Prof M K Bhat
Bangladesh celebrated its victory day on Dec 15thafter neglecting not only the army that made 93000 Pakistani soldiers to surrender but also its father of the nation Sheikh MujiburRahman who worked for the independence of the country.There was no mention of India’s contribution in the independence war of Bangladesh in the speech of Mohd Yunus.The present interim government under Mohd Yunus has not only neglected the atrocities of Pakistani army on Bangladeshis but is trying to get cosy with Pakistan. The present turmoil in Bangladesh started with a student agitation is attaining new heights by adding horrific stories every day to its credit. The birth of Bangladesh was on the bases of language rather than religion but every day atrocities on Hindus, its anti – India tirade, love for Pakistan,along with growing fanaticism emphatically conveys the interim governments aversion to idea of its founding fathers.It is important to point out here that the constitution of Bangladesh holds that the state shall ensure equal status and equal rights in the practice of Hindu, Christian and other religions. Freedom of religion is guaranteed by Bangladeshi constitution.It calls for equal rights to all its citizens irrespective of their religious differences.The interim government pandering to extremists, an inactive military, shrinking space for minorities,voices to declare Bangladesh an Islamic state, makes one to see Bangladesh turning into a replica of Pakistan. All this indicates, Bangladesh can slide back in history and ally with Pakistan as a mirror state with similar dispensation and motivation.
Bangladesh Govt initially tried to conceal its communal agenda as an internal affair of Bangladesh but could not contain things for too long and got exposed at international level.The soft shell of secularism in Bangladesh faded with the ouster of Sheikh Hasina from her post.The interim Government, supported by Pakistan, seems least bothered about hardcore Islamic fanatics roaming on the roads of Bangladesh delivering hate speeches against India, anti-Hindu sloganeering, burning temples, desecrating all signs of Mujibur Rehman and ISIS too is visible in these congregations. Why it is adopting Pakistan brand of communal and anti- India politics is a big question in itself and has given rise to certain pertinent questions like: Why Hindus are victimised in Bangladesh? Do the agitators know the implication of their outbursts on Bangladesh economy? Does Bangladesh want to accept the Pakistani hegemony against which it had struggled in 1970? Does Bangladesh bear no respect for the contribution of India in achieving its freedom? What will be its consequences for India as a neighbour? How India will respond to the present happenings in its neighbourhood? Why Bangladesh is acquiring arms from Pakistan, China and Turkey? Is it out of fear of India’s reaction or has Bangladesh some other plan? Will there be more terrorist infiltration in India from its north eastern borders? Will the turmoil create more space for China in the region? Will India be facing another Pakistan on its eastern borders? what will be the impact of communal politics of Bangladesh on Bangladeshi Hindus and other minorities? Was CAA not required? Is Pakistan using it against India? What made Bangladesh to rejuvenate relations with Pakistan despite fighting against it for its freedom and ethnic identity as both have been Islamic countries?
Bangladesh has reportedly relaxed visa restrictions, including security clearance for Pakistani nationals in Bangladesh, this will carry two effects. Firstly, it will lead to an escalation in the movement of Pakistani intelligence people in Bangladesh which can poses a major security threat to India as India and Bangladesh share long and porous border of 4,096-kilometers. It may ultimately result in more infiltration in India’s north eastern states, especially Assam, West Bengal, Mizoram,Meghalaya etc. secondly in the long run it will create problems for Dhaka too as the two countries are on different levels of economic growth so people from Pakistan will find it better to settle in Bangladesh.
The unrest in Bangladesh and mute reactions of Bangladesh interim Government will encourage terror elements. New Delhi’s concern is about the release of Islamic extremists and terrorists from its jails can renew terror attacks. In Yunus Government Mufti Jashimuddin Rehmani chief of Ansarullah Bangla team – an affiliate of Al Qaeda was released from jail. He has his network in India and can disturb peace in the country. As per a report by India Today, a Pakistan-backed extremist organization, Jamaat, has established itself in Ambar Khana area in Sylhet, and is reportedly planning to infiltrate its cadres into India’s northeastern states
On the economic front’ first time in 53 years a cargo vessel from Karachi docked in Chattogram port marking the direct connection between Pakistan and Bangladesh under Yunus Government. This conveys the shift in Yunus strategy towards Pakistan. This initiative will accelerate existing trade flow and promote new opportunities for business from both sides.The revival of its relations with Pakistan will be a challenge for India.The resumption of maritime relations between the two countries can have geopolitical rather than economic importance because shipping route from Karachi to Chittagong is costlier and time consuming than other options available with Bangladesh. The direct shipping between the two countries will give Pakistan access toBay of Bengal as well as a channel to India’s north east both of these will be a challenge for India.
India enjoys favourable trade balance with Bangladesh as in September 2024 India exported $ 861 M and imported $206M from Bangladesh resulting in a positive trade balance of $655 M.between sept.2023 and sept.2024 the exports of India have decreased by $- 8.53 M(-0.98%) from $ 869 M to $ 861 M while imports have increased by $ 43 M (26 . 3%) from $163M to $206M. The present anti India tirade by Pakistani elements in Bangladesh will directly influence India’s trade with thecountry and will pave way for easy flourishing of China.
The journey of Bangladesh from one of the world’s poorest country to a fast-growing economy seems coming to a halt due to the current turmoil. The economy of Pakistan is in a bad shape and slowly Bangladesh is also heading towards the same impacted by high inflation, a balance of payments deficit, financial sector vulnerabilities, and increasingly limited job opportunities for its youth-particularly women and educated young people as per a recent statement of World Bank. Bangladesh’s real GDP growth slowed to 5.2% in FY24, driven by weak consumption.Its hankering for strong relations with Pakistan was evident in the just concluded D8 Summit in Cairo where Yunus urged Pak prime ministerNawaz Sharief to strengthen the relations between the two countries. Pakistan in its present position can guide it for terrorism and anti-India tirade not for prosperity. It is a blatant threat to India.
India can’t change its neighbours so it has to be very cautious about the happenings in Bangladesh. First India shall try to stop extremist forces from expanding and assure Bangladesh’s political and economic stability and secondly,it may have to keep a check on opportunities that can help China to increase its influence in Bangladesh.
Although India has openly expressed its concern for Hindu minorities in Bangladesh and the latter has shown just eyewash behaviour in this respect and expressed its desire for good relations with India but the fact remains that the Yunus Government has failed to contain the atrocities on minorities and it is getting cosy with Pakistan at the cost of India.
(The author is Professor Guru Gobind Singh Indraprastha University, Delhi)
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