Dr. M. K. Khushu
Climate Change: A change in the state of the climate that can be identified (e.g., by using statistical tests) by changes in the mean and /or the variability of its properties and that persists for an extended period, typically decades or longer. Climate change may due to natural internal processes or external forcing, or to persistent anthropogenic changes in the composition of the atmosphere or land use. Both, “Global Warming” and the opposite phenomenon “Global Cooling”, result in different patterns of Climate Change. Today when we talk of Climate Change we refer to the patterns caused by human induced Global Warming and hence, the terms “Climate Change” and “Global Warming” are used interchangeably. The global warming is nothing but increase of surface temperature due to emission of greenhouse gases, thereby increasing global atmospheric temperature over a long period of time. Such changes in surface air temperature and rainfall over a long period of time is known as climate change. If these parameters show year-to-year variations or cyclic trend, it is known as climate variability.
Climate change is real and already taking place, according to the IPCC’s Assessment Report of 2007. It has been estimated that during the last century the global mean surface air temperature increased on average by 0.74oC, however, that increases varied from place to place. The projected global rise in temperature, average of various models, is estimated at around 3°C by the end of 2100 A.D. Recent simulations by the Indian Network for Climate Change Assessment from 2010 to the 2030s indicate an all round warming over the Indian subcontinent associated with the increasing concentration of greenhouse gases. The annual mean surface air temperature is projected to rise by 1.7 to 2.0 °C in the 2030s (INCCA 2010) and that temperature increases are more pronounced at higher than at lower elevations. The impact of climate change is that the rainfall and even wind patterns are likely to shift with climate change. The monsoons may be delayed and unpredictable rains and heavy downpours are likely to be the rule rather than the exception
Like global, Jammu and Kashmir State has reasons to be concerned about climate change where related effects are being felt, including warmer temperatures for longer periods and long dry spells during the cropping season. The increasing warming and the change in rainfall pattern in the region are expected to affect the economy of the region adversely as vast population depends on climate -sensitive sectors like agriculture, forestry and tourism for livelihood. The adverse impact on water availability due to recession of glaciers, decrease in rainfall and increased flooding in certain pockets would threaten food security, extinction of natural ecosystems including species that sustain the livelihood of rural households
Observed and Projected Climate Trends
To study the climate change of any region, the first and foremost step is to assess historical time series’ data on temperature and precipitation. But unfortunate part in case of Jammu and Kashmir State is that historical meteorological data are scarce because state overall had few weather stations. Though the temperature and precipitation data from observational measurements in Jammu and Kashmir are not sufficient to draw any conclusion with regards to climatic change scenario of the region but trends derived at different levels by various scientists can be an eye-opener for people of the state about the climate change. The analysis of data indicates that there is a moderate warming trend. The temperature across the Jammu region of J & K State, shows increasing trend and it increases at rate of 0.3 to 0.6 O C per decade. Similar trend was reported by Jaswal and Rao in 2010 for Kashmir region where temperature increases 0.4 to 0.5 0 C per decade. Other Climate Scientists in 2007, based upon three stations (Srinagar, Leh and Shimla), reported significant rise in air temperature by 1.6 0 C during the last century in the northwest Himalayan region with winter increase at faster rate. They also deduced that the maximum temperature increased more rapidly than minimum temperature.
If we talk about precipitation, the annual rainfall and rainy days are decreasing in the region. The author of this write up and his co-authors in the study 2011, reported downward trend in rainfall at the rate of 2.0 to 8.4 mm per year in rabi season across the Jammu region however, in kharif season no definite trend was seen .However, in Kashmir region the situation is even worst. As a matter of fact that, during winter, the reduction of snowfall has been clearly noticed over the last few decades in Kashmir. During our childhood, in late sixties, we used to see harsh winters in Kashmir valley due to frequent and heavy snowfalls. Dimri and his co-worker in 2011 reported a distinct shift in precipitation from snow to rain. Actually, the high Himalayan Mountains in the north of India are important sources for generating and maintaining the climate over Jammu and Kashmir. They influence extreme weather events, such as the Western Disturbances (WD) over the region during winter. The shifting of precipitation patterns and deficit of snowfall are probably due to unusual changes in frequency and a characteristic of WD’s which usually originates over the Mediterranean Sea, Black Sea and Atlantic Ocean. Moreover, glaciers are considered among the most sensitive indicators of climate change. The warming of the region has severely impacted glacier formation.
It is pertinent to mention here that there are certain extreme weather events which are noteworthy and alarming indicating real changes in weather pattern. For example during 2007 the winter was warmest for entire Northern Hemisphere including Jammu and Kashmir state where temperature had gone up by 4- 60 C above normal during the month of January, while in the month March heavy snowfall on 13-03-2007, due to western disturbances, resulted significant drop in the over the region and thousands of people get affected by this natural disaster. Yesterday on October 30th, 2013 as per Daily Excelsior news, Kashmir valley witnessed fresh snowfall which led to fall in temperature 2oC below normal.
Though, evidence for global climate change has been well established by scientific communities around the world, the effects of these changes on regional climates still need to be investigated. Regional-scale forcing induced by the regional topographical features, along with land-use characteristics, modifies the effect of climate change. The above studies suggest that temperature in the region. Similarly, during year 2008 winter, the entire northern region including this state was grip of cold wave the valley recorded the minimum temperature – 10 0 C. Further, Leh being described as a high altitude cold desert, where sparse rainfall and a heavy downpour is a rare phenomena but during 2010 the cloudburst occurred 6 August leading to flash flood and mud slides the Jammu & Kashmir is warming and that, in general, climate change is seen greater in temperate region. In view of scanty observational data, the climate model simulations can be used to assist planners and decision makers to look ahead and prepare for adaptation to and mitigation of climate change.
Jammu and Kashmir State, being hilly region, needs micro-level scientific assessment at the district and village levels for effective planning and implementation of measures to combat climate change. Climate change being a multi disciplinary and multifaceted subject require coordinated effort by involving the existing institutions and the expertise available with them for proper understanding and recording the local specific changes in climate. It is necessary for Government to frame the policies that should be supported include those: promoting growth and diversification; strengthening institutions; protecting natural resources; investing in research and development, education and health; creating markets in water and environmental services; improving the international trade system; enhancing resilience to disasters and improving disaster management; and policies promoting risk-sharing, including social safety nets and weather insurance. It is not out of place to mention here that there is need to create a state level Network of Scientists for Climate Change Assessment on the lines of Indian Network for Climate Change Assessment (INCCA).
(The author is Ex Chief Scientist & Head, Agrometeorology, SKUAST-Jammu)
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