Amit Kushari(IAS.Retd)
The first major fall out of Narendra Modi’s promotion in the BJP was seen in eastern India — a political earthquake rocked the state of Bihar. The seventeen year old marriage between JDU and BJP came to an abrupt end and all the eleven BJP ministers of Bihar were sacked by Chief Minister Nitish Kumar with one stroke of the pen. The Muslims of Bihar who are seventeen percent of the population were over joyed and Shri Nitish Kumar became the Muslim’ hriday samrat’ (Muslim dilon ka badshah) overnight on the same pattern as Mulayam Singh Yadav in UP became Mullah Mulayam after winning the hearts of 21% Muslim population of UP. Mulayam Singh had forged an alliance between the Hindu Yadavs and the Muslims and this combination had been electorally a great success. Nitish Kumar also must be pondering over such an alliance in Bihar by clubbing the Hindu Kurmi votes with the 17% Muslim votes. In neighbouring Bengal also Chief Minister Mamata Didi is using similar tactics to keep the Muslim votes under her control. Bengal has a huge 26 % Muslim population and so Didi has to go out of her way to become the maharani of the Muslim hearts. Whenever she goes to any gathering where Muslims are present in good numbers, she quickly puts on the ‘Hijab’ and also makes a gesture which is like offering namaaz. In her speeches also she liberally uses phrases of Muslim etiquette like, ‘inshallah’, ‘mahshallah’, ‘alham dul illah’ and so on. The chief ministers of UP, Bihar and Bengal therefore have similar agendas and they could be the best of friends after the 2014 elections. They are already talking of a federal front of these regional satraps — independent of both Congress and BJP. The Chief Minister of Odisha, Patanaik, may also join this group for claiming power after 2014. The friendship of this group costs nothing for them because JDU, TMC, SP and BJD of Odisha have no political interests in other states and so no seat sharing would be required. However, these parties on their own can never come to power– unless they are supported by Congress from outside. If they accept Congress support and form a government they will become mere dolls at the mercy of the Congress. They will not be able to undo any wrong done by the UPA. They will not be able to bring to justice the scamsters of UPA .
If the people of India are happy with the present government they should vote for the UPA and if they are not, they should give a clear majority to the NDA, otherwise we will have a weak government for 2 or 3 years and may have another general election by 2016, 2017.
By projecting Narendra Modi as the Chairman of the campaign committee of the BJP , the BJP has taken a big gamble. Mr. Modi is widely perceived as a polarising factor and so it may be difficult for NDA to find allies unless this image is changed. However, if Mr. Modi can take the BJP tally to 170+ then allies may trickle in slowly because power attracts and nothing succeeds like success. However, if the BJP tally falls below 170, say 160 or 155, then NDA cannot come to power as allies will not be available. In such a situation BJP may have to reconsider their stand and project a more acceptable leader like Sushma Swaraj or Arun Jaitley, for roping in more friends. This can happen only after seeing the results of 2014.
(The author is former financial Commissioner J&K
Feedback to the author at 09748635185 or amitkus@hotmail.com)
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