Bolton departure may boost Iran talks, but better US-Russia ties unlikely: Ex-UN Diplomat

WASHINGTON, Sept 12: President Donald Trump’s decision to drop National Security Adviser John Bolton may advance US talks with Iran, but is unlikely to improve relations with Russia before the 2020 elections for president of the United States, former UN Special Rapporteur Richard Falk told Sputnik.
Asked whether US negotiations with Iran were now likely to accelerate following Bolton’s announced departure, Falk replied on Wednesday, “Yes, I think this is the most likely takeaway.”
Trump was more likely to reduce the dangers of conflict in the Middle East than Bolton would have preferred, Falk, who is Professor Emeritus of International Law at Princeton University and former United Nations Special Rapporteur on Human Rights in Palestine, said.
“It would appear that Trump is less confrontational in the Middle East than Bolton, and apparently especially with respect to Iran. Bolton is unusually belligerent even among neocon foreign policy experts,” Falk said.
Trump might therefore now be more inclined to seek a compromise agreement to end his confrontation with Iran, Falk suggested.
“There may be now a sense that the ‘deal of the century’ will fizzle, and that the only dramatic move would be to remove the danger of war by reaching some renewed agreement with Iran on its nuclear program, claiming it is an improvement on the 2015 agreement,” he said.
Trump also had indicated he wanted to improve relations with Russia, but was unlikely to risk do internal criticism on the issue before the November 2020 elections, Falk observed.
“Yes, but it is unlikely this will be made clear prior to 2020 elections for American domestic reasons,” he said.
Trump’s strategic political goal was to display to the American people that he was working for peace and reduced tensions around the world when he ran for reelection next year, Falk explained.
“Trump, with an eye toward 2020 elections, may seek to present himself as working toward accommodation rather than war and fulfill his 2016 campaign promises of lower profile military presence in the region,” he said.
However, the controversial US president could still inflame tensions with different countries around the world unexpectedly, Falk cautioned.
“Trump is overall too unpredictable to anticipate any coherence in his diplomatic approach, which is dangerous as it could lead to miscalculation by others and by the United States,” he said.
Before he was forced to resign, Bolton appeared to have intervened to successfully wreck Trump’s negotiations on Afghanistan with the Taliban, Falk noted.
“He [Bolton] has consistently opposed what I call ‘restorative diplomacy’ seeking some kind of accommodation by way of negotiated agreements,” he said.
Nevertheless, despite Bolton’s departure, it was unlikely that the United States would seek to revive the Qatar negotiations with the Taliban, Falk advised.
“This seems unlikely, at least in the short run,” he said.
The Trump administration officials were likely to continue their efforts to topple the government of democratically-elected President Nicolas Maduro in Venezuela, Falk added.
(AGENCIES)

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