Prof Sudhanshu Tripathi
Indeed, China continues to stage a precariously tense situation against India by hugely amassing its soldiers and weapons over Line of Actual Control (LAC) in Ladakh thereby compelling New Delhi to follow suit in its own defence.And that reminds one of the turbulent days in 1962 when China had successfully stabbed into India’s back.Although such incursions by the Chinese army in the unsettled boundary zone with India are not unusual events but this time Beijing has intruded at multiple points into the Indian side, even in such areas like Galwan where, there has never been a dispute regarding actual alignment of the LAC between the two sides.Again, the present standoff between the two is also different from the earlier Doklam dispute in 2017 because it was confined over there. In fact, Doklam is an area near the tri-junction of China, Bhutan and India and also stands disputed between China and Bhutan.
Further, Beijing has also captured an area in Indian Ocean and has also established its air-strip in the Pakistan occupied Kashmir (PoK), as reported by the satellite images. Again India’s endeavour to claim the PoK after Pakistani Supreme Court directed to conduct elections in Gilgit-Baltistan has obviously unnerved both Pakistan and China, because New Delhi’s weather reports included PoK as part of Jammu and Kashmir.Further, China is displeased because its OBOR grand strategy includes the whopping $60 billion China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) which passes through PoK. Hence, Beijing has thrown its gauntlet over India to squeeze it to accept the emerging China-dominated international order.
Although the ongoing Sino-Indian tussle apparently looks as differing perceptionsbetween the two over the LAC,but the real Chinese intention goes far beyond that to include larger geo-political landscape, characterized by the mounting Sino-US tensions.In fact, by staging long standoff over LAC, China can use India as a perfect bet to extract tactical gains over it. But the increasing isolation of China on all global fronts due to its supposedly shady role in leaking Corona virus into the worldhas prompted Beijing to send across a message of dominance in the larger context: South China Sea, Hong Kong, Taiwan, global trade and India.
As the US appears determined to retaliatewith China’s misadventures through both diplomatic means as well as muscle-flexing tricks, reflected in case of Tibet including Hong Kong and South China Sea respectively, Beijing has reacted by assertingits full preparedness to meet even “worst case scenarios”, in words of Chinese President Xi Jinping. In fact, China has selectively hit those countries which have either raised question regarding origin of the Corona virus, as did Australia and New Zealand by supporting WHO’s inspection into China’s Wuhan Lab of Virology, or may become future adversary, particularly India, Vietnam and Philippines, possibly willing to alignwith the impendingUS led post-Corona global alliance against Beijing.
Among these, India is obviously the most potent threat to China due to its inherent moral-cultural power and significant scientific, technological and economic advancements.In fact, India’s distinguished magnanimity, always during humanitarian crises in the past and today in times of global Corona menace too, has mostly been praised by the whole world, including World Health Organization (WHO).Fortunately, the US wants to include New Delhi into the global community of seven rich countries or G-7, along with Russia, Japan and South Korea due to its rising economic potential as well as trusted strategic partnership. Again India is slated to become non-permanent member of the United Nations Security Council. Obviously, India’s rising global stature is particularly distressful to China.
Today,while the whole world is passing through the mounting Corona menace, China is instead working hard to expand its sphere-of-influence in Indian Ocean, PoK and South China Sea, besides twisting Hong Kong’s autonomy under ‘One Country, Two Systems’ approach and also pressurizing Taiwan. But political analysts are of the view that China is facing numerous internal challenges and popular unrest onseveral counts,like reverse Corona attack and economic recession, government’s inability to address people’s aspirations and instead resorting to suppression of masses including minority Uiaghar Muslims etc..All these together pose serious threats to the regime of President Xi,who is earnestly trying to divert the popular attention from his own follies to focus on the thorny border issue with India.
While facing ongoing isolation in the world, Beijing may collude with Nepal, Pakistan and other neighbours of New Delhi,nurturing anti-Indian feelings, to evolve a joint front against India. As Nepal protested over India’s newly inaugurated road to Lipulekh in May2020 and also extended its claim of larger area including Limpiyadhura and Kalapani, obviously at Chinese instigation. While the ongoing standoff in Ladakh may frighten the world,China will prolong the show to deflect global attention away from its presumed Corona-related complicity.
Indeed,China knows that India’s national power is far ahead today that it was in 1962, and it enjoys a distinct fair image under PM NarendraModi. While China is a very unpredictable mighty power and maintains cautious silence India has to remain very cautious over the LAC to ensure its territorial unity and integrity. Hence the continuing Sino-Indian tensions may either result into local skirmishes between the soldiers or may worsen for some time till Beijing faces global isolation and mounting of pressures to come out clean from its dubious role in not sharing the Covid-19 facts with the world, while influencing the WHO to support Chinese stand. Indeed, all these Chinese acts are aimed at establishing the unbridled global hegemony of China which still suffers from the “middle kingdom complex”.
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