B L Saraf
Elections results of Gujarat and Himachal Pradesh assemblies are before us. So are of Municipal Corporation Delhi and assembly by-elections held in UP, Bihar, Rajasthan and Orissa. Winner of Mainpuri Parliamentary constituency in UP is also known, by now. The results whereof tell a story of ‘some win some loss ‘ – in as much as there has been something for all the three main contestants to talk about. While as BJP has a huge reason to feel elated at the humongous outcome of Gujarat election, Congress has the solace of Himachal Pradesh victory and Arvind Kejriwal led AAP has lot to cheer about with the accrual of 13 percent vote share and five seats in Gujarat assembly-Delhi and Punjab being already in the kitty – the AAP has suddenly catapulted to the national level as a political force of some reckoning.
The magnitude of Gujarat result has undoubtedly put a stamp of invincibility on BJP in the state, but same can’t be said about other places where elections or by- elections were simultaneously held. Because, the results, there, have not been flattering to it. We leave it to the political Pundits to have an overall analysis of the election outcome – the effects and after effects it will have on the national political scene in near and distant future. BJP being the principal party which rules centre and half the States in India, a comment on its performance at the hustings can’t be avoided. Leaving apart Gujarat, the election results coming from other places ought to be a cause of concern for the party. Given the nature of its working, we are sure that BJP’s in house introspection and eventual course correction will be underway soon. What should be a major cause of worry for the party is the perception that PM Narendra Modi’s appeal to the voters does not hold sway when it comes to the local/state elections.
We have seen it in case of HP where PM told voters not to bother too much about the contesting candidates, keep him in mind and then put stamp on the “Lotus ” symbol which will straightway reach him as their “Prashad .” BJP commissioned half a dozen of its CMs and dozens of central ministers to dazzle the electorate and bolster its campaign in HP and Delhi. But the move didn’t evoke a commensurate response. Even the emotive sloganeering didn’t help the party. In a bid to fortify its poll chances ,the BJP reminded people of tinkering of Art 370 and abolition of Art 35A and its pursuit to strengthen the ‘nationalism.’
It may be pertinent to recall that the 5th August, 2019 Act did not help BJP to garner votes even in Jammu region. The party couldn’t win even one third of the 307 seats in BDC elections which were held so soon after neutralizing Art 370 and abolition of Art 35 A . In politics emotions do play a part but they work only up to a point, and in the long run matters of bread and butter overtake a voter when he enters the polling booth . True , the elections in states are fought on local issues so the electoral reversal should not be seen as a reflection on working of the central government. But, earlier, BJP carried issue of 370 to the places in Maharashtra and Haryana and lately to HP to lure voters but of no avail ,then . Perhaps, it is time that BJP learns limit of the ‘nationalistic fervour ‘and lowers down the political hype .
The Election 2022 may give heart to the local politicians in J&K that something can be retrieved from the debris of Aug 5th, 2019 “Earthquake .” It may comfort them a great deal that despite its vast reach and huge resoursces the BJP can be challenged successfully on a local political turf. At this level probably PM Modi too may not be able to buttress its political fortune. Kashmir based political parties like NC and PDP have potential and capacity to reclaim major part of the political ground lost in the wake of neutralization of Art 370. They only have to put their house in order, save the flock from crossing over to the other pasture which may look more greener. They must reach out to the people -afresh and address their real issues of bread and butter and not waste time and energy in pampering to the emotive issues. Everyone in Kashmir has not fallen prey to the false emotions. Good number of them have sacrificed their everything for India . It is no wisdom to paint them with the same brush and lump them with the undesirable political elements. They deserve better life, regard for their sensitivities and a say in the state government which, to some extent, election may provide them with .
It is a good sign that every political player in J&K is eagerly in wait of the elections to constitute the legislative Assembly . We witness a great political churning going on in the UT, particularly in Kashmir. Farooq Abdullah has admitted his party’s mistake of not taking part in local body elections, held in 2018. Rectification of the mistake will bode well for the political and social climate of the Valley , as it would make elections more meaningful. ‘Boycott business ‘ has lost sheen in Kashmir .It did pay dishonorable dividends in the past , but today many in Kashmir may not venture into the business.
Here is the caveat ! Having seen what happened to its poll prospects in Delhi, Himachal Pradesh and how it fared in by-elections held elsewhere will BJP top brass risk unfavorable poll result in J &K- particularly in Kashmir – where political terrain has generally been rough and tough for the national parties to tread on? We may have to wait longer to get a chance to take part in the festival of democracy, i e elections .
(The author is former Principal District & Sessions Judge)
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