Dr. Sudershan Kumar
Addressing to Donald Trump’s one of the key presidential election plank of ending forever wars” of America, a pact of peace deal was signed with Taliban on 29th February,2020 in Doha, a city in Qatar. Facilitating this deal were prior nine rounds of discussion between U.S representatives and Taliban with Pakistan’s imperative role in it.
After fighting for nearly eighteen years in Afghanistan, United State’s military strategists,policy planners acknowledged the futility of this ongoing war which can mainly be attributed to the inhospitable and not so congenial terrain which is more suited for guerilla war fare.
They were more or less convinced that Pakistan will always do enough to prevent Americans from achieving their goal in the region,which has immense geostrategic importance.
Moreover, if some reports are to be believed, this longest war has already cost the Americans tremendously to the extent of around 2.4 trillion US $ with nearly 2000 American soldiers killed in action with many more sustaining fatal injuries. Subsequently, against the backdrop of the above circumstances, the Trump administration was looking towards, for some face saving before extricating its troops from Afghanistan.
This is in contrast to some of president’s previous comments where he did mention that US with its might could have won the war in a week’s time causing heavy destruction in Afghanistan ,but instead it chose a path of peace in the form of peace deal with Taliban groups for welfare of Afghan people.
But on analysing the dynamics of South Asia ,one can conclude that the Trump administration is wrong in both ways . Neither could he have won this war with his extensive might nor will he be able to end this war by signing peace deal with Taliban that too at the behest of Pakistan, whose credentials have always been dubious .But if one looks into the clauses of deal its seems there is a tactical retreat and total surrender by Americans to Taliban .As per deal US has agreed to withdraw its troops , advisers and contractors within fourteen months.
US will also seek security councils endorsement and push for removal of all sanctions against Taliban. US will also impress upon Afghanistan Government to release nearly five thousand Taliban prisoners languishing in jails .In return Taliban has pledged to breakup its alliance with Al- Qaeda .
Taliban has also agreed for permanent ceasefire and participation in intra Afghan talks and in Afghanistan Government. But very interestingly the deal is silent on women rights who have suffered the maximum during Taliban rule from the year 1996 to 2001 in Afghanistan. It is an established fact that Taliban describes itself as the Islamic Emirates of Afghanistan and believes in ruling Afghanistan under strict Sharia Law.
Furthermore various terrorist out fits have attributed this peace deal to the moral victory of all jihadis against world’s lone superpower. They further stated that those ,who were in quest of blood of jihadis have been brought to knees for discussion on the table. Also signing a deal with one faction leaving the others ,who are equal stake holders may be a short term gain but in the long run may not yield desired results.
Moreover Taliban leaders have not dismantled their hideouts in Pakistan. As a result they may not stick to the deal even before American forces leave Afghanistan.Recent attack on Sikh Gurudwara in Kabul by Islamic State Khorasan resulting into the killings of 27 Sikh worshipers and injuring many is the glaring example of presence of other terror out fits in the region. Taliban is a Sunni Islamic fundamental political and militant organization,which is currently engaged in insurgency/ jihad against the present Afghanistan government with active support from Pakistan’s soil.
The Taliban ideology is based on combining an innovative form of sharia Islamic law ,which is based on a combination of Deobandi Fundamentalism,militant Islamization and Salafi jihadism of Osma bin Laden with Pashtun social and cultural norms known as Pashtunwali.
Therefore mostly Taliban fighters are Pashtuns .They get a constant support from Pakistan. Therefore the war cannot be ended by signing a deal at the behest of Pakistan at Doha as history reverberates similar outcomes like in 1988 when the Geneva accords were signed.
But after Soviet withdrawl from Afghanistan, it was pushed into anarchy, blood shed and destruction. This ultimately resulted into civil war between various fighting factions till Taliban were able to gain control and form Government in September 1996. Their strict sharia rule continued till NATO forces led by United State invaded Afghanistan to avenge 9/11 attacks on United States of America.
Hence the interest of Afghanistan’s non Pashtun population in the north central and north east,who fought against Taliban in 1990’s, women in Afghanistan who have suffered the most during the Taliban rule cannot be ignored for sustaining durable and lasting peace in Afghanistan.Also without the inclusion and empowerment of disillusioned disenfranchised youth of Afghanistan , a genuine political force, no lasting settlement will succeed.
Hence the withdrawl of American troops from Afghanistan at this critical junction when the Afghan government needs the most to counter terror attacks engineered by Taliban and other militant outfits will certainly push Afghanistan to anarchy. This would have long term implications not only in South Asia but will engulf the whole world.
Afghanistan ,because of its geopolitical location has its strategic significance since ages.Afghanistan is the 41ist largest country after Myanmar. It has an area around 2,45000sq miles.It is a land locked country with mountains and plains in the north and south west.It lies at intersection of Indian subcontinent (Pakistan) in the middle east Iran,Central Asia (Turkmenistan,Uzbekistan and Tajikistan) and China (the Wakhan corridor).
Therefore strong developed and peaceful Afghanistan will be an asset not only for South Asian region but will also be a gate way of land routes to middle east Europe and Africa. Hence to usher an era of prosperity and stability in Afghanistan the first and foremost requirement is peace and tranquility in Afghanistan.
This is possible only when countries sharing border with Afghanistan join hands with international community to wipe out terrorism from that country. To accomplish this challenging and a daunting task, countries like India,Pakistan, Iran, Russia, USA and China will have to play a constructive role.
But unfortunately certain nations plying to their own selfish agenda are playing the role of a spoiler. Therefore each nation has its own perception for handling the precarious situation in Afghanistan .India especially after American invasion has played a pivotal role in the overall development of Afghanistan.
This encompass the economic package, construction of parliament building, construction of Zaranj Delaram highway, project Salma dam providing 250,000 tons of wheat and many others.
Also it has provided training to service personnel, paramilitary staff and others. But ironically and simultaneously, India’s dependence on US security cover is full of vulnerability.
Moreover, Indian policy planers long knew that the US appetite for Afghan war would decline especially after the killing of Osma bin Laden and that is what exactly has happened.This has further placed India in a very precarious situation in the fast changing dynamics of south Asia.
The present scenario warrants India’s very aggressive and proactive role for establishing peace for sustenance in Afghanistan .It is also true that Pakistani army, its spy agency ISI and the deep state feel threatened with Indian involvement in Afghanistan. Therefore Pak.agencies will go all out to sabotage any Indian move.
On the other hand,from Pakistan’s perception, an altogether different scenario emanates as Pakistan links the on goings in Afghanistan with its security and stability especially when it shares a porous border along with the border dispute with Afghanistan right from the time of its independence. Moreover, a fear psychosis has engulfed Pakistan post its defeat at the hands of its giant neighbor India especially in 1971.
This fear and complexities with India get further accentuated as over the years India has grown and emerged as a super power. With a population of around 1.35 billion and and nominal growth GDP$ 2.94 trillion which is many times more than the economy of Pakistan (GDP-210 billion).
The international community also views India as a fast going economy recognized its software geniusness and also considers it as the hub for many innovative technologies in different fields, where as Pakistan is considered as a safe haven for various terrorist organizations, who operate in Afghanistan ,Iran, Bangladesh and India.
They also view Pakistan as a failed state plagued with cancer of radicalization, fundamentalism and fanaticism. Hence Pakistani army, its spy agency ISI, deep state and many Pakistanis feel threatened with a massive neighbourhood existing along their border.Therefore, unstability, disturbance with jihadi movement and weak Government in Afghanistan gives them the solace.
Moreover, China has also an economic interest so it is using Pakistan for full filling its ambitious project of One Belt One Road. Also America and Russia has both strategic and security interest in mind especially when the scenario in south Asia is changing rapidly.
All these factors have deep implications on Afghanistan and are closely knitted. Therefore the author is of view that peace deal between US and Taliban may bring peace to some extent in Afghanistan but it depends on the mode of its implementation.At each stage Taliban will try to dictate terms.
One should also ensure that Taliban does not back out from its commitments made while signing the deal.More over views of other stake holders including women should also be given weightage.This deal should be endorsed by all the five permanent members of United Nation Security Council.
If it is not done the fate of Afghanistan is left to Taliban only, than after some time Afghanistan will again emerge as breeding ground for jihadis. As a result the terror activities around the region will increase many fold. This will not only be detrimental for the plains of Indian sub continent but the spark emerging out of the jihadis actions will engulf the whole world.
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