G L Raina
Democracy, in which state power is vested with people’s representatives elected through competitive election, has evolved over a period of time. In spite of several deficiencies this is considered to be the better form of governance.
Regular elections are essential to a real democratic polity. There are however other equally vital components also integral to democracy. One such element is protection of rights of every citizen irrespective of whether She or he belongs to a minority group unable to elect a representative, has voted in favour or against the incumbent government and so on.
We have witnessed a very successful, free, fair and fearless election process in Jammu Kashmir. This entire exercise was completed peacefully, without any untoward incident. Large participation of enthusiastic people makes it further credible and effective. As a natural corollary, participating parties, observers and analysts are evaluating the process and result from different angles and perspectives.
Result vs Resultant
Result of the three phase voting was out on October 8, 2024. The National Conference (NC) emerged as the single largest party winning 42 seats. Congress party, a pre-poll alliance partner of NC with 6 wins, took the tally of alliance to 48 past the halfway mark. Few independents amounting to seven seats also pledged their support to NC, thus almost ending its dependence on its alliance partner.
Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in its best ever performance was victorious in 29 Assembly segments. The People’s Democratic Party (PDP) won three, the People’s Conference and the Aam Aadmi Party won one each. Another seat was secured by a CPIM candidate who was also in alliance with INDI Block.
NC got the highest 46.6 percent seats, BJP 32.2 per cent and independents 7.7 per cent seats. Congress party won only 6. 6 per cent seats in the 90 member house. Election commission says BJP with a total vote share of 25.64 per cent was at the top followed by NC at 23.43 per cent. Congress party with a meagre 11.97 per cent is a distant third. That is the result in relatively complete detail.
However, it is not sufficient to help us understand the resultant of a fiercely fought election. Almost everyone agrees that this election saw extreme polarisation on several counts more so on the basis of region and religion. Fault lines were exploited without any consideration for the consequences. Winning the election was the ultimate priority.
Post-election and after the Government formation both the ruling party and the opposition will have to confront the combined effect of multiple actions/events as the outcome of the process cannot be avoided or wished away for too long. Cause and effect theory does work, even if not desired.
All the winning candidates have to keep in mind the fact that they may have won their Assembly segment by securing more votes than their political rivals, but they have in most cases been unable to garner the support of even a majority of voters who exercised their right to franchise. Support of the majority of eligible electors in their constituency is thus farfetched. It is not to undermine your success but a simple reality check.
Voter’s communication
On the face of it results are clear and flawless. NC has got the mandate of people of Jammu Kashmir to rule the UT for five years. Reasons behind this choice or margins of victory do not make much of a difference. Nevertheless, it will be improper to leave it at that inference.
Beyond religious and regional divide other messages are so obvious & deep in this mandate. Even within the regions, in particular say Kashmir province voters have not chosen NC out rightly. This is evident from voter’s data as shown by the election commission on its website.
In Kashmir valley for example there were 46, 36,698 eligible electors out of whom 54.52% or 25, 28,333 opted to vote. NC got only 9, 25,259 votes 36.59 per cent of polled votes but a mere 19.95 per cent of total eligible voters. NC along with its allies that is both Congress party and CPIM received10, 66,168 votes that is just 42.16 per cent of valid votes polled. But it comprises only 22.8 per cent of all eligible voters of Kashmir valley.
If we look at numbers in three different regions of Kashmir province NC was choice of a highest number of voters in central Kashmir the area which has always been Humraz of ruling dispensation. 3, 25.502 voters or 49.5 percent voters cast their vote in favour of NC candidates, still below fifty per cent. It was followed by south Kashmir or Maraz where 2, 56,757 voters at 44.02 per cent opted for the party. Kamraz or north Kashmir contributed the lowest number of votes to the kitty of NC. 2, 39,416 electors at 40.3 percent sided with NC in this area.
Yet another fact visible from the data is that only twelve candidates out of thirty five successful NC candidates in Kashmir valley got fifty or more than fifty per cent of the votes cast. This number in Jammu province is more than twenty. To emphasize again, this is just votes cast not the total number of eligible voters. Out of valley seats 14 assembly constituencies saw a turnout of less than fifty per cent with Habba Kadal at lowest that is below twenty per cent. The simple and straight fact is the NC party though an old party with cadres almost everywhere, continues to represent a narrow section of the population not the entire Kashmir. Jammu region needs separate analysis.
Consequence
This electoral data and conclusion of the election process has consequences. The message is loud and clear to the leadership of the winning party that is the NC. It is equally valid for other political organisations. People of Kashmir who gave you a clear cut mandate in terms of seats are not fully endorsing your politics. Even the majority of voters who participated disagreed with your policy and politics.
Jammu Kashmir is full of complexities and disparities. In spite of a huge push to an all-out transformation at ground level in recent years much more needs to be done. Inclusion of left out and left behind sections of society can no longer be delayed. Emerging challenges in a fast changing scenario will need deft handling. It is possible only if leadership is ready to sacrifice populist and party oriented interests for the larger good of people. Transparent, accountable and compassionate model of governance with sustainable policy planning must be the thrust.
Now it is up to leadership to take everyone along with instead of repeating the divisive politics of the past. Jammu Kashmir must not be pushed to another cycle of death and destruction. Keep in mind that another election is not that far away. Question is will they rise to the occasion?
(The author is Ex-Member Legislative Council Jammu Kashmir)
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