Harihar Swarup
One may like it or not, Narendra Modi’s campaign has become Modi-centric. Ever since he was named BJP’s Prime Ministerial candidate, Modi’s campaign has turned into one-man show. The tone and tenor of his electioneering from its very inception has had overtones of the individualism. The poll publicity magnifies Modi’s image at the expense of that of the party. Voters have been asked to vote not so much for the lotus symbol but for Modi. “Modi is the party; Modi is the manifesto”, is the refrain of party workers who, indeed, demoralized before Modi’s advent on the scene, have enlivened up once more.
Even Maharashtra Navnirman Sena Chief, Raj Thackeray, has chosen to support Modi, saying that his support to the BJP was entirely dependent on Modi being the Prime Ministerial candidate. If the NDA decides on another candidate under pressure from allies, his offer would lapse. “I am clear I will support the BJP only because of Modi”, he says.
Several senior party leaders, however, deny that there is a Modi wave but admit that there is an upsurge of support for the BJP as a whole. This is a fact that the so called Modi wave has weakened in Bihar and Lalu-Congress combine, at the time of writing this column, has been surging ahead. In Punjab, there has been an anti-incumbency wave against Prakash Singh Badal and the Akali-BJP alliance is not as powerful as it was in assembly election. The impact of anti-incumbency is clearly seen in the prestigious Amritsar constituency where BJP’s front rank leader, Arun Jaitley, is locked in fierce battle with former Chief Minister, Capt. Amrinder Singh. It is no longer a cakewalk for the BJP stalwart.
The BJP has wisely relied on the theme of development and decisive leader in its poll campaign and it appears to have yielded results but in the second half of the 2014 poll campaign, some party members veered round to sowing seeds of divisiveness and hate. One wonders if the BJP is going back to its old, worn-out Hindutva agenda to sharpen polarization around Hindu-Muslim lines.
First, there was BJP candidate Giriraj Singh whose statement — “those who do not support Modi, will have no place in India because their place will be in Pakistan” — went beyond usual poll-time poll hate rhetoric. Seen as a warning to Muslims, such a mindset has implications for a democratic polity like India. After Giriraj, came Mukhtar Abbas Naqvi; he raked up temple issue which has been relegated to the back page of the BJP’s manifesto as a token homage to hard liners. Now there are reports of Praven Togadia’s shocking diatribe calling on Hindus to force eviction of Muslims from their homes.
BJP’s top brass has rebuked Giriraj Singh but worry persists about the role differences and dissent would have on Modi dispensation. This, however, does not exonerate the hate rhetoric of other side-statement of Congress candidate, Imran Masood, in Saharanpur about chopping up Modi. One wonders if the remarks of Naqvi, Giriraj or Togadia, or earlier of Amit Shah, were off the cuff comments?
BJP has played four cards in the campaign in varying degrees-development, strong leadership, OBC factor and Hindu-Muslim polarization. When Narendra Modi campaign kicked off, the emphasis was on development. The BJP’s Prime Ministerial candidate was called new ‘Vikas Purus’. Such was the campaign offensive mounted about him and the “Gujarat” model, surpassing mobilization around Ram Janmabhoomi movement, with rallies, video raths carrying Modi’s message, ad campaigns, social media going viral with his views, its impact was summed up in the words of a Mumbai ‘UP Bhiayya’ taxi walla, “our people are saying, this time let us try Modi. They say he has done something in Gujarat.”
Politics is all about perception. The development Mantra had attracted youth and made those who stunned BJP in the past, were angered by Congress’s arrogance of power look at Hindutva’s poster boys with new eyes. The second slogan about the need for a strong leader also resonated with the urban middle class which influences almost 200 Lok Sabha seats as of today. The BJP played the OBC card with effect in Hindi belt propagating the possibility of the first-ever OBC Prime Minister in Modi.
Meanwhile, in a bid to stop Modi in the post-poll scenario, the Congress has expressed its readiness to back any “stop Modi” group. It won’t insist on leading a Non-NDA formation. The Congress also feels that the BJP and its allies won’t cross 230 mark. The party sees its “complete flexibility” about either propping up or participating in a non-NDA formation as a major strength to attracting allies as against the BJP commitment to protect Modi as PM.
The Congress’s calculation, however, rests on a big if, that the perceived Modi surge fails to take NDA close to the halfway — 272 Lok Sabha seats– and Modi and his allies are left stranded at 220-230 mark. Internal assessment within the Congress gives the party around 120 seats when the votes are counted. If this assessment is correct, there is nevertheless a scenario in which the Congress can play a critical role in the formation of the next Government. (IPA)
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