Ashok Ogra
After enjoying a single party majority in the 2014 and 2019 elections, the 2024 election verdict has, much to the surprise of many pollsters, denied the BJP the majority necessary to form a Government on its own. The party secured 240 seats, 32 short of gaining a simple majority. To retain power, the BJP has reached an agreement to form a coalition Government that includes the two regional parties-Telugu Desam Party and Janata Dal-United, apart from other smaller parties.This arrangement has led credence to the popular saying: “Coalition politics is not the politics of the ideal; it is the politics of the possible.”
The question bothering most Indians is whether Narendra Modi will be able to manage the contradictions that a coalition Government entails. Going by his record – first as undisputed and unchallenged Chief Minister of Gujarat from 2001 till 2014 and then two terms as Prime Minister till 2024, it is undoubtedly going to be a huge challenge. He is decisive and not consultative by nature. He prefers operating through his trusted advisors and bureaucrats, and often gives short shrift to the elected representatives. Will he make a transition to being more accommodative and ensure that decisions are made with collective buy-in is difficult to predict?
Managing coalition Governments is inherently challenging due to the diversity of ideologies and power dynamics. However, with clear agreements, willingness to foster cooperation and robust conflict resolution mechanisms, these challenges can be navigated successfully. The success of such Governments ultimately depends on maintaining a shared vision for the greater good.
Coalition Governments, when managed well, can offer inclusive and representative governance, and contribute to a more robust democratic process.
The concept of coalition Governments is not new, and it has evolved over time in various forms and in different countries. The first modern coalition Government – The Broad Bottom Ministry (1744-1754) – is often credited to the United Kingdom. The coalition was primarily driven by the need to unite various factions to stabilize the Government and effectively manage the country’s affairs. The Netherlands also has a long history of coalition Governments, with one of the first modern coalition Governments forming in 1848.
Such Governments have become a common and essential feature in parliamentary democracies worldwide, including countries like Germany, India, Israel, and Italy, where multi-party systems necessitate the formation of coalitions to achieve a governing majority.Italy has had the maximum number of coalition Governments in the recent past: since World War II, it has had 68 different Governments, averaging about one Government every 1.1 years.
Back home, we have examples of political leaders reinventing themselves to adjust to new realities. Narasimha Rao had not expected to become Prime Minister. He had retired from politics and his party had won 232 seats, short of a majority. Therefore, his journey from heading a coalition Government to ushering in major economic reforms is an intriguing tale of political adaptation and pragmatism. He gave full freedom to his finance minister Manmohan Singh to dismantle the ‘license raj’, modernize the banking and stock markets, ease restrictions on FDI etc… ‘No decision is also a decision’, Rao would often say, a philosophical twist to what his critics felt was only dithering on decisions. Neerja Chowdhury in her book HOW PRIME MINISTERS DECIDE, quotes Rao’s loyalist Bhuvanesh Chaturvedi:”PV Thanda Karke Khate Hain (PB believes in first cooling the food and then eating it.”
The handling of the Cauvery water dispute between Tamil Nadu and Karnataka was a critical issue faced by Rao Government. The AIADMK criticized the central Government’s approach, claiming it was detrimental to Tamil Nadu’s interests, and formally withdrew its support, thus reducing the Government to a minority in the Lok Sabha. In spite of this, Rao managed to navigate the political turbulence through strategic alliances and support from other smaller parties and independent MPs and complete a full five year term.
It was Rao’s deep political acumen and understanding of the political landscape that allowed him to navigate the complexities of his own party and that of coalition politics effectively.
Described as the most ‘peaceable PM who roared’, Atal Bihari Vajpayee’s personality was central to his success in managing a coalition Government during 1999-2004. His inclusive leadership style, which emphasized dialogue and negotiation, fostered a sense of unity and collaboration among diverse coalition partners. Remember, BJP had won only 182 seats. Vajpayee skillfully managed relationships with regional and smaller parties, securing their support on critical issues and ensuring Government stability.
Vajpayee’s tenure was marked by significant economic reforms, from the new telecom policy to a greater thrust on disinvestment, inaugurating the Golden Quadrilateral and National Highways Development Project etc. His policies laid the foundation for India’s economic growth and development in the following decades.
Vajpayee’s charisma and strong oratory skills inspired confidence and rallied support within the Government, and he also managed to keep the RSS in good humour.
Unlike Rao and Vajpayee, Manmohan Singh had no prior political experience and yet, as the head of a coalition Government (the UPA alliance managed to secure 222 seats with the Congress party winning just 145 seats), he steered India through significant economic transformations, attracting foreign investment, enhancing infrastructure, and boosting GDP growth rates. He was admired for his intellect, integrity, and technocratic approach to governance. His leadership was characterized by his calm demeanor, focus on economic development, and commitment to inclusive growth. He often emphasized the importance of reforms and was credited with maintaining economic stability during his tenure.
His ability to maintain the coalition through effective negotiation, compromise, and addressing the diverse concerns of coalition partners was instrumental in ensuring the Government’s stability.
It is widely believed that in a coalition Government, taking decisive decisions often becomes a casualty. But the record does not support this assumption. Above all, it was Rao who took the bull by the horn and liberalized the economy – much to the chagrin of several left-leaning congressmen.
Atal Bihari Vajpayee Government was confronted with the infiltration of Pakistani soldiers into Kargil sector in J&K. Vajpayee authorized a swift and decisive military response. He ensured that the Indian Armed Forces had the necessary support and resources to carry out Operation Vijay, aimed at flushing out the intruders. His actions demonstrated his ability to make swift, strategic decisions while maintaining a balanced approach.
Who can forget Singh’s most notable act of decisive leadership when he went ahead and signed the India-U.S. Civil Nuclear deal? Despite strong opposition from several political parties and members of his coalition (with the left parties withdrawing their support), Singh remained steadfast. He risked his Government’s stability to push the agreement through, ultimately seeking and winning a confidence vote in Parliament to ensure its passage.
True, leaders with an absolute majority benefit from the ability to make swift, decisive decisions aligned closely with their vision, resulting in consistent and stable policies. This approach is advantageous in situations requiring prompt resolution.
However, the reverse is also true: such leaders who are capable of taking decisive decisions run the risk of betraying sound judgment. How does one explain the imposition of an emergency by Mrs. Gandhi- bypassing the cabinet? Similarly, Modi’s COVID-19 lockdown exposed several challenges, particularly the migrant crisis and the economic impact on vulnerable populations. Balancing decisiveness with thoroughness, inclusiveness, and flexibility is crucial for effective decision-making.
In contrast, leaders managing a coalition must navigate the complexities of consensus-building, which may slow down decision-making, but at least it ensures more inclusive and representative governance.
What is equally creditable is the overall economic performance achieved under the coalition Governments. During Rao’s period, the GDP registered an average growth of 5.38%, while during Vajpayee’s tenure it increased to an average of 6.0% before registering a healthy 7.6% during Singh’s two terms between 2004-2014.
The phrase “Politics is the art of the possible, the attainable – the art of the next best,” is attributed to Otto von Bismarck, a 19th-century German statesman. This saying highlights a pragmatic approach to politics, emphasizing that successful politics is about being pragmatic, realistic, and flexible, working incrementally towards improvements rather than seeking perfection. It encourages politicians to navigate the complexities of the real world and to make the best possible decisions within the constraints they face.
Nobody doubts Modi’s political astuteness, political adaptability, and electoral mastery and crisis management abilities. However, he has to acknowledge that in coalition Governments, compromise is not a sign of weakness; it is in fact the strength that keeps the partnership working.
There is no doubt that under the leadership of Modi, the country has witnessed decent growth across various sectors of the economy. That the country is going to be $25 -35 trillion by 2047 is no ordinary feat. Also, India is today acknowledged as one of the leading emerging global powers by the developed countries. What is worrying, however, is the erosion in the autonomy of key constitutional bodies and institutions that provide the necessary nutrients to our democracy? An informed citizenry holding differing viewpoints is at the heart of a dynamic democracy. “Without debate, without criticism, no administration and no country can succeed, and no republic can survive.” (John F Kennedy phrase)
Knowing that he is keen to surpass the record of Nehru as the longest elected Prime Minister in office, there is every likelihood of Modi reinventing himself. Can the beginning be made by announcing a non-BJP MP as the next speaker of the Lok Sabha? Recall, that during Vajpayee’s tenure, the speaker post was held by M. C. Balayogi and Manohar Joshi – belonging to the Telgu Desam Party and the Shiv Sena respectively.
Also, if he listens to Vajpayee’s advice to follow ‘Raj Dharma’, he has a strong possibility of being remembered in history as another Vajpayee.
(The author is a noted management and media professional cum educator.)
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