Tarun Upadhyay
JAMMU, July 6: As China starts moving back its troops on the Line of Actual Control (LAC) in the PP 14 in Galwan valley and India responding in equal measure, the bloody clash in this area has altered the relations between two as June 15 incident is now viewed as a “watershed” moment.
“The death of 20 Indian soldiers in India-China border altercation is unprecedented . Lot many things will change. It is new ‘watershed’ moment. It’s outcome of the fact we (India) had a very cyclical relation in the last 10-yr since 2009-10 when China became second largest economy of the world and started behaving like a major power,” said Dr Avinash Godbole, Assistant Professor Jindal Global University, in an interview with Excelsior News on video call.
Twenty Indian soldiers were martyred and an unspecified number of Chinese soldiers were killed in the faceoff at Galwan on June 15. Since then military level talks have been continuing after which China on July 5 started moving back troops. It is seen as major sign of China toning down its hard posturing .
However, in Pangong Tso, including the area between Finger 4 and Finger 8 where the Chinese have ramped up their presence since May, the de-escalation process is yet to be ascertained.
Godbole, who has written extensively on China, says the Galwan incident would be new paradigm, the earlier one being 2003 when then PM late AB Vajpayee visited China and before that was Rajiv Gandhi’s visit to Beijing. These two visits redefined India-China relations.
As India has taken serious view of this incident, Godbole says India would be forced to rethink on terms of engagement with China.
“India has lost patience in dealing with China in thinking that economic relations will change the strategic balance. But that has not happened. We will be expanding our relations with other like minded countries,” said Godbole.
The first major sign of change in relation came when India decided to ban 59 Chinese Apps which a union minister termed as “digital strike.” PM Narendra Modi in a surprise visit to Ladakh on July 4 sent out a strong message to China by stating that era of expansionism is over.
Said, Godbole: “Message from India is clear, you can’t expand economic engagements while China violates trust based process painstakingly developed over years. We can’t give China economic engagement when its expansionism is hurting us. Though, it will cost us too.”
There has been lot many debates to ascertain the reason why China has not made public list of fatalities unlike India. According to reports fatality figures on Chinese side was about 35.
Dr Avinash says there is reason for as it is for the first time that China has suffered loss of soldiers in border incident and they are toning down the incident deliberately.
“China first of all doesn’t’ release the list of fatalities. Secondly, if they do release the numbers then domestic public pressure would be on the CCP and the Government to take more hardened position, if the number is higher than India. It would affect future negotiations,” said Godbole.
Godbole, who has also worked at IDSA, says one of the reasons PM Modi did not call China by name during his Ladakh, but sending out strong message, is that India understand that while strong posturing should continue it shouldn’t hamper negations.
“Naming and shaming is not going to work with China. Negotiations have to be on reasonable arguments and it will work for both countries,” said Godbole.
The image of China has been severely hit by Coronavirus and also with the Galwan incident. United States and other major nations have called on Chinese to excercise restrain while being supportive of India. There is growing concern for new international relation in the context of China’s hegemonic posturing.
“China has to understand it can’t destroy rule based international order. Infact, India is open for Chinese role in this rule based framework. But the new hegemony position China is taking is dangerous and that is the reason the idea of Asian century is not working,” said Godbole.
Follow our WhatsApp channel