Prof. M. K. Bhat
The drama unleashed after Karnataka election makes one to think and rethink about the possible way forward for 2019. It has raised questions about the futility of democracy by making people to witness the abuse of their vote. The people who vote as per manifesto of a political party have suddenly got irrelevant in the current scenario. The unethical post poll alliance of Congress and JDS not only betrayed people of their mandate but the show of strength seems short of life with Congress pointing towards no decision for support to JDS for five years. This reaffirms the popular belief that the present dispensation will be too busy with its internal issues rather than attending to the problems of general public.
The mandate no doubt was fractured but the voters never would have expected that the least preferred will be the king. The number of BJP legislators increased from 40 to 104 where as that of Congress decreased from 122 to 78 and JDS got 3 less from the previous score. The unification of two rivals after elections makes one to believe that 2019 will be Modi v/s rest. Blocking Modi and attaining power at any cost will not go well with the people of this country.
It may be pointed out very eloquently that if 2019 becomes Modi V/S rest then the benefit will definitely be reaped by BJP as there is no competent leader to oppose Modi at present. The victim card will be played by Modi to its fullest and questions like; whether it is a sin to talk about the sentiments of the majority will run in the skies and people would like to know if it is, then why people tried to project themselves as Janav Dhari in Gujarat? Why secularists (who certify secular credentials of other parties) could not change the fate of minorities in India in last sixty years of their rule? Has Modi reversed their achievements in last four years? Is Sab ka Sath Sab ka vikas a wrong agenda? Is divide and rule the only way out for healthy democracy? Is Modi’s humble background his lacuna for being the Prime Minister of India? What role Vatican plays in Indian elections by instigating Christians to vote against Modi? Is it secular? People by and large are at a loss to understand why Modi is being victimised? He was tried again and again in Gujarat for Gujarat riots (as if they were the only communal riots happened in India) .People not only supported him for 15 years as CM of the state but also made him a national leader. It has been proved many times that People understand things better than the motor mouthed intellectuals who bear no idea of the ground realities or want to hide them.
The mass huddling of legislators in hotels and farm houses tells about their freedom to express their opinion. No media house raised a question against the maltreatment of legislators. The scene was further aggravated by fake tapes, which clearly pointed to the dirty tricks department of Congress. The huddling of legislators conveys the inhuman approach of the party top brass and its lack of faith in its own legislators. It may be worthwhile to point out here that no Government can work effectively in an atmosphere of mistrust. The sugar coating of the strained relations between Congress and JDS is a nightmare and may vanish anytime.
The Governor was duly entitled to invite the biggest party to form the Government but providing a long period of 15 days was enough time for horse trading which Supreme Court logically reduced to 24 hours. BJP could have enjoyed the sympathy of public had the Governor not given them more than the required time to prove its majority. It got 15 days time from Governor against 7 days demanded by the party. This led to the acceptance of horse trading theory by public, as the credibility of our legislators is too low. If poaching of a few was a problem than buying 38 legislators with the assurance of power too cannot be termed as ethical. The surrender of congress to 38 members of JDs cannot be without a deal.
Generally the outcome of such opportunistic collations has been bad administrative decisions, delay in decisions, rampant corruption and public interests become things of least priority. The thing to its credit is that it laid to rest the much hue and cry about the credibility of election voting machines. They are termed as correct if decision comes in your favour otherwise they are manipulated by the winning party. Here the winning party was declared as poachers by media and one sided judgements were passed without due consideration to the facts.
The strong message this election has conveyed to BJP for 2019 is that it may have to increase its coalition partners. It is no doubt that BJP possesses a strong mass based leader in Narendra Modit but it should not be taken with overconfidence. Modi’s rating after 4 years in office still rests at 60 percent and there is no one to compete him at the national level. The incorporation of regional units will make the BJP base more firm especially in the states where it may have to face anti incumbency.
The biggest challenge for the opposition is to mitigate their internal differences; mere show of strength will be of a little use. The another challenge for the opposition is to keep the flock together and project a suitable leader as prime ministerial candidate. This candidate must have no stigma of corruption attached to him and may have to be assertive one. The projection of Rahul Gandhi by Congress will be an easy walkover to Modi. (others bear only regional identity and people know their credibility ) Rahul lacks the gumption to challenge Modi. The oratory skills of Modi are much better than Rahul. The RSS support makes an ample cadre of dedicated booth managers available to BJP while as it may be difficult for ground level workers of ideologically different parties to work together.
The image of parties coming together with different political ideologies is simply a marriage of convenience to grab power but voters are no fools. The corruption stigma attached with many such constituents cannot be washed away by Karnataka gimmickry. Hence Narendra Modi remains unchallenged candidate for 2019.
(The author is Director MAIMS (GGSIP University Delhi)
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