Harsha Kakar
In a press conference at the foreign correspondents’ club in Delhi last week, the Pakistan High Commissioner to India made comments which immediately sparked a national debate. The comments which faced the maximum outburst within the country were linked to suspension of peace talks, non- reciprocal visit by the Indian National Investigation Agency (NIA) and the involvement of India in fuelling insurgency in Pakistan based on the capture of a so-called RAW agent. In a surprising action, soon after, part of his controversial comments were overridden by his own foreign ministry indicating that all is not well within the civil-military establishment.
In diplomatic circles it is well established that the Pakistan military controls security and foreign policy towards India, as also all aspects pertaining to development and deployment of nuclear weapons. Therefore, the High Commissioner of Pakistan, would in reality be more responsible to the army chief than his own civilian government. Hence the words he would have spoken would be what the military would have asked him too. The basic reason is the worry setting in of their direct involvement being exposed, post the recent visit.
The recent visit of the Joint Investigation Team (JIT) of Pakistan to India and its interaction with the NIA led to all inputs of the Indian investigation being shared. The inputs, obtained painstakingly and in great detail, clearly proved the joint involvement of the JeM and the ISI. Thus when India, as per UN resolution 1373, of which both nations are signatories asked for a reciprocal visit of the NIA with access to the leaders of JeM and LeT, it created a flutter within their military. The major aspect, which Basit failed to mention, was that it was Pakistan which had first requested India for the visit, to enable it to investigate the attack in greater detail. Therefore, in every manner they have to reciprocate. However, the extent of sharing and making witnesses available is another issue altogether.
The reciprocal visit isalso part of the agreed terms between the two governments. The Indian High Commissioner and the Pakistan foreign ministry were dealing with the subject, their High Commissioner,in Delhi, being out of the loop. The terms also included no interaction with serving soldiers. Therefore, his comments on the visit being one of cooperation and not reciprocal were also wrong. His statement appeared to be made in haste aimed at creating political confusion within India thus scuttling the investigation and preventing embarrassment to their military and ISI.
Basit’s next controversial comment was on possible Indian involvement in Baluchistan, defended by the supposed arrest of a RAW agent. Any such person arrested, if in reality to be an agent, would immediately be given counselor access and the Indian High Commissioner summoned and questioned on India’s involvement. This would throw the ball in India’s court compelling it to defend its case. However, since the truth would be far from whatBasit stated, the government in Islamabad is still hesitant to provide counselor access. This non provision of access clearly indicates that Pakistan does not have relevant proof of India’s involvement. Theso-called confession on television was a stage managed event, aimed at attaining local support and creating an anti-India hype. On the contrary there are numerous cases of Pakistani nationals captured alive while being involved in terrorist strikes, including that of AjmalKasab, who was hanged recently.
Basit’sfinal comment on the suspension of talks were his most illogical. They were publically decried by his own foreign ministry almost immediately. Their foreign ministry clearly stated that consultations between the two governments are in progress and that there is no suspension. The reality is that the talks have not moved forward, as India is still wary of the true intentions and ability of the Pakistan government. Their government has to ensure that the military is completely on board before any progress takes place. This would indicate the reining in of the terrorist groups operating from their soil.
The recent blasts in Lahore and subsequent military operations show the divide within their establishment. Counter terrorist operations were launched not on orders of the elected government but on the directions of the army chief. Unless this divide is bridged, and the military is on board, talks would be futile. However, at the same time, the two governments are in touch, the NSA’s are in regular contact, to the extent that intelligence inputs on infiltrators are passed on by him.Post the irresponsible comments by Basit, the two NSA’s spoke. More importantly there has been peace along the LOC with just one violation over the weekend.
The two nations are presently in very different environments. While India is seeking to grow into an economic giant and developing stronger conventional military capabilities, Pakistan continues to be in the throes of terrorism. With Punjab also being involved, terrorism would now encompass the entire nation. It therefore is a military state with a civilian government only in name. India is capable of purchasing its military hardware, while Pakistan obtains the same based on the largesse of the US and China. However, while the political leadership of both sides feel that peace and talks would benefit, the Pakistan military thinks otherwise. It has yet to get over earlier military defeats and change its strategy of ‘bleeding India by a thousand cuts’.
This diametrically opposite scenario on both sides makes sustained talks a difficult prospect, however only astute diplomacy can push it forward. India’s internal political dynamics also alludes it from partaking a risky venture. Thus it becomes a wait and watch attitude, seeking the correct signal, by which a push forward can take place. Till that time comes, people like Basit should avoid becoming loose cannons. It is surprising that even after being rebuked by his own ministry within hours, he has not been recalled. Maybe, he has the army’s blessing to continue.
(The author is a retired Major General of the Indian Army)
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