Rekha Chowdhary
In the aftermath of the Punjab victory of the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP), there seems to be a sudden enthusiasm in Jammu and Kashmir, particularly in Jammu region to join this party. Recently a number of political leaders and activists, including legislators, one of these a former minster, members of DDCs and Panchayats and other leading social and political personalities made a big event of joining the party in Delhi. Although the AAP did not make a big deal out of such bulk joining of leaders – yet for local politics the event certainly holds some importance.
Shifting parties is not a new phenomenon in Jammu and Kashmir. In fact, this erstwhile state witnessed an accentuated process of leaders moving from one party to another in last four years (ever since the last elected government fell in July 2018). So much of movement has taken place from some parties to the others that parties like PDP came to face extreme existential crisis. It lost its upper crust including the founding members to parties like Apni Party and the People’s Conference (PC). While NC didn’t face as much crisis as the PDP, yet it also lost some of its members to these and other parties. Classic was the case of its Jammu based stalwarts like Devender Rana, its provincial President and Surjit Singh Slathia, a prominent NC face and a former minister from Jammu – who shifted to BJP.
As one can see, there is a clear direction in which the leaders have been moving. Going by their assessment of the performance of the respective parties in the coming elections, leaders choose the parties which they think have better prospects than the ones they are leaving. That explains the shift towards BJP in Jammu region. In Kashmir meanwhile, after the August 2019 structural changes, there was a general refrain about the traditional parties like NC and PDP having become irrelevant and therefore, all movement here was directed towards newly launched Apni Party. Later, the prospects of PC as the ‘Centre-friendly party’ were also seen to be quite good, hence many leaders were attracted towards it. Specific was the case of leaders like Muzaffar Hussain Beig and Nizamuddin Bhat who were seen as the pillars of the PDP, chose to shift to PC (Incidentally both claimed PC to be their original party before they became the members of the PDP)
In this scenario, the question arises – why the AAP? One can clearly see that it is the fallout of the Punjab elections where AAP fighting the traditional embedded and rooted parties like Shiromani Akali Dal and Congress, swept the polls and formed the government. As per the claims of the party, it is going to emerge as a major national party and would soon have its presence in more states, to begin with in Himachal Pradesh and Gujarat. All these claims of the AAP party make it a party with some potential and for those joining it, it seems to have prospects in Jammu and Kashmir too.
While those joining the AAP are from both the regions of Jammu and Kashmir, the buzz for AAP is much more louder in Jammu region. The larger number of AAP leaders who have recently joined the party, comes from this region – not only from Jammu plains but also from other parts of the region. In case of these Jammu based leaders looking for a party with better prospects, the option was always open to join the BJP. But if they are choosing the AAP, it is clear that they are looking for an alternative political space to the one occupied by the BJP. If one has to decode their choice in the context of the politics of Jammu region, one can see three broad underlying messages.
Of these, the first message relates to a perception that there is a potential political space for AAP, despite the dominance of BJP in the region. This political space is an alternative political space that is lying dormant at present but can be captured if there is a political party capable enough to mobilise the voters for that purpose. This political space, for the sake of convenience, can be called as the ‘Congress space’, mainly for the reason that before the BJP emerged as the dominant party of the region in 2014, the Congress had occupied the largest political space in the region. One doesn’t have to go as far as 1983 election (when it won 80% of the total seats in Jammu region) to show how Congress was the leading party of the region but even during the coalition era, it was Jammu’s major party to partner with a Kashmir-based party to form the government – as in 2002-2008 period and 2008-2014 period. In fact, its role as major Jammu-based coalition partners was taken so much for granted that it was believed that this party would be always there as alliance partner in the government to represent Jammu region irrespective of the fact as to whether the PDP or the NC represents Kashmir. Its a different matter that situation changed altogether in 2014 and like elsewhere in India, the Modi wave swept the region and instead of Congress, BJP became the dominant party of Jammu region – leaving no effective space for any other party including the Congress.
Related with the first message is the second one – the ‘Congress space’ is there but Congress itself is not capable of retrieving that space. As such there is no hope from the Congress. This hopelessness about Congress is not only a reflection of the decline of Congress at the national level but also of the local problems including the infighting and factionalism. One can see that there is a lack of clear direction in this party – particularly in the context of leadership. Apart from the contradictory signals coming from the local leaders, confusion is created by sudden burst of activities by leaders, as it happened few months back. At that time both the PCC president G.A. Mir and Ghulam Nabi Azad were active, giving some hope of revival of the party but such vibrancy as usual was followed by a long period of inactivity.
Following these two messages, the third message is very clear. Since there is a political space but Congress is incapacitated to recover it, there is a hope that AAP may be in a position to capture it. This expectation that AAP can capture this space is based on the assumption that its alternative developmental narrative bringing to the centre issues related to education, health, employment, corruption, electricity etc, would appeal to a large number of people.
But will AAP be able to achieve this? It is too early to make an assessment about the prospects of AAP since party has to expand itself and make an impact on the ground. Coming few months may be crucial in this situation. However, even while one can’t make a prediction about the prospects of the party, one can certainly make an assessment of its potential.
Being a new party can be advantageous in the sense that the party would not have any liability of past record and would not therefore be having any negative baggage like other parties. Starting from a clean state, it can effectively operate in the electoral arena. However, being a new party can also be a limiting factor, especially in the context of competition with a highly organised and election oriented party like BJP. Whether it is the organisational structure, the cadre or the campaigning strategy, taking on this party may not be very easy. It takes time for a party to take roots and even if one goes by the example of Punjab, one needs to be reminded that this party did not start afresh in 2022 Assembly election. Its history goes back to 2014 Parliamentary when it had fielded candidates in all the 13 Parliamentary constituencies and could register its victory in four. It contested the 2017 Assembly election and could win as many as 20 seats at that time. Even in the short duration of its history, it went through various electoral steps before it could sweep the Assembly in 2022. Hence, one should not expect the party to change the equations of politics of the region in one go. To begin with, if it succeeds, it may make its mark by winning few seats.
AAP has a plus point. Being a party oriented to development related issues, it is not trapped in a polarised or binary politics. Thus, it can extend its outreach beyond the regional and communal lines and have a wider outreach. But whether it can use this plus point to its advantage, will depend on the leadership and its mobilisation strategies. Most importantly, it would require a vision about the entirety of the state. Falling short of that vision, the AAP politics may also end up being trapped in one or the other kind of identity politics. In that situation, the party would lose the distinctiveness that it boasts of. Some political leaders and activists have chosen this party, it remains to be seen how do people respond to it.
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