Nantoo Banerjee
If political alliance is not only about a combination of numbers but also their traits, the next Lok Sabha may witness the emergence of a new front led by regional powers that may choose to stay together to provide greater and more meaningful autonomy to states for economic development and social justice and redefine the country’s federal structure. As top regional political satraps are engaged in pre-poll permutations and combinations, the possibility of emergence of a new alternative to the two belligerent national parties – Congress and Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) – as a new ruling political front at the Centre despite sharp differences among some of the constituents at local or state levels.
If the recent pre-poll surveys and claims of individual strength made by some of the large regional parties are to be gone by, the possible ‘non-Congress, non-BJP’ front may muster a 170-plus number at its best or around 140 at its worst in the next Lok Sabha. In either situation, it may find even unlikely groups coming in aid of such a front to help it reach the magic figure of 272-plus. The size of the groupings in the basket and the individual local-level political idiosyncrasy may, instead of posing to be a bane, prove to be a boon of such an alliance because of a common desire or resolve of such a front to address their micro concerns at the national level. The past experience showed the effective coming together of even sworn political enemies at the state level on a national platform to support or oppose a national government. Even the present Congress-led minority government at the centre has been kept propped up for almost year or 20 per cent of its full tenure by some of the sworn local rivals SP, BSP, JD(U) and RJD after TMC and DMK, the original allies of UPA II, pulled out of the national government.
Proponents of the new combination, all seasoned politicians, suggest that while Ms Mamata Banerjee’s Trinamool Congress (TMC) and J Jayalalithaa’s All India Anna DMK (AIADMK) are near certain to win as many as 66 Lok Sabha seats together – TMC 36 and AIADMK 30 – the rest of the smaller groups are capable of combining as many as 170-plus seat in the 16th Lok Sabha. The expected group break-ups are on the lines of Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) 25, Samajwadi Party (SP) 20, Biju Janata Dal (BJD) 15, Jagan Mohan Reddy’s YSR Congress 13, Marxist Party (CPM) 12, Communist Party of India (CPI) 7 and others, including AGP and JD (S), 12.
It is true that some of these parties such as SP, BSP and BSR Congress are less reliable as alliance partners than others, but they are certain to fall in line in their own interest to prevent a minority BJP or Congress forming the next coalition government. Even at 200-plus, BJP may not find it easy to form a right combination to take charge of the next national government. Congress, which may at best produce 100 poll winners, stand little chance to lead a viable front this time with its old allies getting either badly emaciated or totally estranged. Only a miracle can ensure India’s grand old party a psychologically important tally of 150-plus seats in the next Lok Sabha.
Although no regional party or probable new post-poll front partners are directly engaged in talks with each other for such a possibility, the initiative has been wrested by two major left parties – CPI and CPM – and their veteran campaigners such as A B Bardhan, Sudhakar Reddy, Prakash Karat and Sitaram Yechury, who are independently in talks with several regional party satraps to forge a post-poll understanding to provide a viable alternative government. CPI veteran Bardhan is already engaged in such talks with leaders of AIADMK in Tamil Nadu, BJD in Orissa, JD (S) in Karnataka and Asom Gana Parishad in Assam. Regional parties in Bihar, Uttar Pradesh and Maharashtra too are being kept in the loop.
The position of Delhi’s Aam Aadmi Party (AAP), a distantly possible ally of the proposed front having secularism and federalism as its common meeting ground, is still riddled with its own contradictions as it is running the state government with the outside support of Congress, which it regards as the most corrupt political party, despite its otherwise sole political agenda of fighting corruption. Arvind Kejriwal’s AAP is certain a make an appearance in the next Lok Sabha for the first time and may claim even a double-digit number, mostly at the cost of Congress and BJP. It too can become an ally of the possible new front at the centre under a broader agreeable regional agenda, including the full statehood of Delhi with independent police powers. AAP’s support will further bolster the strength of the aspiring new political combination to provide the next government at the centre.
If pre-poll political arithmetic points at a highly fractured public mandate in the next Lok Sabha, BJP falling well short of the magic number and Congress becoming much smaller, a new ruling political front is not only possible, but looks as highly probable under a common agenda of strengthening secularism and federalism with the powers of the central government limited to defence, external affairs, finance and partly home, planning and commerce. It would like to see an end to the growing centre-state conflict for political reasons and bring about an era of healthy union-state co-operation and engagement. (IPA)
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