Brij Bhardwaj
Recent elections for five State Assemblies have broken many myths as indicated by results in which BJP made a clean sweep in four States of U.P., Goa, Uttrakhand and Manipur while Aam Aadmi Party captured Punjab. The first misconception to be shattered was that crowds at public meetings do not bring votes. Second was that leaders do not bring votes when they change parties and cross over.
In U.P. for instance, Samajwadi Party leader Akhilesh Yadav attracted huge crowds but did not win. He improved his tally many times but could not come even close to BJP. Consolidation of Yadavs, Muslims and Jats in his favour lead to counter consolidation of Upper caste Hindus and other backward classes. Elections also showed BJP which in the past had a strong urban base has now spread its wings to rural India. Backed by strong party cadre and proper selection of candidates it won with a comfortable majority.
The biggest point in favour of BJP which was not noticed is strong delivery system. In the past top Congress leaders including Rajiv Gandhi admitted that out of one rupee spent by the Government on welfare schemes only twenty five paisa reached beneficiaries. Thanks to Aadhar card system which BJP inherited thanks to efforts of Congress, Government delivery was almost perfect during the rule of Prime Minister Narendra Modi.
Be it transfer of cash to farmers, gas cylinders for poor, free rations for unemployed, housing loans or subsidy for building toilets, there were no complaints about delivery . All admitted when asked by media persons in remote villages that they got free rations and subsidies without problem. Another benefit was improved law and order. Even if one were to admit that dons belonging to minority community received rough treatment from police, one has to accept that all Mafia dons became inactive or were eliminated following strong action by police.
Yet another lesson learnt during current poll was that while BJP could keep factionalism under control, Congress lost many seats as the party leaders worked as a divided house and damaged party prospects in States like Punjab and Uttrakhand. Absence of senior leaders as party managers and overdependence on Gandhi family damaged prospects. Wastage of resources in organising over 200 rallies in U.P where Congress won just two seats could have been better utilised in Goa and Uttrakhand .
Priyanka Gandhi in U.P picked up a good strategy and got media attention but could not win seats in absence of any organisation . Lesson was clear, Congress has few leaders who can attract crowds but to win seats you need a party set up and strong candidates. Result of State polls is that BJP has created strong foundation for coming poll for Lok Sabha elections in 2024. Congress Party on the other hand has created doubts about its ability to emerge as main opposition party.
After the State poll cries for forming a national alternative by regional parties coming together has grown. Aam Aadmi Party and Trinamool Congress are working overtime to emerge as alternative to Congress and are poaching its ranks. The opposition leaders are no more talking of unity to defeat BJP and are instead working against each other. There are regional parties like Shiv Sena , DMK and few others sitting on the fence . In the coming poll BJP will face a challenge in many States in South and East but there will be no national challenge.
Congress Party which will challenge BJP in nearly half the seats to be elected to Lok Sabha in 2024 will be weaker and Modi brand will be stronger. This will create a situation in which people are likely to follow his leadership as he has emerged as a strong and tried leader. Particularly as international challenge in coming days will be stronger. Gone are the times when Congress had leaders who attracted crowds and party had election machinery which could deliver .
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