Brij Bhardwaj
The big lesson of elections held for five State Assemblies, which was called semi-final by many before the Lok Sabha polls in 2024, was that incumbency was a rule; anyone who won again was an exception. Out of the five States where elections were held, four have defeated party in power and have voted for a change. Congress lost Chhattisgarh and Rajasthan where BJP has been voted to power. In addition BJP has retained Madhya Pradesh where it has been in power for four terms, with about a year’s rule by Congress party in between.
Congress has won Telengana defeating a regional party. In Mizoram a constituent of NDA has been ousted by a group of young men who have supported a civil society group. So the score is three for BJP, one for Congress and one for a new player on the scene.
Yet another lesson is that there is incumbency not only against Chief Ministers and ruling party, but also against members of the Assembly. It has been noted that thirty to forty per cent of members are changed every time elections are held. Either the ruling drops them, or they are defeated in the polls. As a result half the members are new after every election.
Difference to the outcome was made by Prime Minister Modi’s popularity and organisational strength of the BJP. It has been noted that not only voters have to be persuaded to vote for a candidate or a party but also made to come out and vote on polling day. Here comes into play the organisational strength and booth management. It has been noted that in many cases BJP scored because of better booth management.
One more factor is challenge of reaching out to voters in distant places, and in many cases personal contact becomes more important instead of posters, public rallies or road shows. The role of dedicated RSS workers in this context has played a big role and in some cases turned marginal seats in favour of BJP. The strong organisation of BJP and presence of workers in remote areas played a big role in winning over seats in constituencies dominated by tribals.
Yet another lesson of the current poll is that women no more follow men in making a choice of party or candidate while voting. Any party which wins women votes generally wins the election. It has also been found that percentage of women voting has been on the rise constantly. Congress party won over women voters in Karnataka and won, while BJP was the choice of women voters in Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan as well as Chhattisgarh, hence emerged as winners.
Indian elections have become a sophisticated process and require proper management skills at all levels. You have to build a narrative and convey the same to voters. As a result parties carry out surveys before polls and while selecting the candidates. The present semi-finals also exposed the pollsters’ inability to read the mind of voters. All without exception said Congress is winning Chhattisgarh and there will be close fight in Madhya Pradesh. Both the predictions were off the mark by a big margin.
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