Anil Anand
It is often said politics is an art of the possible or an art to find probabilities even if there are visibly none. In practical form politics is a unique science which does new explorations by the day, make strange bedfellows and often compromise on ideologies with single-mindedly focus on grabbing power- by hook or crook. That has become the crux of the modern day politics particularly in India.
There could be no glaring example of this art of possibilities and probabilities than what is happening in Bihar ahead of the assembly elections. The news makers are the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) led by BJP and which till the other day consisted of allies such as chief minister Mr Nitish Kumar’s Janata Dal -United or JD(u), and the real explorer of the art of possibilities who was given the sobriquet of “weatherman” by none other than repressible, now jailed, Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) supremo, Mr Lalu Prasad Yadav, for correctly reading the direction of the political winds and accordingly manipulate moves to remain in power- Mr Ram Vilas Paswan founder of the Lok Jan Shakti Party (LJSP) who unfortunately breathed his last before fighting another electoral battle.
The LJSP has presently become the fulcrum of this political exploratory mission. Strange as it might sound but it is incredible that the LJSP is part of the NDA and at the same time it is not. The sudden declaration by the LJSP’s young president and son of Paswan senior, Mr Chirag Paswan that his party would go it alone in Bihar elections but at the same time remain part of the NDA in Delhi, has added a strong element of mystique in the otherwise interesting electoral battle of Bihar.
What does this move announced by Mr Chirag Paswan but definitely with the blessings of his deceased father who was manipulating political moves from his hospital bed in Delhi where he breathed his last, mean in the broader context of BJP-led NDA politics? If this move had the blessings of the “weatherman Paswan”, it can also not be without the blessings of the two top leaders of the BJP, Prime Minister, Mr Narendra Modi and Home Minister, Mr Amit Shah. That makes this move interesting on the political chess board of the state.
There are multiple theories in circulation as to the cause and reason behind the LJSP’s move. It was well known that Paswan senior was facing serious health issues and that he would not be able to campaign for his party, before his end came. The motive behind going solo is being seen as an attempt by him to create an independent niche for his son in Bihar politics and is a future investment even if this fails to fructify during this election. This is a plausible theory and believable as well but it would be interesting to see how Chirag plough’s a lonely furrow in the absence of his illustrious father in the face of grave danger from his allies and opponents to lay a siege on the LJSP.
But this is not the only cause. How is it going to benefit the BJP? By remaining part of the NDA in Delhi and Modi-Shah duo gleefully permitting this dual arrangement, was meant to help Paswan senior to keep his ministerial berth intact at the Centre. This context has since changed generating interest as to who would from LJSP replace its founder in the Union cabinet. So, it is difficult to perceive that the LJSP’s move on ‘ekla chalo’ is either arbitrary or unilateral. Even if Mr Nitish Kumar is not on board, the BJP certainly is.
How would the BJP which is desperately trying to emerge number one in the state, would be benefitted by this move? Firstly, it smacks of a divide and rule syndrome with two front-ranking political players of Bihar- LJSP and Janata Dal(u) being pitted against each with BJP enjoying company of both; JD(u) as part of the NDA in Bihar and LJSP part of it in Delhi.
On the face of it the BJP top brass has reiterated that the leader of the combine or the chief minister face would remain to be Mr Kumar but it is also a well known fact that not much love is lost between him and the BJP in Bihar and that the latter is desperate to have its own chief minister in whatever coalition. With Mr Ram Vilas Paswan having publically stated that his son could be a chief minister face and BJP having its own ambitions for the top post in the state, the pressure is certainly on Mr Kumar.
So it clearly seems that Mr Kumar or his JD (u) is sandwiched between BJP and LJSP. It would be naive to say that he is unaware of all these theories or possibilities. True to his style he has maintained a studied silence but pressure is clearly on him. Although both BJP and JD (u) are contesting an equal number of seats but the catch lies in the situation wherein if the latter wins lesser number of seats than the saffron party. In such an event the LSJP with whatever seats it wins could play a pivotal role. Given the current form of the BJP, the JD (u) and LJSP, and also the opposition RJD and Congress would have to go an extra mile to keep their flock together in case of a divide mandate.
The LJSP’s decision to contest election alone is quite an adventurist move and could face many road blocks particularly now in the absence of Paswan senior. Even elements within the party feel that it will be a tall order for the Paswan’s to make a mark in these elections. The biggest problem would be who would lead the charge both on and off the field (read political machinations) with Chirag still being a political novice. The burden would lie on his shoulders who has also declared his ambitions for the chief minister’s slot and his first cousin, Mr Prince Paswan, MP who is also chief of the party’s Bihar unit. Both are new and political greenhorns.
The Paswan’s have created a strange situation for themselves in these elections. While they have already opened front against Mr Kumar and his party, strangely they have clarified that the LJSP would not utter a word against BJP during the campaign. Mr Chirag Paswan has already issued an appeal asking voters in Bihar to desist from voting for the JD (u) as they have been neglected by the Nitish Kumar-led government. Strangely, he predicted that the next government would be of the BJP-LJSP combine one. That truly makes look the NDA as the theatre of the absurd. Only time would tell if this absurdity would deliver results to the satisfaction of all three-BJP, JD (u) and LJSP.
The LJSP is already adding spice to the poll scene and the road which it wishes to adopt ahead. The one strong indicator are the posters which are visible on Patna street with a catchy but significant slogan; “BJP se koyee bair nahi, Nitish ke khair nahi (We have no enmity with the BJP but we are going to teach Nitish Kumar a lesson).”
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