Brij Bhardwaj
The poll for Assembly in Maharashtra is unique not only because it is the second largest state in India after U.P. in term of the number of members it elects to the Lok Sabha, which decides who rules the Center, but also because it is the last State Assembly poll to be held in 2024 and will decide how the ruling party is faring against the opposition parties, as both sides have formed alliances to fight this election.
The two major parties, the BJP and the Congress are heading the alliances. In the 288 member Assembly, the BJP is contesting 148 seats, while the Congress is contesting 102. They will face each other in a contest for 78 Assembly constituencies. How the two perform will decide to some extent the outcome of the Assembly poll. In the election for the Lok Sabha, the Congress scored better, but the same may not be the case in Assembly polls, as shown in the Haryana Assembly elections.
This will be followed by the performance of the two factions of Shiv Sena. While Udhav Thakrey’s faction is fighting 96 seats, Eknath Shinde’s Shiv Sena will be contesting 80. The main fight between the BJP and the Congress will be in the Vidarbha region, while in Western Maharashtra the fight will be between the two factions of the NCP. It will essentially be a fight between different members of the Pawar family, led by the old war horse Sharad Pawar and his nephew Ajit Pawar, in the Sugar Belt.
In Mumbai, the two factions of Shiv Sena will lead the fight. While Thakrey’s faction is backed by its cadre, Shinde’s faction has the backing of industrial houses. Shinde’s faction performed well in the polls for the Lok Sabha but it is to be seen if it is able to repeat this in the Assembly poll as well. Another deciding point will be the role of rebel candidates. The BJP and Congress are having maximum problems on this account. The top leaders of both parties are trying hard to persuade the rebels to withdraw.
There are also rumours going around that at present two alliances are intact, but things may change after the outcome of the poll. The BJP campaign has no picture or mention of Chief Minister Shinde. On the other hand, Sharad Pawar is keen that no Chief Minister face should be declared by them. The Shiv Sena faction wants Udhav, who enjoys a lot of goodwill, to be declared as the Chief Minister face. They are negotiating with the Congress Party.
So knowing the past history of Maharashtra, one wonders if the current alliance will hold or a new one will emerge after the poll. But two groups have their respective followings. NDA is backed by high castes, Marathas, farmers, and industrial houses, and the opposition is backed by the poor, minorities, and Dalits. The two Shiv Senas are in direct contest on seats while the NCP factions fight for 35 seats. The outcome of the poll will decide which faction has the upper hand, so there is a lot of excitement ahead, both before and after the poll in Maharashtra.
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