Anil Anand
Whatever be the fate of Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) in Punjab and Goa Assembly elections, it is clear that the party has come on to stay on the political firmament of the country. The victory in the two states as the AAP supremo Arvind Kejriwal and his team is claiming, would certainly give a major fillip to the parry ahead of 2019 Lok Sabha elections but it has fair chance of staying in the reckoning if unable to form the governments.
Kejriwal would be on a new high if AAP emerges victorious in these states and certainly would work more vigorously to realise his dream of becoming Prime Minister. The manner in which the young party has made its presence felt in Punjab and Goa giving established political parties such as Congress and BJP a run for their money, it would be no mean achievement if it emerges a formidable opposition block though such a development would belie their expectations.
There is yet another round of elections due that include Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s home state of Gujarat and Himachal Pradesh, before the general elections. Not only would victories in the current polls would give a major push to Kejriwal’s future plans, the AAP would enter the next round on a high note and on course to becoming a national political party. These victories and even respectable losses would bring the partynearer to fulfilling the Election Commission of India’s requirements of a pan-India presence at least in more than half a dozen states.
After Delhi Assembly debacle at the hands of new kid on the block, AAP, and now threatening to shake their citadels in Punjab and Goa both Congress and BJP are shaky and looking for solutions as how to counter Kejriwal’s political doctrine and subsequent election strategies. The triangular contest in these two states, which had earlier witnessed mostly a direct Congress-BJP straight fight, has not only changed the electoral math in Punjab and Goa but its possible replication in other states is worrying not only these two national parties but also the influential regional outfits.
The success story of AAP and its leader Arvind Kejriwal is primarily based on offering and emerging as an alternative to the established players with a fresh whiff of air. It succeeded in Delhi as people were fed up with both Congress and BJP for their “misrule and corruption” at least this was the perception that AAP brigade was able to create in public mind. More importantly the party did not carry any baggage of history.
Despite none-too-impressive performance of the first-ever AAP government in Delhi city-state, its strategists have been able to carry the perception and accompanying success formula to the neighbouring Punjab and far-off Goa as well. A similar story is unfolding in Gujarat as after coming from Punjab-Goa electioneering Kejriwal straightway plunged himself into preparations for polls in that state and drew plans before he landed at a naturopathy hospital in Karnataka for treatment.
Having discarded many of his prominent fellow-travellers who authored the AAP formation, Kejriwal is travelling alone and has become the sole-selling agent of the party’s wares. The one strong similarity which he has with Modi-led BJP and Sonia Gandhi-led Congress is the personality based monolithic structure of the parties. Surprisingly the style of functioning of Kejriwal and his bitter political foe Modi are quite similar.
The governance model in Delhi is becoming more a liability than an asset for Kejriwal to showcase it in other states. However, a silver lining for him is that so strong is people’s quest for an alternative that they are ready to gloss over the AAP’s failures in Delhi. If the party is not voted to power in Punjab and Goa, it would be more because of local political factors and configurations rather than mis-governance in Delhi.
Credit should be given to Kejriwal and his strategists that they have not only been able to kindle new hope among the people across the country but also succeeded in keeping it alive. The underlying strategy behind open confrontation with the Centre Government and blaming it for all administrative failures of AAP dispensation in Delhi has a significant goal; do not let Delhi become a test case of good governance and so no unnecessary baggage to carry and no explanations to be offered.
Despite Kejriwal’s brave face and strong counter-offensives the going would not be that easy. After the outcome of Punjab and Goa Assembly elections, the real test for his self-proclaimed good governance model of Delhi would come in April-May elections to three Municipal Corporations of the Capital city.
Currently all three civic bodies are governed by BJP with Congress as the main opposition. During the last Assembly elections AAP had made a clean sweep in majority of the Municipal Corporation wards. During the subsequent bi-elections to 13 wards, fallen vacant by the resignation of councillors who had become MLAs, the party lost eight of these that sounded an alarm bell.
Most significantly Congress which had been totally decimated in Assembly elections won in five wards. The party is now fathoming its chances in the Corporation elections which if happens would be at the AAP’s cost.
The AAP’s victory or defeat could have a strong bearing on its chances in Delhi. In fact a defeat in Delhi, later on, would give enough ammunition to Kejriwal’s rival particularly Mr Modi to hit at him in Gujarat polls.
These probabilities apart Kejriwal is definitely giving sleepless nights to all his political rivals including regional parties. The context would be both Assembly elections and finally the 2019 Lok Sabha polls.
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