Anna and AAP

Upendra Prasad
When Arvind Kejriwal launched Aam Aadmi Party to join electoral politics, people took him lightly. When he announced that his party would fight Delhi Assembly Elections, most of the political analysts were of the view that he would only spoil the chances of BJP and facilitate the victory of Congress by splitting anti Congress votes. Congress leaders were happy over it and BJP leaders were feeling threatened by the presence of Aam Aadmi Party.
Now the election schedules have been announced and many pre poll surveys have also been conducted by many agencies. In all surveys, Aam Aadmi Party has come out as a potent third force in Delhi politics. Initial surveys indicated that, though AAP may not get much seats, but it has capability to make Delhi Assembly hung. Even a hung Assembly will be an achievement of the newly formed party, which may force a re election by not aligning with any of the two major parties in Delhi. But with passage of time, AAP is moving ahead as shown in the various surveys. The latest survey conducted by Neilson, suggests that Arvind Kejriwal has emerged as the most preferred leader for the post of Chief Minister of Delhi with 32 percent popular support, while the other two challengers for the post are placed at second with 27 percent popular support each. The party of Kejriwal is slated to get 18 Assembly seats, while BJP would be the single largest party with 28 seats followed by Congress with 22 seats.
Though, the pre poll election surveys are not always correct, but in Delhi, one can see the public mood by the presence of people in the meetings of Kejriwal and their enthusiasm towards his candidates. BJP and Congress are yet to decide their candidates, but Kejriwal has already announced them and he is busy along with them in election campaign. AAP has taken the lead in campaign and Kejriwal himself is covering almost all the streets of Delhi with the candidate of the concerned area.
AAP is the result of a movement launched against corruption. It was the biggest movement against corruption since independence, in which crores of people all over India had participated. The leader of the movement was Gandhian Anna Hazare and the centre of his movement was Delhi. A movement turning into a political party is not new phenomenon in India. In Andhra Pradesh, NTR had turned his movement into a party and even won the elections. Many left parties are the result of the movement. Some of them have succeeded in wining elections and forming the government, while some of them, like CPI (ML-Liberation) and Marxist Coordination Committee (MCC) have just won some seats. AAP is not a party based on any such defined ideology; rather it has been formed to provide a political platform to those people, who want a corruption and crime free politics and government.
The shortcoming of AAP is the absence of the tallest leader of the movement, Anna Hazare, who refused to take part in electoral politics. Not only did Anna refuse to join the party of his movement, but also barred Kejriwal to use his photo or even name in his campaign for the new party. If people were skeptical for the success of AAP in Delhi elections, the main reason was the absence of Anna in the party. The movement turned into a political party san its main leader was the main reason, why people did not have much confidence in the victory of AAP, but the sustained campaign by Kejriwal and his team could keep the hope alive for his party in Delhi and now things are turning in his favor. Kejriwal and his party also made their best to identify themselves with the common people of Delhi and fought for their genuine issues. That is the reason, why Arvind Kejriwal has emerged the most popular leader of Delhi and AAP has made the fight triangular in traditionally bipolar polity of Delhi.
Delhi had been the centre of Anna movement and lakhs of Delhiites had participated in the movement. Those who participated included even BJP workers, supporters and sympathizers, but there were many people, who did not have any party affiliations. This is the reason why AAP had good start as a party and it attracted many committed members in its fold.
The latest pre poll survey by Neilson shows Kejriwal the tallest of all the three CM candidates, but his party is still placed at third position. This seems to be somewhat absurd, but in politics such absurdities are common. It only reflects that there are people, who want to see Kejriwal as next CM, but are skeptical of his party forming the government, that is why they are not willing to vote for it. Many voters do not wish to vote for the candidates, who are not in the main contests. This is the politics of negativism and this negativism is faced by almost all parties fighting elections for the first time.
But there are other negativisms as well. They may work for AAP in next elections. One of such negativism is the internal fights going on in parties like BJP and Congress. Such fights do have fallout during elections. Those groups or candidates, who find themselves cornered in ticket distribution turned rebels or saboteurs and help other parties in this way. BJP and Congress are yet to declare their candidates. Those, who are dissatisfied with the ticket distribution, may help AAP to improve its performance. BJP workers and supporters had taken active part in Anna movement and they may switch towards AAP overtly or covertly in case of dissatisfaction over ticket distributions. Even Congress dissidents may help AAP in such condition. That is why it will be interesting to see the result of pre poll survey of Delhi Assembly Elections after the declaration of candidates by BJP and Congress.
Anna Hazare was the main leader of the movement against corruption. After initial dillydallying he decided to keep himself away from the newly formed AAP. Anna has his own perception about the electoral politics and that perception has kept him away from this party. He perceives that to win election, you have to spend crores of rupees and to get that much, you have to corrupt yourself. As a simple man, Anna has reached this conclusion, which is not universal truth. There are some parts in India, where elections are not as costly as Maharashtra, Andhra and Karnataka. If AAP leaders convince Anna to campaign for AAP in Delhi just on experiment basis, this will further change the electoral scene of Delhi. The million dollar question is will Anna campaign for AAP in Delhi? (IPA)

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