Men, Matters & Memories
M L Kotru
The battle lines are clearly drawn, the bugles sounded full blast and the combatants all but ready to pull the trigger. And all this much before the polling days in the State have even been announced. Why, even before the model code for the statewide election has come into force.
The two weeks I spent in the valley, returning to my base earlier this week, had no surprises to offer. That the former Chief Minister and veteran Kashmiri leader, Mufti Mohammad Sayeed and his People’s Democratic Party are all set to romp home comfortably in the valley has been clear as day light, with almost similar clarity with which one sees the ruling National Conference facing a rout.
The NC has yet to overcome the shock of the defeat its patron Farooq Abdullah suffered in the parliamentary polls three months ago. And an ailing Farooq is said to have taken the loss to his heart; he has ceased to be the grand cavalier of just a few years ago and Omar, his son, and the current Chief Minister, sad to say, doesn’t seem up to the task, of reversing the PDP upsurge.
PDP incidentally won all the three Parliamentary seats from the valley with the resurgent BJP – thanks to the Modi effect- picking up three seats from the Jammu region and is, as of now, aggressive enough to challenge the valley parties for overall supremacy in the State. This may be indicative of the prevailing sense of triumphalism in the Party but is certainly not a politically sound stance to adopt; it is not a politically viable path to take and yet it cannot be totally ruled out.
The party somehow believes that it has the capability to assert its political will in all matters concerning the State, the valley included but the farthest from reality according to me.
Just the same you really cannot tell what further surprises the party might have in its bag of tricks to pursue its half-revealed objectives in the State. Notice, that such surprises might come into the open in the next two weeks or so, has already been served by the pro-saffron fringe of Kashmiri Pandit migrants living in Jammu, by raking up a pointless controversy over Kaunsarnag, for years a trying destination even for hardened trekkers, which the Pandits seem to have suddenly discovered is a major religious destination for them to be leading yatras to, a la the Amarnath Yatra.
They seem to have taken it into their heads that the yatra should take off from the valley-end near Shopian town and not the traditional route followed via Reasi by the handful of trekker-pilgrims till now. Kaunsarnag, as far as I know, has little to offer, apart from an awesome glimpse of nature’s beauty, capped by the presence of an impressive glacier and, of course, the remarkable sense of joy it holds for trekkers, the religious types as much as the compulsive trekker always looking out for newer and more difficult pathway.
Some years ago I was just a day’s trek away from Kaunsarnag, having ventured up to the picturesque mini waterfall at Ahrabal, a short drive away from the populous fruit-rich Shopian town, the Pir Panjal range providing an impressive backdrop, as it were. That was in the 1970s and Ahrabal had just acquired a brand new tourist lodge. Hardly ever, then as much as now, could I have expected it to become a virtual flashpoint for communal or regional passions to be ignited?
Talk has gained currency after the Pandit-BJP claim to the glacier as a holy place that the Muslim population has laid a counter-claim to the place as its own, hoisting a billboard of sorts to assert the claim.
There is talk in the valley that projects the newly raised demand for a Kaunsarnag yatra as another attempt to dilute the Muslim identity of the Valley and at its extreme a calibrated attempt to change the demography in Kashmir to which the BJP is said to be committed. The ecological element is not overlooked, expressing fears that a yatra could potentially damage the high elevation glaciated areas. The BJP leaders, with a section of the Kashmiri Pandit migrants in tow, haven’t however lost a moment in accusing the State Government of carrying forward the separatist agenda by its studied silence on the issue.
Adding a communal dimension to it, the pro-yatra groupings argue that it is the right of the Hindus to perform their religious duties. The question arises why now? It is poll time, brother, and the BJP and the divided Pandit leadership in Jammu, are keen to be heard at their loudest on an issue which they wrongly assume is close to every Hindu heart.
The BJP has already cast its net in the vulnerable Ladakh region, Prime Minister Modi having taken the first opportunity to “launch” development projects conceived and executed by the UPA regime with Modiji claiming the credit for these. Exactly what Mr. Modi did by hurriedly choosing to flag off the train to Katra (Vaishnodevi)!
No wonder the Chief Minister Omar Abdullah was heard bemoaning the fact that while all these projects (one in Katra ,three in Ladakh) were completed under his watch, the then Prime Minister Manmohan Singh feigned all the while that he was hard-pressed for time to give these a formal green signal, unable to press the start button.
Back to a peek at the poll scene. As mentioned above the PDP patron Mufti Sayeed has been able to bring under his party’s banner a very credible political cadre. In the party ranks you will find eminent economists, senior lawyers, reputed doctors and, of course, a dedicated cadre which he has nursed over the past few decades. His principal opponents of yore, the Abdullahs and their National Conference are a thoroughly demoralized lot. Yes, you can’t probably predict a political washout for the party at the polls but the truth is that Omar Abdullah has not been able to build a relationship of trust with his party cadre, given his air of aloofness.
His father, Dr. Farooq even in his defeat, could have been a source of immense help but the former Union Minister and State Chief Minister is beset by health problems. Besides, committed NC workers will confess openly that they are unable to communicate with Omar. His disenchanted coalition partner, Congress, has already washed its hands off an electoral alliance. not that the Congress Party has much going for it in the State but it could have worked to the NC’s advantage in some restricted pockets in Jammu region.
Regardless of what Ghulam Nabi Azad, the Congress face in the State, might make of the poll-eve scenario, his party doesn’t seem to be a factor in any part of the State, Ladakh included. The BJP, flush with the Modi-led victory in the Parliamentary poll, continues to see its fortunes on the upswing not only in the Jammu region but also in Ladakh. It is hoping to pick up a seat or two from the Valley but that must remain a matter of conjecture.
One does at the same time see Mufti Sayeed’s PDP picking up the odd seat from Jammu, boosting its gains in the Valley. The Mufti has been spending a good deal of time in the region for quite a while now and the loyalty factor of many of his old colleagues in Jammu could work to his advantage in this region. No guesses and no rewards on offer. The Valley to me seems to be going the Mufti way and a few seats gathered from the Jammu region could make him the man of the moment in the State, the BJP willing.
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