Putting Developments in Kashmir in perspective

Syed Ata Hasnain
It is not easy to make sense of the widely different developments in Kashmir over the last few days as linked to events over this season. Through 2019 analysts have been ascribing the low footprint of violence, infiltration and recruitment to the tactical pause by Pakistan in view of the FATF strictures and the IMF loan which was in the making, as also the general fatigue in the Kashmiri public. The J&K Governor till a few days ago was saying all is well with the security of the state. Suddenly 10,000 armed policemen are inducted into Kashmir and subsequently 25,000 more all over the state. Rumours abound that Article 35A the Presidential Order on citizenship rights in J&K is about to be abrogated by the Central Government and there is apprehension of breakdown of law and order akin to situations in 2008-10 and 2016. Leaked police memos speak of necessity for the people to stock up supplies for four months. In the last four or five days there are incidents on the LoC only in Kashmir and not in Jammu sector. Firing across the LoC, including use of artillery and mortars, again in the Kashmir segment has been taking place over the last few days; a phenomenon not seen for many years. All of a sudden the Amarnath Yatra has been curtailed and called off with advisory to pilgrims to not stay too long in the Valley, something not done even when it was targeted by terrorists in 2000 or in 2017. The press conference of the security forces reveals that IEDs, sniper rifles and caches of weapons and ammunition have been found on the routes of the Amarnath Yatra both the Pahalgam and Baltal side.
Is something big happening in J&K which the Government wishes to keep classified? It has the right to do so where security is concerned. 15 Aug is usually considered an inappropriate time for any initiatives which can have a backlash; the Government would be thinking of doing whatever it is planning with considerable forethought, if at all something is on the cards. In the absence of any further indicators by the government it is best to assume an alternative opinion about all that is happening. It is likely that intelligence sources have stumbled on to something reasonably dangerous in terms of Pakistani strategy and intent. The quantum of weapons and IEDs does not indicate levels of threat of very great magnitude but recovered ordnance could be just a percentage of what may exist on ground and in the hands of terrorists. Hence, the apprehension. The Yatra is an iconic event and bears potential of fair contribution to communal disharmony in the hinterland should there be mass casualties among its pilgrims through targeting by terrorists. Lastly additional police strength is required to cater to filling some of the voids created by re-deployment for the Yatra from within the deployed resources in the Valley. The Yatra routes extend right up to Jammu and hence the need for security resources is always felt. The large quantum is of course a little baffling.
It is good that the security forces conducted a press conference in the light of so many rumours which were floating. A level of transparency was achieved. Yet I would remain apprehensive about the situation until 15 Aug and the commanders on ground must continue to invoke confidence in the people through greater interaction with the media. Lastly, the Government will do what is necessary but when national security issues are involved I would be the happiest to see deliberate efforts to create political consensus to carry the entire political community along. No Indian should be happy to see mainstream political parties of Kashmir pulling away from the Indian narrative and combining their weight towards resistance. That is clearly dangerous and not in the national interest.
There will obviously much more happening in the next few days. The UN General Assembly session starts only on 17 Sep 2019 so Pakistan’s actions are clearly not in sync for that date and beyond. The one thing that all security forces and agencies will need to concentrate upon is IEDs; ten attempts to use these have been made over the years so far, as per the Corps Commander and obviously are the clear and persistent danger. Road domination is the weakest aspect of the forces in Kashmir because it is a tiresome operation needing much patience. However, this is the time when the leadership must be out with the troops clearly exhorting them to ensure that duties are done as per norms and short cuts do not become order of the day.
We will comment and analyze on bigger things if they occur in due course. Speculation and rumour mongering at this stage is not going to help national security in any way.
By agreement with Swarajya.com
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