of the Indian Air Force (IAF) flew a reported 17 minutes only, to deliver their payload of munitions comprising one thousand pound bombs on to the identified Jaish e Mohammad (JeM) terrorist training and holding facility at Balakote. Damage assessment is still underway. It will be verifiable due to a plethora of international agencies who make it their business to do such assessment based upon satellite imagery. The timing for the strike was appropriate, at 3.30 AM and the swoop through PoK made the approach short with minimal dwell time in adversary held territory. Pakistan’s Director General, Inter Service Public Relations (ISPR) was quick to tweet that Pakistan scrambled the PAF response and forced the IAF aircraft to beat a hasty retreat by dropping their munitions at random and quite harmlessly. This response was expected from the ISPR, whose job it is play Pakistan’s psychological campaign. However, the impact of the strike is reported by unconfirmed sources to have been very effective. However, the fact that 12 IAF aircraft beat Pakistani radar and air defence to penetrate deep inside its territory should be an effective strategic message not only to the Pakistani leadership but also to the international community; a message of Indian capability, political will and intent.
Why have I chosen to certify the choice made from the spectrum of options, as the most appropriate? Firstly, this option chose to target the terrorist infrastructure and nothing else keeping the moral ascendancy of India intact. That ensures the traction achieved in pursuing the diplomatic campaign is in no way diminished. Much has been achieved diplomatically in the UN and other domains and the campaign can just carry on with India not losing the initiative. For measure, Mrs Sushma Swaraj can yet proceed to the OIC conference on 1-2Mar at Abu Dhabi without a second thought. Any attempt to target Pakistan military facilities would to my mind not have given us the dividend accruing currently.
Secondly, by terming it very appropriately as a pre-emptive non military strike the focus is on the message to the international community. That is smart thinking and keeping the Foreign Secretary’s brief to the media short and cryptic adds even more effect.
Thirdly, it leaves Pakistan in a dilemma. It is already on the mat diplomatically, notwithstanding the strategic advantage which it is gaining from the US withdrawal from Afghanistan. Prime Minister Imran Khan’s rather immature message that Pakistan would not think of military response if India decided to strike, it would actually respond strongly has now put him in a spot. His ministers made it worse by echoing his message even more passionately. The options for Pakistan are very limited. There is no terror infrastructure in India that it can target in response, or a tit for tat. If it chooses to target Indian military facilities or civilian infrastructure the moral angle will go completely against it and internationally its already low image will sink even lower. It may choose to strike across the LoC at one of our patrols as in the past and derive relatively lower gain from it. The Pakistan government and the Army are going to be under intense pressure hereafter until an appropriate response is decided and the international community isn’t batting for it. The fact that Pakistan’s economy is emasculated gives it even lesser options in the military domain.
Yet, this is not celebration time. A single air strike, however effective is not for purpose of deterrence, its for strategic messaging. Its not going to out an end to Pakistan’s wayward ways. There may be a temporary halt while it re-examines its options but more likely knee jerk reactions at tactical level will take place.
For India it will be prudent not to be jingoistic about this achievement. Its a fine action achieved with due care in selecting the option and appropriate calibration. The government must remain mindful that the end of the game has not been reached. More will probably come and we need to be prepared for that, in all spheres particularly in attempts to divide society and target India’s social cohesion.
In agreement with swarajya.com
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