Harsha Kakar
The raising of the bills concerning J and K in the parliament by the home minister, Amit Shah, though not completely unexpected took the country by storm. While removal of Article 370 was partially expected, the rest took almost all by surprise. There were talks of trifurcation, however no one expected the state to be converted into two separate Union Territories (UT).
The centre acted within legal boundaries and has stated as precedents similar such actions by earlier Governments. It has also acted within its powers. Therefore, it is unlikely to face any legal hurdles in the future. It also implies that this decision was not hurried but had been in the pipeline for some time, during which the Government explored multiple options. The Government also detailed its ministers to interact with multiple political parties to ensure that the legislation would clear the hurdle of the Rajya Sabha, where it lacks a majority.
It was a move which in one step would change the character of the state, bring forth development and secure the lives of future generations. Though many would find reasons for objections and may even approach the courts, the move itself is a game changer. It also has a major challenge for the Government as the Kashmir individual would ask, ‘you have taken decisions about me, concerning my future and without consulting me. Is this correct?’ It would need to correctly convey its intentions and remove misgivings and floating rumours.
By keeping Jammu and Kashmir as one entity and bifurcating Ladakh has been an exceptional move. Many expected Kashmir to also become a UT. This would have been disastrous as it would have created a UT distinct in religion and would have in no time played into the hands of Pak. By keeping Jammu and Kashmir as one UT, it has maintained the character of the region.For the international audience, only the state has become two UTs, without mergers into other states.
Having both UTs has ensured that continuance of existing articles has no legitimate grounds. With the bifurcation of Ladakh a delimitation exercise would have to be done. This has already been announced. With it, there is a possibility that the strangle hold of the valley on the UT Government would end and it would lead to a fair representation.
Article 370 was the stumbling block to not only development but also created a state within a state. While it would have had value when it was invoked, it could not have continued for seven decades. Article 35A is in court, not 370, hence abrogation of 370 implies that 35A, which was discriminatory to sections of its own population and women, is now null and void.
For valley based political parties, claiming that this would change demography is projecting post truths. Even in the present circumstances, residents of the state settled in Jammu or Ladakh are permitted to purchase property in the valley. In the last few decades, the only population movement has been from the valley outwards, rather than into the valley. Hence, the same would continue. There would be no change in demography. Procurement of land would only be for enhancing development, which would benefit the public.
Being a UT and under a Lt Governor, there is likely to be curtailment of powers between the legislature and the elected representatives. It is likely that securitywould become a subject under the Lt Governor or the centre, rather than with the elected Government, especially as the state remains a border state and tensions with Pak would continue. This would benefit security forces battling Pak supported militancy.
This decision has had valley political parties claiming backstabbing by the Government. They have always stated that the only link which J and K has with the country is Article 370. They have been feeding the residents of the valley with the belief that any change in the character of the Articles would damage their future, whereas the reality is different.
Thus, for the centre it becomes a challenge to convey its true intentions to the residents, win their confidence and build in them the belief that it would in the long term benefit them. To prove this point, the centre should force its own organizations to open industries and training institutes in the valley.
The Prime Minister, aware of this shortcoming has decided to address the nation on this subject on Wednesday, giving enough time for the discussion to settle. He must aim to concentrate his talk to the youth of Kashmir and convince them of the sincerity of the government, as they are our brethren. He must break the mould being cast by valley political parties and Pak’s false propaganda.
Pakistan has been hard hit and their leadership appears lost. In desperation they announced their intentions to approach the US, UN and the OIC. They fail to realize that India is a sovereign nation and has the right to carry out changes to its constitution. No country or organization can dictate to India as to what it can or will do. Neither is India dependent on any country, where decision making will need an approval. There can be no resolution passed in any body which can counter Indian Government decisions.
The only action that Pak can take is to rake the issue for the sake of doing so, divert the attention of its population from its internal financial and inflation crises and build nationalism as Kashmir is a binding force within the country. It can also add to India’s internal security problems by spreading fake news through social media to enhance anger within the valley. There is also likely to be a spurt in LoC actions.
With curfew imposed, Kashmir remains quiet and stable. Security problems would emerge in the next few days once restrictions on assembly of personnel lifts. It would be more pronounced around Eid, when there would be mass gathering for celebrations and addresses by Imams in Mosques could stir up violence. It is with this intention that the police collected all details of Mosques in the state.
In the overall context, the planning and execution of the actions by the Government was flawless. However, challenges would now commence. It must win the hearts and mind of the population, remove fears and ensure that it does not enhance security problems. Simultaneously, it must ensure security along the borders so that Pak does not attempt any misadventures. If it succeeds in this, then it has won the battle.
The author is Major General (Retd)
feedbackexcelsior@gmail.com
Follow our WhatsApp channel