Amit Sharma
An earthquake is a wave vibration that travels through the earth’s surface. India has been classified into four seismic zones i.e. V, IV III, II based on the projected maximum earthquake strength. The most active of these is zone V, which includes all of Northeast India, the northernmost parts of Bihar, Uttarakhand, Himachal Pradesh, J&K, Gujarat, and the Andaman and Nicobar Islands. According to the Bureau of Indian Standard’s (BIS) most recent seismic zoning map, more than 65 percent of the nation is vulnerable to earthquakes of a Modified Mercalli Intensity Scale (MSK) VII or higher intensity.
Strong earthquakes with magnitudes greater than 8.0 on the Richter Scale are thought to be particularly dangerous throughout the Himalayan region, and four of these earthquakes have happened in a relatively short amount of time-roughly 50 years-in Shillong in 1897 (M 8.7), Kangra in 1905 (M.8.0), Bihar and Nepal in 1934 (M 8.3), and Assam and Tibet in 1950 (M 8.6).
There are two seismic zones in J&K i.e. zone V and IV. Most parts of the Kashmir Valley (11% of the area of the UT) covering the Districts of Srinagar, Ganderbal, Baramulla, Kupwara, Bandipora, Budgam, Anantnag, Pulwama, and that of Jammu covering area Doda, Ramban, Kishtwar come under Seismic Zone V, where around 50% of the population of the UT lives. Rest of the area including whole of Ladakh region and Jammu Division (90% of the total area of the both the UTs) are under the Seismic Zone IV. The earthquake hazard map of J&K and Ladakh has been shown in Figure 1.
The cause of earthquake in the Himalayan region is tectonic activity i.e. the Indian and Eurasian tectonic plates collided to create the Himalayas. J&K has frequent earthquakes as a result of the continuous tectonic activity in the area, which sees the Indian Plate hitting against the Eurasian Plate from the north at the rate of 2 cm per year. For numerous years, this colliding force accumulates pressure continuously, which frequently releases itself in shape of earthquakes. The majority of earthquakes in the Himalayas happen at shallow depths (around 30 km), and deep earthquakes show the Indian Plate descending into the mantle towards the endpoints of the arc.
The recent earthquakes in J&K in month of June have jolted many parts of J&K as well as other neighboring states. The earthquakes were continuously striking Kishtwar and Doda district of Jammu and Kashmir around SNF (Sunder Nagar Fault) covering Kishtwar window and it appears like that the earthquake in kishtwar is result of Sunder Nagar Fault which is getting active. As per National Center for Seismology Report, An earthquake of magnitude M: 5.4 occurred at 13:33:42 IST in Doda, district of Jammu and Kashmir, with epicenter at 33.15° N and 75.82° E and a focal depth of 06 km. The epicenter was about 140 km southeast of Srinagar. The epicenter of the earthquakes lies between the Main Central Thrust (MCT) and Jammu thrust (JT) which is NW-SE trending major thrust fault of the Himalaya. The analysis of past 5-years earthquake that minor earthquake in the close of vicinity of the Doda region is usual seismic activity. The preliminary fault plane solution obtained from waveform inversion suggests the dominant thrust for the event. The maximum Intensity VI (MMI scale) has been reported near to the source region.
The crucial areas of concern for the management of earthquakes in J&K include the absence of knowledge of the seismic risk among different stakeholders; insufficient emphasis on structural mitigation strategies in the engineering education curriculum; insufficient monitoring and execution of earthquake-resistant building codes and town planning bye-laws; lacking systems for licensing engineers and masons; lack of earthquake-resistant features in non-engineered building in suburban and rural areas; Professionals do not possess formal training in earthquake-resistant construction techniques, and numerous stakeholder groups lack adequate readiness and reaction capacity.
The monitoring of earthquake in J&K now has been started by Seismology Observatory in the Dandayal neighborhood of the Udhampur district. The observatory will compile a comprehensive seismic record of Udhampur, Doda, Kishtwar, Ramban, and many more districts. Earlier many initiatives have been taking by Government of India (GoI) such as the IMD is the nodal agency of the GoI responsible for monitoring Seismic activities in India through its nationwide network of seismological observatories. The BIS is the nodal agency for preparing earthquake-resistant building codes and other safety related codes. For structures like dams, the responsibility lies with the Central Water Commission (CWC), while for the bridges, it lies with the Indian Roads Congress (IRC). The Survey of India (SOI) has initiated a project for GPS measurement across the country to monitor the tectonic movement across the plate boundaries with the support of the DST and national institutes specialising in geophysics, geology and earth sciences like the National Geophysical Research Institute (NGRI), Hyderabad; the Wadia Institute of Himalayan Geology (WIHG), Dehradun; the Indian Institute of Geo Magnetism (IIG), Mumbai; and the Centre for Earth Science Studies (CESS),Thiruvananthapuram.
As per NDMA guidelines to improve the effectiveness of management of earthquake in J&K, there are six major pillars which include (i) Earthquake Resistant Construction of New Structures (ii) Selective Seismic Strengthening & Retrofitting of existing Priority Structures and Lifeline Structures (iii) Regulation and Enforcement (iv) Awareness & Preparedness (v) Capacity Development (Education, Training, R & D, Capacity Building and Documentation) (vi) Emergency Response.
It may be concluded that natural occurrences like earthquakes are challenging to completely forecast. But it is feasible to lessen the susceptibility and boost the resilience of communities in Jammu and Kashmir when faced with such seismic events, with the right planning and precautions in place.
(The author is M.Sc (Honors) Geology student Cluster University of Jammu)
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