Brinkmanship in Kashmir

Inder Jit
Storm clouds gathering over Kashmir over the past few months seem to have largely blown over. Sheikh Abdullah has advisedly visited New Delhi and had a quiet, long meeting with Mrs Gandhi. Happily, this enabled them to talk to each other instead of talking at each other — Indirectly. The Sheikh has tried to set the record straight, especially in regard to his now famous speech on Martyrs Day, whose significance is not always understood fully in the country. It commemorates martyrs who courageously laid down their lives fighting Pakistani aggression in 1947. What the Sheikh stated on the occasion, New Delhi has been assured, was essentially rhetoric– an emotional speech on an emotional occasion. Further, the Sheikh stands by his basic ties with India. The speech should not have normally raised the furor it did. But then we are not living in normal times. New Delhi’s relationship with Srinagar still suffers from the hangover of long years of mutual suspicion and distrust.
There is no gainsaying the fact that the Sheikh’s speech as reported made most people at the Centre sit up. Not a few MPs and newsmen complimented Dr Karen Singh the following day in Parliament’s Central Hall for reacting promptly to the Sheikh’s statement. Dr Karan Singh, it may be recalled, described as “astounding” the Sheikh’s reported view that “neither India nor Pakistan can enslave us”. He wondered if the Sheikh meant that Kashmir was “equidistant” as between India and Pakistan. Or, did the statement mean that he was “once again set on the disastrous course that he followed for over two decades”. Many in New Delhi expected the Sheikh to respond at least to Dr Karan Singh’s broadside and clarify matters especially since Indo-Pakistan talks were due to be held the same week. But no such clarification came and the misunderstanding was allowed to snowball enabling the Sheikh’s detractors to joyfully assert: “We told you so. The Sheikh has not changed from 1953!”
My own talk with Sheikh Abdullah as also with some other top people has left me with the impression that the Sheikh appears to be more sinned against than sinning. If the Sheikh has been roaring like a wounded lion and urging the young “Sher-i-Kashmirs” to be watchful, the reason is not far to see. Sheikh Abdullah has essentially been reacting to fresh fears and suspicions aroused in his mind about the plans of the Congress (I) and, more particularly, of the late Sanjay Gandhi and his Youth Congress associates in regard to Jammu and Kashmir. The Sheikh himself confirmed he had heard talk that Sanjay Gandhi had set his mind on toppling his government as nine other State Governments had been toppled. Initially, he dismissed the talk as mere rumour. But then the doings of local Congress (I) men in the State and the indulgence shown to them by the party High Command only lent credence to the talk.
One thing has followed another according to a pattern over the past six months and more. Indeed, the Sheikh recited on Wednesday a couplet of Ghalib to say: “Thi khabr garam ke Ghalib ke urengay purze: Dekhne hum bhi gaye, par tamasha na hua. (The air was thick with talk that Ghalib would be torn to pieces; We too joined the eager crowd but the tamasha did not take place.) Few things have helped the Sheikh to reach a firm conclusion more than the decision of the Congress (I) in the State to encourage one of the Sheikh’s Ministers, Mian Bashir, to defect to the Congress(I) in defiance of the State’s Anti-defection Law. Further, Mian Bashir has gone to the Supreme Court to challenge the law. The Sheikh cannot surely be blamed if he feels that this is perhaps the first move in New Delhi’s “Operation Topple” to buy over his men, especially since what has come to pass could not have possibly taken place without the active knowledge, indeed consent, of the party’s Central leadership.
Over the months, the Congress (I) has not always functioned as a responsible Opposition, ignoring two basic factors. First, its own party led by no less than Mrs Gandhi, herself is in power at the Centre. Second, Kashmir continues to be a sensitive and strategic border State. Not very long ago, the Sheikh Government abolished subsidy on food and in one overdue and welcome step sought to bring the State on par with the rest of the country. This measure should have been welcomed by all the national parties. Yet, the Sheikh’s decision, taken in response to New Delhi’s wishes and amounting to a sizable saving for the Centre, was strongly opposed by the local Congress (I) and popular sentiment roused against it. Again, the State Government gladly accepted the Centre’s suggestion recently and increased public transport charges to meet the hike in the prices of petrol. But the local Congress (I) launched a strong agitation against it and even seemed hell-bent on creating a law and order problem.
Not just that. The Sheikh has also been left with two clear impressions in regard to the Centre’s attitude towards him. First, the Centre, he feels, does not give him his due by way of confidence and trust. Second, New Delhi seems determined to denigrate him in the eyes of his people and, worse, add insult to injury. The Sheikh, I am told, has found himself severely criticised both by the Centre and the local Congress (I) even when he has taken firm action against known anti-national elements and infiltrators often required to be kept under Preventive Detention at the instance of the Army authorities anxious to trace and break spy rings. At the same time, he has felt hurt when senior Central Ministers, whom he describes as “big guns”, have hurled charges at him publicly and also labelled him communal and accused him of joining hands with the Jana Sangh. (There are few things in which the Sheikh takes greater pride than his commitment to secularism as an article of faith. “Otherwise”, he tells you, “I could have opted for Pakistan, which would have given me better positions.”)
The Sheikh has, no doubt, used the Hazrat Bal over the decades for making important pronouncements. But the Congress (I) charge that he has entered into an alliance with communal elements is worse than the pot calling the kettle black. True, the National Conference and the Bharatiya Janata Party are today jointly running the Jammu Municipality. But this has come to pass only after the civic elections had failed to give a majority to any one party. (The BJP won 11 seats, the Congress (I) 7 plus 1 Independent and the National Conference 4 in a house of 23.) Again, the National Conference initially approached the Congress (I) for a poll understanding. Later it wanted all the three parties to run the civic body together and proposed Presidentship for the BJP and Vice-Presidentship for the Congress (I). The Congress (I) again refused. The National Conference eventually joined bands with the BJP to avoid fresh elections. At any rate, the BJP cannot be considered communal, even if it mainly comprises members of the erstwhile Jana Sangh. Moreover, Mr Vajpayee and other BJP leaders accepted special status for Kashmir under the Constitution as Janata men — and have stuck to the same policy.
The Sheikh’s speech on Martyr’s Day should thus be viewed not only in terms of rhetoric and emotional outburst. It must also be seen against the backdrop of the overall approach and attitude of the Congress (I) men inside the State and, more important, of its leaders at the Centre. (Two other points may also be mentioned. First, in the Lok Sabha poll, Sanjay Gandhi handpicked from the valley a young associate by the name of Mr Ghulam Nabi and got him elected to the Lok Sabha from Maharashtra with a majority of over 1,00,000 votes. The young man, it is said, got barely 300 votes in his own home State — Kashmir. Second, efforts are on to get the Sheikh’s arch opponent, Mirza Afzal Beg, to join the Congress (I) notwithstanding his poor health.) In the circumstances, it is not easy to fault the Sheikh for wanting to be on his guard in the light of his “bitter experience”. Indeed, he told me: “Even in 1953 I was hearing talk about a move to topple me. But I refused to believe that my good friend Jawaharlal Nehru could ever be a party to such a plot. Events, however, proved me wrong. I cannot, therefore, take any chance a second time. I would be a fool to do so.”
All this is not to suggest that everything is nice and beautiful in the State. The administration leaves much to be desired and corruption has reportedly become rampant. The Sheikh has, no doubt, started coming down heavily on the corrupt elements for the past several months. Action has been taken even against top officials including a Chief Engineer. But a lot more remains to be done to infuse confidence among the people. The recent by-elections to the Lok Sabha and the State Assembly from Ladakh and Jammu show that the National Conference as a regional party has lost ground in two of the State’s three areas. The Sheikh has reaffirmed that his life is “an open book”. He has also done well to disclose that he had sent a detailed reply to Mr Morarji Desai rebutting various charges against him and that the latter had felt satisfied. However, he has still to take note of many stories that accuse him of running the State as his own Sheikhdom. In addition, attention has to be paid to reports that rabid communal and pro-Pakistan elements have lately increased their activity in the State.
What of the future? Much will depend on both sides — in Kashmir and the Congress (I) and other national parties at the Centre. The Sheikh continues to enjoy an unassailable position in the State and towers above all else, whatever his alleged failings and foibles. Advisedly, he has indicated his mind in regard to the future leadership of the National Conference and thereby cry a halt to the power struggle. (Few have noted a significant aspect of the Martyrs’ Day meeting at which the Sheikh said that the State’s future would be safe in the hands of Kashmir’s young shers. Dr. Farooq Abdullah, who is making a mark in the Lok Sabha, was at hand. Mr G.M. Shah, the Sheikh’s son-in-law and a strong contender for leadership, was conspicuous by his absence.) Mrs Gandhi has also done well to assure the Sheikh that there is no move on her part to destabilize his Government. But at a time when there is trouble all around and Pakistan is reviving interest in Kashmir, there is need to exercise circumspection and vigilance on all sides — and eschew brinkmanship. (INFA)