Dr Gaurav Mittal, Dr Safdar Ali
India shares its border with two hostile nuclear power nations, i.e. Pakistan and China both of whom have a deep strategic anti India alliance making a joint Pak-China attack on India a distinct possibility. Our policymakers and military are both aware of such a challenge.
Today when the whole world is busy fighting one of the worst pandemic in recent history, the Chinese are nibbling away at its neighbours’ territory. As the world questions the way China handled the Covid situation letting it spill over, they are risking being too predictable now in distracting the world through actions such as in Ladakh. Incidents like the one in Ladakh and Sikkim should not however be seen in isolation but rather as an overall pattern of increased Chinese assertiveness whether in South China Sea or in Hong Kong. It is surprising that not a word is coming from top echelons of either the Chinese Government or the military about the incident at Line of Actual Control. The unprecedented build up at multiple points looks more like a carefully thought tactical step towards a larger strategic goal that China will of course never admit to. To brush it off as just a local action by enthusiastic field commanders would be at our own peril. It does not seem to be fitting this narrative considering the heavy equipment and digging in of their soldiers in areas like the Galwan valley that were previously uncontested and both sides followed standard laid down protocols during patrols.
So what if, even in a highly unlikely scenario the present confrontation leads to a limited engagement with conventional platforms between the two of the biggest nuclear powered militaries i.e. India and China under a nuclear umbrella? Further, how will the situation pan out if China’s all-weather ally, Pakistan also decides to join the bandwagon in the event of a war, leading us to face a nightmarish two front war? Faced with this two front war situation, let’s look at what will be the major challenges for India and how can India overcome these.
Modern wars are fought not just on the actual battle field today but on multiple fronts be it Military, Diplomatic, Economic, Intelligence, Cyber Warfare and Space. Given the terrain it is highly probable that any conventional clash will consist primarily of air power. The Indian Air Force boasts of the formidable SU-30’s stationed in the Northeast. While currently Chinas People’s Liberation Army Air Force is operating the Chengdu J10 and the Chinese copy of the versatile Soviet SU 27’s, the Shenyang J-11 but these are no match for the Sukhoi. In the event of a clash China will surely bring out its big guns; it will consist of its own Sukhoi 30’s and the most advanced fighter plane in its arsenal in SU-35 which can surely be a formidable opponent for the IAF. PLAAF also has 5th generation capabilities in the form of J-20. IAF recently claimed to have detected the supposedly stealth J-20, when the Chinese were conducting an exercise in the TAR consisting the J-20. It will be interesting to see whether the Chinese will risk fielding their J20 which is still not combat proven, in the event of a limited aerial engagement.
Although outnumbered, the IAF may still hold its own in an aerial engagement because its inventory is well maintained. The MIG 21’s, Mirages and Mig 29’s have all been upgraded recently. But the situation may change if Pakistan also decides to join the bandwagon pushing us to a two front war. Although it is purely in the speculative domain, such a scenario will find India underprepared and hugely outnumbered.
Lets have a look at the Pakistan Air Force; its main strike fleet consists of mostly F16s in its two variants, the older more numerous F-16As and the modern F-16Cs. The latter with its Beyond Visual Range (BVR) capabilities may create some issue for the IAF bus as the recent post Balakot engagement showed it will not be anything the IAF cannot handle. PAF only has about 18-20 F-16Cs while the rest are all older F-16As. But surprisingly the real challenge for the IAF may not be an American platform but a Pakistani made platform itself in the form of JF-17 Thunders.
It is true that IAF has air superiority in fighter planes like the Sukhois in numbers but in two front war scenario, it will not matter as Sukhois will mostly be tied up in the eastern theatre against a superior enemy. It is true that any mission will not consist of just one type of fighter planes but IAF will mostly be flying the Tejas, MIG 21 Bisons and mirages against the two frontline fighter planes of the PAF’s F16-Cs and JF-17 Block IIIs. Only superior tactics and force multipliers like drones and AWACS and electronic warfare may prove to be the match winner in the end in the western sector.
In terms of numbers also IAF operational doctrine tells us that it requires at least 44 squadrons of fighter aircraft for deterrence in a two front war scenario. IAF currently has around 32 squadrons and dwindling as more and more of the older Migs retire from service. Coming of the Rafales may bolster the number a bit but technologically it will give India a quantum leap in capabilities and IAF may then be able to handle anything the PAF throws its way. With its superb avionics, network centric capabilities, battlefield awareness and one of the best BVR missiles in the form of Meteor in its arsenal, PAF will certainly fear its presence over the Indian skies.. The Indian AWACS combined with Rafales long range Meteors will deny Pakistan any room for manoeuvre in the western front. But Pakistan will most probably will use its precious air assets in a defensive role rather than risk losing them in attacks on Indian targets without any strategic gains. IAF may hold Pakistan at bay even without using its frontline fighter planes.
But the skies over eastern theatre will be evenly contested. Technologically IAF and PLAAF may be evenly matched platform for platform. The equation changes when we consider Chinese recent capabilities in cyberspace, electronic warfare and network centeredness not discounting the sheer numbers also. Apart from that China is only the 3rd country in the world having a viable 5th generation fighter programme after US and Russia and in fact is only the 2nd after the US to have actually inducted a 5th generation platform in its air arm. It will be interesting to see how these perform in a combat environment densely packed with radars, BVR missiles and SAM systems like the S 400.
If historical precedence is any cue, it appears the situation at the LAC may be sorted out diplomatically. But if it turns out into a limited engagement comprising air forces, the situation for India is not actually rosy in a two battle front scenario. But if it is only the PLAAF it will be evenly contested if it doesn’t drag on for long. And who knows our men and machines may even give the Chinese a bloody nose.
A quick sharp ground war may also be favourable for India rather than a prolonged attrition war before China can bring forward its full might of men and material to the front. The newly raised Mountain Strike Corps along with india’s specialised high mountain fighting regiment, the Ladakh Scouts will give us some initial advantage. Western front may see some action too but Pakistan will come into the picture only if it is sure of victory. It will rather use its resources in the proxy war in Kashmir.
In the naval front much has already been written and discussed about India’s geographical advantage in the Indian Ocean. Chinese are really aware of their dependence on the oil from Persian gulf, bulk of which passes through Indian ocean having various choke points like strait of Malacca where India Navy can really set the noose tight for the PLAN if push comes to shove. The One Belt One Road initiative of China is an attempt to offset its disadvantages at sea where it is surrounded by powerful navies of the so called Quad- the US, Japan, Australia and India. The recent incident in Ladakh also seems to be part of the same strategic thinking to bypass the potential restrictions Indian Navy may impose on China at sea and also ocean prevent India from coming too close to its arterial highways. India’s infrastructure build up seems to threaten the CPEC corridor passing through the Karakoram Highway. China wants to prevent that at any cost so that partly explains the unilateral change in status quo.
Diplomatically India seems on a firm footing. Two nuclear powered countries attacking one country simultaneously will turn the world opinion against them. Already Globally Pakistan is considered a terror state and China is considered a big bully which is trying to engulf its neighbours .In such a scenario, India can expect the global powers USA ,UK and France side with India and may economically or with Arms come to the Aid of India. So on one end considering the volatility of the situation where three nuclear armed powers are involved they may try for early resolution of dispute but in any case world opinion meanwhile will be on our side. The other Global power Russia may not directly support either of the sides considering US support to India but also minding the fact that India is its biggest Defence partner, So Russia it seems will remain between Pro India to Neutral.
However, the main strength of India will come from China’s Neighbours. Japan, Taiwan and host of nations with whom China has disputes in the South China Sea. These Nations will also see this as an opportunity to settle their scores with China. In a Nutshell, therefore we can Say that Diplomatically India will be at a huge advantage in this Two front War.
The major sore points for China are Tibet, Hong Kong, Taiwan and the Uighur Muslims in Xingiang province. The Indian intelligence agencies need to intensify these flash points in the event of a war. Particularly important will be the condition of Uighur Muslims in Xingiang where Muslims are sent to re-education/de-radicalisation centres. Benazir Bhutto once commented Pakistan is ruled by three As, ‘Army, Allah and America’. If somehow India can turn the attention of the hardliners in Taliban and the Pakistan towards the inhuman treatment of Muslims in China they may turn public opinion against their own Army and China. In fact with The harms of CPEC in form of losing autonomy in Pakistan there is a lot of anti China felling in Pakistan and India might want to exploit all these internal fault lines just as Pakistan has been doing in Kashmir.
India will have to deal with the cyber-attacks too from Pakistan and especially China. China has made giant strides in cyber warfare. To understand this we first need to understand that the primary concern of China is economic and it values its economy over everything else md right now China wants to sell its 5G technology all over the world and the acquisition is halted or stopped only for security concerns. In such a scenario, China won’t risk launching cyber-attacks on India which it may be capable of on a large scale .So there is definitely a threat in cyber sphere. Therefore we must be prepared to have defensive firewalls to protect our vital installations at least and strengthen our cyber capabilities in the long run.
The economy of China is much bigger than India. This is a major factor that will determine the outcome of the war. Not dwelling much on Pakistan whose economy struggling and is on life support with Aid from international institutions and Gulf nations. China is the second largest economy in the World just behind the US whereas India is much far behind China in GDP terms, but the good point about India is that it is a domestic demand driven economy whereas China is an export Driven economy with India as its major Market. In the scenario of War, with Indian Market surely closed for it and as seen in the diplomatic side, the major global power against China, it will suffer a lot more on economic front than India ,though it can sustain the economic losses for a longer period of time due to Huge size of its economy.
However as we will see later that war is unlikely to continue for a long time and India can survive it economically.
Keeping all these perspectives in mind, The twin front War will militarily be a huge challenge for India but can be surmounted if fought aggressively on all the fronts simultaneously.
(The authors are DC CGST Jammu and AC CGST Jammu)
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